Pac-12 Basketball Preview: A Tight Race Looms; Cal Hopes to Escape Lower Division
UPDATED, Tuesday afternoon
The Pac-12 Conference appears to have no great men’s basketball teams, but a healthy handful of pretty good ones. That should make for an intriguing conference season, which gets under way in earnest on Thursday.
Every team except USC already has played at least one Pac-12 game, but COVID-19 has created an unusual schedule in which teams played early conference games then stepped away for more non-league action.
No. 21 Oregon is the Pac-12’s only representative in the AP Top 25, but the Ducks will be challenged by UCLA, USC, Arizona, Stanford and Arizona State in what could become a tangle in the league’s upper division.
The Ducks are the Pac-12’s highest-rated team (No. 17) in the Pomeroy efficiency ratings and in the Sagarin computer rankings (No. 19). The NCAA’s first NET rankings have not yet been released.
Cal, which has won three in a row, already has lost twice in Pac-12 and still has not conquered its biggest issue in recent years — winning on the road. The Bears are 0-3 in road games this season and 2-23 on their opponent’s home floor since the start of the 2018-19 campaign.
The Bears resume Pac-12 play Thursday on the road vs. Oregon.
Here’s our conference preview:
Chris Duarte
Photo by Chris Pietsch, Eugene Register-Guard
1. OREGON (6-1, 1-0)
So far: The Ducks fell behind early in a season-opening loss to Missouri, but are unbeaten since with wins over Seton Hall and San Francisco, and a Pac-12 victory at Washington. But Oregon lost starting center N’Faly Dante (8.2 points, 5.8 rebounds) to a torn left ACL against USF on Dec. 17.
Biggest surprise: The Ducks’ Dec. 23 game against UCLA was postponed because of COVID-19 protocols involving the game officials.
Top players: Forward Eugene Omoruyi, a senior transfer from Rutgers, scored 31 points in his Oregon debut and averages a team-best 18.1 points. Senior guard Chris Duarte, an honorable mention All-Pac-12 pick a year ago, contributes 15.4 points points per game. One or the other has led the team in scoring every game.
Going forward: The Ducks should get a boost with the expected return of junior guard Will Richardson, who had surgery on his left thumb Dec. 2 and was projected to miss six weeks. Richardson averaged 11.0 points last season and led the Pac-12 in 3-point accuracy at 46.9 percent.
Games vs. Cal: Thursday at Oregon; Feb. 27 at Cal
Tyger Campbell
Photo by Ken Blaze, USA Today
2. UCLA (5-2, 1-0)
So far: The Bruins opened the season with a loss at San Diego State and are coming off a defeat to Ohio State at Cleveland. In between, they won five in a row, including a conference conquest of Cal and a victory over a solid Marquette squad.
Biggest surprise: Sophomore wing Jaime Jaquez Jr. has made a huge leap in a year, improving his scoring (8.9 points to 13.7), his rebounding (4.8 to 6.0) and his 3-point shooting (31 percent to 46 percent)
Top players: Jaquez, senior guard Chris Smith (12.1 points, 6.7 rebounds) and sophomore point guard Tyler Campbell (11.1 points, 6.9 assists) are among seven players averaging at least 9.0 points.
Going forward: The Bruins are developing into a deep and balanced squad, boasting five players who have double-doubles this season. Sophomore guard Johnny Juzang, a transfer from Kentucky who missed the first four games with a stress reaction in his foot, scored a season-high 13 points in UCLA’s most recent game vs. Ohio State.
Games vs. Cal: Dec. 6 at UCLA (UCLA won 76-56); Jan. 21 at Cal
Evan Mobley
Photo by David Butler II, USA Today
3. USC (5-1, 0-0)
So far: The Trojans have had their past four games postponed or canceled due to COVID-19 issues and had not played since Dec. 8 before beating Santa Clara 86-63 on Tuesday night. They obliterated BYU 79-53 but lost a three-point decision to UConn two days later, both at the Roman Legends Classic in Connecticut.
Biggest surprise: Junior transfer Drew Peterson was a 39-percent shooter in two seasons at Rice. But the 6-foot-8 guard is making 50 percent of his attempts for the Trojans while averaging 11.2 points.
Top players: Evan Mobley, a 7-foot forward, has shown himself to be one of the nation’s elite freshmen. He’s averaging 17.5 points, 8.7 rebounds and 3.0 blocked shots and shoots 64 percent from the field. His brother Isaiah, a 6-10 sophomore, provides 10.0 points and 8.8 rebounds.
Going forward: The Trojans have great size and the best NBA prospect in the Pac-12. They lead the conference in scoring, field-goal accuracy and blocked shots and are second in rebounding margin. Still questions at point guard, but with their size, the Trojans should contend at the top.
Games vs. Cal: Jan. 23 at Cal
Jemarl Baker Jr. (10)
Photo by Kirby Lee, USA Today
4. ARIZONA (7-1, 1-1)
So far: The Wildcats’ non-conference schedule was less than overwhelming but coach Sean Miller’s squad, with so many newcomers, probably needed to build confidence. An 88-74 win over Colorado on Monday in a return to Pac-12 play provided a huge boost. ''We had an energy about us on offense,'' Miller said. ''We executed, we made shots. We were clicking, we were efficient.''
Biggest surprise: Only one of the Wildcats’ top seven scorers — Jermarl Baker Jr. — was on UA’s active roster a year ago.
Top players: Baker has hiked his scoring from 5.7 points per game to a team-best 15.3. He scored 33 points vs. Northern Arizona and 29 vs. Stanford. Georgetown transfer James Akinjo, an Oakland native, had his most efficient game vs. Colorado, scoring 22 points to push his average to 14.5. And 6-11 redshirt sophomore forward Jordan Brown, who played his freshman season at Nevada, is providing 10.6 points and 6.3 rebounds.
Going forward: The Wildcats have lots of new parts, including seven scholarship freshmen from six different countries. So we’re expecting Arizona to gradually improve as the season unfolds. The Cats figure to be a factor in the Pac-12 race, but will not play in the NCAA tournament after announcing a self-imposed one-year postseason ban as a result of the NCAA probe stemming from the 2017 federal investigation into corruption in college basketball and recruiting.
Games vs. Cal: Jan. 30 at Arizona
Oscar da Silva
Photo by Stephen R. Sylvanie, USA Today
5. STANFORD (5-2, 1-0)
So far: The Cardinal experienced a what-if week at the Maui Invitational that was transplanted to Asheville, NC, knocking off then-No. 25 Alabama before losing to college hoops blue bloods North Carolina and Indiana. The Tar Heels, at least, were there for the taking but Stanford could not finish the deal. They have won four in a row since, including a 78-75 win over Arizona that snapped a 20-game losing skid to the Wildcats.
Biggest surprise: Oscar da Silva has been a solid, sometimes-excellent player for Stanford through his first three seasons. But he has blossomed into stardom as a senior, second in the Pac-12 in scoring at 18.9 points per game, including three games of at least 20 with a 32-point performance vs. Cal State Northridge. And he’s been efficient, shooting 67 percent from the field.
Top players: Besides da Silva, fellow senior Daejon Davis is critical to the Cardinal and just needs one point to reach 1,000 for his career. But Davis injured his left leg in the win over Arizona and did not play in the Cardinal’s most recent game, Dec. 21 at Cal State Bakersfield. Freshman Ziaire Williams hasn’t looked like a one-and-done to this point, but has obvious talent and averages 12.0 points and 5.9 rebounds.
Going forward: Bryce Wills and Spencer Jones are solid complementary pieces and the Cardinal is evolving into a strong defensive team. Assuming good health, Stanford should continue to improve, especially when Williams begins to find a groove.
Games vs. Cal: Feb. 4 at Cal; March 6 at Stanford
Remy Martin
Photo by Patrick Breen, Arizona Republic
6. ARIZONA STATE (4-3, 1-0)
So far: The Sun Devils played a challenging non-conference schedule, and couldn’t get it done vs. Villanova or San Diego State. They have dropped two of three since beating Cal and have struggled defensively. Update: ASU's game Thursday at Washington State has been postponed due to COVID-19 issues within the Sun Devils program.
Biggest surprise: The Sun Devils are coming off a 76-63 loss at home to UTEP in which they shot 1-for-18 on 3-pointers. UTEP had lost to Arizona and Saint Mary’s but outscored ASU 43-22 in the second half.
Top players: Senior point guard Remy Martin (16.9 points) is still the Sun Devils’ leader but he has cut down on his turnovers and is shooting less (and more efficiently) while allowing five-star freshman Josh Christopher (16.9 points, 4.6 rebounds) to find his role in the offense. Christopher, the young brother of former Cal star Patrick Christopher, scored 28 points in his second college game against Villanova.
Going forward: Freshman forward Marcus Bagley, the younger brother of young Sacramento Kings star Marvin Bagley, is expected to return after missing the past three games with a calf injury. The Sun Devils hope Bagley (13.0 points, 5.8 rebounds) can help remedy their minus-5.8 rebounding margin.
Games vs. Cal: Dec. 3 at Cal (ASU won 70-62); Jan. 28 at ASU
McKinley Wright IV
Photo by Stephen R. Sylvanie, USA Today
7. COLORADO (6-2, 0-1)
So far: The Buffaloes hit the road twice in non-conference play, beating Kansas State while losing at Tennessee. Senior wing D’Shawn Schwartz, who averaged nearly 10 points last season, missed the first two games while in COVID-19 protocol and hasn’t yet found a rhythm. CU opened Pac-12 play with an 88-74 loss at Arizona on Monday.
Biggest surprise: Senior transfer Jeriah Horne, who made previous stops at Nebraska and Tulsa, is second on the team with a 10.9 scoring average while coming off the bench in every game. The 6-foot-7 forward had 15 points and 11 rebounds in the loss at Tennessee.
Top players: A two-time All-Pac-12 pick and one of the best players CU has produced in recent years, McKinley Wright IV (15.5 points) boasts a 45-to-17 assist-to-turnover ratio and is shooting 57 percent from the field. He has led the team in scoring five times and in assists every game. Evan Battey (9.9 points) and 7-footer Dallas Walton (9.6) provide support.
Going forward: Coach Tad Boyle guided the Buffaloes to the NCAA tournament four times in a span of five seasons through 2015-16, but CU hasn’t made it since. That win over a Kansas State team that lost to Division II Fort Hays State isn’t going to provide much mileage.
Games vs. Cal: Jan. 13 at Colorado; Feb. 13 at Cal
Efe Abogidi
Photo by Robert Hubner, WSU Athletics
8. WASHINGTON STATE (8-0, 1-0)
So far: The Cougars went 7-0 outside the Pac-12 against opponents with a combined record of 9-34, so they still have much to prove. On the other hand, they are off to their best start in 13 years despite losing top scorer and rebounder C.J. Elleby from last season to the NBA draft.
Biggest surprise: Freshman Efe Abogidi was known primarily for a viral video in which he dunked from the free throw line. But the 6-foot-10 center from Nigeria (10.3 points, 9.0 rebounds, 2.1 blocks) has blossomed the past three games, averaging 16.7 points and 13.7 rebounds.
Top players: Senior guard Isaac Bonton has scored double digits every game and leads WSU with a 16.0 scoring averaging. Sophomore guard Noah Williams (13.0 points) has scored 18 or more four times.
Going forward: Second-year coach Kyle Smith has the rebuild ahead of schedule, and highly regarded freshmen Andrej Jakimovski, Carlos Rosario and Dishon Jackson have yet to find their way. Update: WSU's scheduled game Thursday vs. Arizona State has been postpone due to COVID-19 issues within the Sun Devils' program.
Games vs. Cal: Jan. 7 at Cal; Feb. 18 at WSU
Timmy Allen, right
Photo by Jeffrey Swinger, USA Today
9. UTAH (4-1, 1-0)
So far: The Utes opened their season with a Pac-12 win over Washington State, but in their only challenging non-conference game lost by 18 points on the road vs. in-state rival BYU.
Biggest surprise: Alfonso Plummer was a solid JC transfer a year ago, contributing 8.4 points per game, mostly off the bench. He gave a hint of bigger things with a 35-point outburst in a loss to Oregon State in the Pac-12 tournament, and the senior guard from Puerto Rico has averaged 14.8 through the first five games this season.
Top players: Junior forward Timmy Allen, who averaged 17.3 points a year ago, is scoring 15.3 per game this season and is 31 points shy of 1,000 points for his career. Four Utes are averaging between 8.2 and 8.8 points per game.
Going forward: Utah is coming off its first losing conference season since 2013, but the Utes haven’t made the NCAA tournament since 2016. They lead the Pac-12 in turnover margin (plus-9.0) but are going to have to improve their rebounding (minus-5.4) and their field-goal accuracy (43.4), both of which rank 10th in the conference.
Games vs. Cal: Jan. 16 at Utah; Feb. 11 at Cal
Matt Bradley
Photo by Gry A. Vasquez, USA Today
10. CAL (5-4, 0-2)
So far: The Bears opened with a non-conference loss to Pac-12 rival Oregon State and subsequently lost conference games to UCLA and Arizona State. But Cal returns to its conference schedule riding a three-game win streak.
Biggest surprise: Cal had lost four of its first six and trailed the entire game against San Francisco before senior guard Makale Foreman nailed a long 3-pointer at the buzzer for a 72-70 victory that triggered the team’s current win streak.
Top players: Junior wing Matt Bradley leads the Pac-12 in scoring at 19.1 points despite shooting a career-low 28 percent from beyond the 3-point arc. He has missed the past two games after spraining his ankle vs. USF but he is expected back this week. Ryan Betley (10.9 points) and Foreman (9.7), both grad transfers, have combined for 40 of the Bears’ 64 3-point baskets.
Going forward: The Bears got a lift when the NCAA ruled Fresno State transfer point guard Jarred Hyder eligible two games ago. But there is no timetable on the return of senior starting forward Grant Anticevich (10.3 points, 5.9 rebounds), who was coming off a pair of strong performances when he underwent an emergency appendectomy two weeks ago. The Bears are improving, but the hill they must climb is steep.
Ethan Thompson
Photo by Casey Sapio, USA Today
11. OREGON STATE (4-3, 0-1)
So far: Yes, the Beavers beat Cal back on Nov. 25 in a hastily arranged, non-conference game at Corvallis. But OSU’s other three victories came against opponents with a total of two Division I victories.
Biggest surprise: Junior forward Warith Alatishe (10.4 points, 9.1 rebounds), a transfer from Nicholls State, has logged double-digit points in four games and double-digit rebounds in four.
Top players: Senior point guard Ethan Thompson flirted with entering the NBA draft last spring then returned to OSU, where he’s averaging a career-best 17.3 points and shooting 44 percent from 3-point distance. Sophomore Jarod Lucas provides the Beavers 11.1 points per game off the bench.
Going forward: The Beavers haven’t been tested the way they will be Thursday night against Stanford, not to mention on the road in conference play, where a year ago they were 2-7.
Games vs. Cal: Saturday at OSU; Feb. 25 at Cal
Quade Green
Photo by Joe Nicholson, USA Today
12. WASHINGTON (1-6, 0-2)
So far: The Huskies have already played three games against Pac-12 rivals, losing to Utah, Oregon and Colorado. They can be thankful that the 23-point road defeat to CU did not count as a conference game. Senior Nahziah Carter, who averaged 12.2 points a year ago, left the program after a suspension that accompanied being investigated for two sexual assault allegations.
Biggest surprise: Losing by 34 points to Baylor in the opener at Las Vegas was a hard swallow, but not nearly as shocking as the Huskies’ 57-42 loss to UC Riverside two days later. UW shot 30 percent from the field, including 3-for-20 on 3’s.
Top players: Senior guard Quade Green, who was ruled academically ineligible at midseason a year ago, has returned as UW’s top scorer (14.4) and assist leader (3.0). But the Kentucky transfer is the only player averaging more than 8.2 points on a team that ranks last in the Pac-12 in scoring (61.0) and 11th in defense (70.3).
Going forward: It’s hard to see how the Huskies are going to generate enough offense to compete with most teams in the Pac-12. They are last in the conference in field-goal accuracy (.398) and 3-point shooting (.254), and they are the worst rebounding team (minus-8.4) team in the league.
Games vs. Cal: Jan. 9 at Cal; Feb. 20 at UW
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Follow Jeff Faraudo of Cal Sports Report on Twitter: @jefffaraudo
