Boise State’s College Football Playoff odds plummet following South Florida loss

Broncos are +920 to reach College Football Playoff

South Florida quarterback Byrum Brown runs over Boise State defensive back A'Marion McCoy. | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

A disastrous Week 1 road loss to South Florida has knocked Boise State down the Group of Five pecking order in the College Football Playoff betting odds. 

According to the latest odds from FanDuel, the Broncos (0-1) are +920 to make a return trip to the CFP. Boise State entered last week at +184 to reach the 12-team playoff for the second straight year. 

Tulane is now the favorite to represent the Group of Five in the CFP at +520. The Green Wave routed Big Ten opponent Northwestern 23-3 last week to open the season. 

Fellow American Conference contender Navy is also above Boise State in the CFP odds at +880, followed by South Florida (+920) and Memphis (+980).

Bulls head coach Alex Golesh called his team’s 34-7 drubbing of Boise State “a really gritty game.”

“I was really glad to see our guys respond in a positive way. It wasn’t awesome early offensively for us … and then we felt like to get going, we had to shoot the ball down the field and were able to connect on enough of them to kind of spring the offense,” Golesh said. 

Aug 28, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; South Florida Bulls quarterback Byrum Brown (17) runs the ball against the Boise State Broncos in the second quarter at Raymond James Stadium. | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The Sun Belt has two CFP contenders: James Madison (+540) and Texas State (+1800). Texas State is joining the Pac-12 next summer alongside Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State of the MWC. 

Liberty is the top contender in Conference USA with +1260 odds to reach the CFP. 

Boise State still leads the way in the CFP odds among MWC teams, followed by UNLV (+1500), Air Force (+2500), Fresno State (+3500), Colorado State (+5000) and San Diego State (+5000). 

The five highest-rated conference champions in the final CFP rankings receive automatic bids to the playoff. 

The Broncos jumped out to a 7-0 lead at South Florida but surrendered 34 unanswered points to close the game. 

Aug 28, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Boise State Broncos offensive lineman Kage Casey (77) looks on against the South Florida Bulls in the first quarter at Raymond James Stadium. | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

“We got beat in all three phases,” Boise State head coach Spencer Danielson said after the game. “I told our team that I’m not running from that, that happened. Offensively, defensively and special teams, we got beat.

“We just didn’t execute well in the critical moments. … Across the board, there’s critical moments that we just didn’t win. And that’s on me as a coach to look and see why.”

During the 2024 season, Boise State won a second straight MWC title and reached the CFP for the first time in program history. The Broncos fell to Penn State in a Fiesta Bowl quarterfinal. 

Odds are courtesy of FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.