Boise State vs. New Mexico picks, predictions for college football Week 6 matchup

Broncos favored by 16.5 points in Mountain West game

Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen hands off to running back Sire Gaines. | Michael Caterina-Imagn Images

Boise State is a big favorite entering Saturday’s Mountain West home matchup with New Mexico. 

The Broncos (3-2, 1-0) are favored by 16.5 points over the Lobos (3-2, 0-1). The over/under is set at 58.5 points. 

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. at Albertsons Stadium. The game will air live on FS1. 

Will the Broncos extend their home winning streak to 15 games against the Lobos? 

Here is a look at some predictions and picks from national media outlets heading into Saturday’s game.

FOX Sports: Boise State 30, New Mexico 25

Rationale: FOX Sports predictions are made using the Data Skrive betting model. 

Bald Faced Truth by John Canzano: Boise State 40, New Mexico 23

Rationale: “The Lobos didn’t get it done on the road at San Jose State last week, and nothing here makes me think they can do it on the blue turf in Boise. Boise State’s offense shouldn’t have any problems scoring in this game. Put the Broncos down for 40 or so. New Mexico is well coached, but still a year or two away from being up to this tough road challenge.”

Ron Counts, HERO Sports: Boise State 30, New Mexico 14

Rationale: “I anticipate this game is going to come down to which team’s backfield has a better day. Both have plenty of talent. … I think New Mexico is going to have a much more difficult time moving the ball on the ground than the Broncos.”

David Marotta, Winners and Whiners: New Mexico +16

Rationale: “New Mexico’s only double-digit loss this season came in the opener at Michigan, 34–17. Since then, the Lobos have looked sharper offensively and shown enough balance to hang around against solid teams. Boise State’s run defense has been shaky, and with New Mexico finding a better rhythm through the air, the Lobos have the tools to stay within two touchdowns, even if an outright upset is unlikely.”

Nikos Lagouretos, Sports Chat Place: Boise State -16.5

Rationale: “In their previous meeting in 2023, Boise State won 42-14 at home, and is 9-1 in its last 10 meetings against New Mexico. … Both teams have identical records, but Boise State has won and dominated both home games, winning by 33 and 37 points. The Broncos also dominate the Lobos in recent years, and I expect them to get the job done at home in a comfortable fashion.”

Odds are courtesy of FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.