Boise State vs. Fresno State picks, predictions for college football Week 10 matchup

Boise State will look to snap a two-game losing streak against rival Fresno State and reclaim the Milk Can Trophy.

Saturday’s Mountain West game between the Broncos (6-2, 4-0) and Bulldogs (5-3, 2-2) will kick off at 1:30 p.m. Mountain time at Albertsons Stadium.

Fresno State has prevailed in the last two rivalry matchups with Boise State, including a 28-16 victory on The Blue in December 2022.

Boise State is favored by 17.5 points in the rivalry matchup. The over/under is set at 50.5 points.

Will Boise State extend its lead in the MWC standings with another home victory?

Here is a look at some predictions and picks from national media outlets heading into Saturday’s game.

FOX Sports: Boise State 38, Fresno State 14

Rationale: FOX Sports predictions are made using the Data Skrive betting model.

Bald Faced Truth by John Canzano: Boise State 34, Fresno State 13

Rationale: “The Broncos managed only 24 points against Nevada last week. The Wolfpack defense loaded up at the line of scrimmage and held Boise State to 2.8 rushing yards per carry. Defenses are going to do that until QB Maddux Madsen makes them pay for it. … The home field is big, and we’re at the point of the season where the good teams are separating. Fresno State is going to struggle to score points. Give me Boise State to win and cover.”

Victor King, Winners and Whiners: Boise State -17.5

Rationale: “On paper, the Bulldogs don’t look like a bad defensive team. They allow 182.1 passing yards (23rd nationally) and 132.3 rushing yards (51st). However, their run defense has fallen apart over the last two games. … Hereof, I can only look at Boise State in this game. The Broncos have weapons to hurt their rivals both on the ground and through the air, while their defensive unit is coming off its best game of the season. They’ll win the 2025 Milk Can Game and cover the spread along the way.”

Seamus Cole, Stat Salt: Boise State -17

Rationale: “Boise State hasn't lost against the spread since the first game of this season. For that alone, I might as well stick to what has been working. However, there is more to it. Fresno State has officially benched E.J. Warner and replaced him with Carson Conklin, who didn't exactly wow anyone with his last performance.”

Odds are courtesy of FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.