Updated Mountain West championship game scenarios entering final day of regular season

UNLV hoping to join Boise State, New Mexico, San Diego State atop standings

Boise State's Max Cutforth, Matt Wagner. | Boise State Athletics

Friday’s action left Boise State, New Mexico and San Diego State in a three-way tie for first place in the Mountain West standings. 

UNLV will look to join the group with a victory over Nevada in Saturday’s regular-season finale. The rivalry game between the Rebels (9-2, 5-2) and Wolf Pack (3-8, 2-5) will kick off at 7 p.m. Mountain time and air live nationally on CBS Sports Network. 

The Rebels are favored by 7.5 points on the road. 

Boise State (8-4, 6-2), New Mexico (9-3, 6-2) and San Diego State (9-3, 6-2) are rooting for the Wolf Pack to pull the upset, eliminating UNLV from MWC championship game contention. With a win, the Rebels would finish in a four-way tie for first place. 

Regardless of Saturday’s result in Reno, computer rankings will be used to determine the two participants in next week’s MWC championship game. 

In a three-way tie scenario between Boise State, New Mexico and San Diego State, head-to-head results lead to gridlock as each team went 1-1 against the other two. A four-way tie would also go straight to computer rankings as San Diego State and UNLV did not play each other during the regular season. 

The Rebels’ lone losses came against Boise State and New Mexico. Since UNLV missed San Diego State, head-to-head performance does not come into the equation to eliminate the Rebels. 

To solve a three-way or four-way tie, the championship game participants will be selected by an average across four computer rankings: Connelly SP+, SportSource, ESPN’s SOR and KPI Rankings.

The SportSource rankings are not provided to the public. Entering this week, San Diego State had the highest average ranking in the other three metrics, followed by UNLV, Boise State and New Mexico.

ESPN’s SOR and the KPI Rankings were updated after Friday’s results. The Connelly SP+ will update after Saturday’s action. 

Here is where each team stands in the three public metrics as of Saturday morning: 

UNLV

Connelly SP+: 36

ESPN’s SOR: 41

KPI Rankings: 43

Average: 40

San Diego State

Connelly SP+: 27

ESPN’s SOR: 54

KPI Rankings: 49

Average: 43.33

Boise State 

Connelly SP+: 55

ESPN’s SOR: 51

KPI Rankings: 40

Average: 48.67

New Mexico

Connelly SP+: 70

ESPN’s SOR: 42

KPI Rankings: 44

Average: 52

The final computer results will be announced on Sunday morning. When the two participants are selected, head-to-head record will then be used to determine the host. 

San Diego State, which suffered a 23-17 double-overtime loss at New Mexico on Friday, is in good shape to snag one of the two championship game berths. 

Boise State, the two-time defending MWC champion, and New Mexico will be rooting hard for Nevada to upset the Rebels. 

The Broncos have won two straight games, including a 25-24 come-from-behind road victory over Utah State on Friday. 

Odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.