Early 2021-22 Top-25 Rankings Favor Pac-12: UCLA No. 1 on Two Sites
The post-NCAA tournament assessment of Pac-12 basketball is in, and folks across the country are finally admitting the conference was better than most were willing to concede in 2020-21 and is expected to be a major factor in 2021-22.
In fact, two of nine respected sites that posted way-too-early top-25 rankings for next season placed UCLA No. 1.
Before we dive fully into next season, let’s note the final credits of this season.
Five Pac-12 teams were ranked in the final USA Today coaches poll, a record for the conference in a post-NCAA tournament ranking, and two Pac-12 teams were ranked in the top 10 -- UCLA at No. 7 and USC at No. 9.
That’s quite a change from the final regular-season polls, when no Pac-12 teams were ranked in the top 20 in either the AP media poll or the USA Today coaches poll. Only Colorado (23rd) and USC (24th) made the final AP top 25, and USC (23rd) and Oregon (25th) were the only ones in the coaches poll.
So what happened? The Pac-12 went 13-5 in the NCAA tournament, the best record of any conference, and put three teams in the Elite Eight, while no other conference had more than one. The Pac-12 went 2-0 against the Big Ten and 2-0 against the Big 12.
Here’s a quick look at the NCAA tournament records by conference (with the number of teams in the tournament in parentheses):
Pac-12 (5) – 13-5
WCC (2) – 5-2
ACC (2) – 4-2
Summit (1) – 2-1
Big 12 (7) – 11-6
Missouri Valley (2) – 3-2
SEC (6) – 7-6
Big East (4) – 4-4
Big Ten (9) – 8-9
ACC (7) – 4-7
Conference USA (1) – 1-1
MAC (1) – 1-1
MEAC (1) – 1-1
Southland (1) – 1-1
SWAC (1) – 1-1
Mountain West (2) – 0-2
Now let’s get down to the nitty-gritty if how this might translate into perceptions about next season. We looked at the way-too-early top-25 rankings for next season of nine sites, and while there is considerable uncertainty about next season’s rosters (transfers, which seniors will return, which will turn pro, impact of incoming freshmen), the experts seem to think more of the Pac-12.
UCLA is No. 1 on two sites (Andy Katz at NCAA.com and CBS Sports), and the Bruins are No. 2 on two other sites (ESPN and The Sporting News).
Gonzaga is No. 1 on six sites (ESPN, 247Sports, Sports Illustrated, The Sporting News, Yahoo and Jeff Goodman).
Alabama is No. 1 on one site (Washington Post).
Here are the top five teams from each of the nine early top-25 rankings, with the Pac-12 teams in the top-25 added. Comments of Pac-12 teams are included.
.
1. UCLA:
The Bruins had no senior contributors on a Final Four team. Mick Cronin has built a culture of winning, defense and toughness.
2. Michigan
3. Baylor
4. Gonzaga
5. Kansas
Also:
17. Oregon:
The roster turnover happens every year, but Dana Altman always comes through with a Pac-12 title contender.
25. USC
Evan Mobley will likely be gone, but enough returns for the Trojans to be back in the chase in the Pac-12.
.
1. UCLA:
Every meaningful player who helped the Bruins make the Final Four is currently projected back on campus - among them NCAA Tournament star Johnny Juzang. UCLA will add five-star prospect Peyton Watson and should have all of the pieces necessary to win a national title.
2. Gonzaga
3. Alabama
4. Duke
5. Baylor
Also:
21. Arizona:
Most of the pieces that helped Arizona finish in the top 30 at KenPom are expected back. As long as James Akinjo withdraws from the NBA Draft, the Wildcats should return to the NCAA Tournament (provided they're eligible for the NCAA Tournament).
22. USC:
Andy Enfield should have the Trojans back in the NCAA Tournament - as long as Isaiah Mobley doesn't join his brother, Evan Mobley, in the NBA Draft. A top-15 recruiting class highlighted by Reese Dixon-Waters will help offset the departures.
24. Oregon:
Dana Altman is among the best at reloading his roster each offseason via the transfer market. So it's safe to assume he'll find enough good pieces to supplement a core of Will Richardson and Eric Williams, both of whom averaged double-figures this season.
.
1. Gonzaga
2. UCLA:
A bang-bang charge call or 40-footer shy of potentially playing for the national championship, I'm banking on UCLA's March momentum carrying over to next season. That expectation hinges heavily on what Johnny Juzang decides to do, however. March's breakout star raised his stock as much as any player in college basketball over the past three weeks and could head to the NBA. But if Juzang comes back, Mick Cronin should have back every notable player from the Final Four team. Jaime Jaquez established himself as a go-to scorer and Tyger Campbell is the perfect point guard for Cronin. The Bruins should also get a boost from the potential healthy return of Chris Smith and the addition of five-star wing Peyton Watson. The question will be whether UCLA is more like the team that won five games in 12 days to get to the Final Four or the team that lost four in a row to finish 17-9 before Selection Sunday.
Projected starting lineup:
Tyger Campbell (10.2 PPG)
Johnny Juzang (15.5 PPG)
Jaime Jaquez (12.1 PPG)
Chris Smith (12.6 PPG)
Cody Riley (9.8 PPG)
3. Purdue
4. Ohio State
5. Kansas
Also:
16. Arizona:
A mostly forgotten team this past season, Arizona was a likely NCAA tournament team for most of the campaign despite having nothing to play for due to a self-imposed ban. It's not clear the Wildcats will be able to play in next season's NCAA tournament either (or if Sean Miller will still be the coach), but until a punishment is handed down, I'm rolling with them as a potential second-weekend team. Miller's teams in the past have been known for defense, but this version was terrific offensively. James Akinjo is an excellent playmaker at the point of attack, and the Wildcats have an assortment of versatile frontcourt players to give teams problems. Benedict Mathurin, Kerr Kriisa, Dalen Terry, Azuolas Tubelis and Jordan Brown all made impacts during their first year in Tucson, and Miller also brings in a solid recruiting class led by top-100 prospect Shane Nowell. Expect Arizona to hit the portal, too.
Projected starting lineup:
James Akinjo (15.6 PPG)
Dalen Terry (4.6 PPG)
Bennedict Mathurin (10.8 PPG)
Azuolas Tubelis (12.2 PPG, 7.1 RPG)
Jordan Brown (9.4 PPG)
20. Oregon
Like Arkansas and a couple of other programs, Oregon is another situation where I just assume it will find players in the spring to fill out the roster. Dana Altman does it every year, and he gets the team humming during the second half of the season. And he'll probably do it again in 2021-22. Eugene Omoruyi, Chris Duarte, L.J. Figueroa and Amauri Hardy are all seniors, while Chandler Lawson is transferring. But Will Richardson leads the returnees, which also includes double-figure scorer Eric Williams. N'Faly Dante only played six games last season before tearing an ACL, while Franck Kepnang had impressive moments in the NCAA tournament. The Ducks also bring in top-10 prospect Nate Bittle, who will bring versatility to the frontcourt. Given all the production potentially leaving, Oregon could use an upgrade in its wing scoring. Whether that's via returnee Aaron Estrada or on the transfer market, it should be priority No. 1 in Eugene.
Projected starting lineup:
Will Richardson (11.3 PPG)
Aaron Estrada (3.1 PPG)
Eric Williams (10.0 PPG)
Nate Bittle (No. 9 in ESPN 100)
N'Faly Dante (8.2 PPG)
.
1. Gonzaga
2. Michigan
3. Duke
4. Purdue
5. UCLA
Projected Starting Lineup: Tyger Campbell, Johnny Juzang, Jaime Jaquez, Chris Smith, Cody Riley
247Sports Composite class ranking: No. 30
Keep an eye on: Johnny Juzang, Chris Smith
Can the Bruins run it back? The potential is there for all five starters to return, along with Smith, who was considered UCLA’s best player heading into the season before suffering a season-ending injury. Don’t be surprised if he comes back for another year, potentially pushing Jules Bernard to a “starter minutes off the bench” role. When added to David Singleton, some returning young talent and the bonus of two more wings in five-star Peyton Watson and another top 50 player in shooting guard Will McClendon, and the Bruins will be significantly deeper than the Bruin bunch that went to the Final Four. If Campbell, Juzang and Jaquez play with the level of confidence they did late in the season, this team is scary.
Also:
11. Arizona
247Sports Composite class ranking: No. 22
The Wildcats were seen as a year away this past season after landing the No. 7 recruiting class in the 247Sports Composite, albeit one without a true one-and-done talent. And after going 17-9 with a team whose two most-used lineups late didn’t include a single senior, the Wildcats look ready to roll. James Akinjo, Kerr Kriisa, Benedict Mathurin, Jordan Brown, Azuolas Tubelis and Dalen Terry are all entering their second seasons on the court for the Wildcats.
12. Oregon
247Sports Composite class ranking: No. 37
It’s a little tough to rank Oregon below two Pac-12 teams given that the Ducks have had so much success in the league, but this Oregon team will look a little bit different. The Ducks played quite a bit of small ball this past season, but could have three 6-foot-11 players among their top seven or eight this year, with the return of N’Flay Dante and the addition of freshman Nathan Bittle. Will Richardson and Eric Williams Jr. will be key components, and it’s Oregon, so transfers are a way of life.
.
1. Gonzaga
2. Michigan
3. Duke
4. Ohio State.
5. UCLA
Perhaps no player boosted his draft stock in the NCAA tournament more than Johnny Juzang, but the Bruins will be special if he elects to stay for another year. The core of Juzang, Tyger Campbell and Jaime Jaquez Jr. is an excellent one that will be able to build on the team’s Final Four run this offseason, and the addition of elite recruit Peyton Watson on the wing will give the Bruins the top-end talent they lacked this season. UCLA likely won’t shoot quite as well next season as it did during its miracle run through March, but Mick Cronin has certainly set the tone for future success in Westwood.
Also:
19. Oregon
This will be a different-looking Oregon team than the one we saw in 2020–21. The addition of five-star floor-spacing big Nathan Bittle and the return of 6’ 11” center N’Faly Dante gives this group far more size than it had this past season. Meanwhile, veteran guard Will Richardson should be one of the Pac-12’s best scorers. Expect Dana Altman and Co. to be very active in the transfer portal to add talent as they have in the past—the Ducks’ top four scorers this season were transfers.
.
1. Gonzaga
2. UCLA
2020-21 finish: 22-10, Final Four
Overview: Coach Mick Cronin made a point several times during the tournament that the Bruins were advancing without a senior on their roster. Does that mean everyone, or most everyone, will return for a shot at greater glory in 2022? Even if they do, there still will need to be an upgrade in frontcourt depth and perimeter shooting. One had to think this will be an even more attractive destination after what viewers saw relative to how the Bruins competed in the 2021 NCAA Tournament — and how they reacted to their elimination.
3. Purdue
4. West Virginia
5. Maryland
Also:
21. Oregon
2020-21 finish: 21-7, Sweet 16
.
1. Gonzaga
2. Michigan
3. Ohio State
4. Maryland
5. Purdue
Also
6. UCLA
Leaving: SF Chris Smith, PF Jalen Hill
Might leave: SG Johnny Juzang
Coming back: SG Jaime Jaquez, PG Tyger Campbell, SG Jules Bernard, PF Cody Riley, SG David Singleton, SF Jake Kyman, PF Mac Etienne, SG Jaylen Clark
Adding: SF (No. 14), SG (No. 38)
Juzang might get the itch to leave college early after his performance in the NCAA men’s tournament, but he would be better off returning and getting stronger, working on his handle a little more next season and building on what the team did this year. Mick Cronin and staff landed the highest recruit since taking the job at UCLA in 6-foot-9 wing Watson. He’ll most likely only be in Westwood for one year so this could be the year UCLA runs the Pac-12 from start to finish.
17. Oregon
Leaving: SG Addison Patterson (transfer), SF Chandler Lawson (transfer), PG Will Johnson (transfer), SF Chris Duarte, SF LJ Figueroa, PF Eugene Omoruyi
Coming back: PG Will Richardson, PF Eric Williams Jr., C N’Faly Dante, SG Aaron Estrada, SG Jalen Terry (Fr.), PF Franck Kepnang
Oregon went 11-1 when Richardson returned to the team this year after a thumb injury kept him sidelined for two months. He is the floor general this team needs and will pair nicely in the pick-and-roll with five-star Bittle coming in next year.
19. Arizona
Leaving: PG Jemarl Baker Jr. (transfer), SG Terrell Brown Jr. (transfer); PF Ira Lee (transfer)
Coming back: PG James Akinjo, PF Azuolas Tubelis, SG Bennedict Mathurin, PF Jordan Brown, SG Kerr Kriisa, C Christian Koloko, SF Dalen Terry
Adding: SG (No. 86), SG (No. 81), PG (No. 89)
Arizona has a veteran point guard returning in Akinjo, and look for sophomore Mathurin to have a breakout year next season. The 6-foot-7 shooting guard averaged 18.8 points and shot 41% from 3-point range in just 25 minutes per game as a freshman. He’ll likely be the No. 1 option in the offense next season.
.
1. Alabama
2. Gonzaga
3. Michigan
4. Villanova
5. Purdue
Also:
7. UCLA (22-10)
The Bruins had three parts to this past season — the 17-5 start, a four-game skid and the 5-1 NCAA tournament run. Mick Cronin’s squad was unremarkable on defense during Pac-12 play but excellent up until its loss to Gonzaga in the semifinals. That problem solved, UCLA should be able to climb to the top of the Pac-12 if its core group — Johnny Juzang, Jules Bernard, Tyger Campbell, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Cody Riley — remains intact.
22. Oregon (21-7)
This year especially, there are certain teams that are going to get a favorable way-too-early placement based on the coach’s track record alone. It feels like Oregon has as much regular roster churn as anyone and has played in the second weekend of the postseason in five of the last eight tournament, so Dana Altman is probably well-equipped to deal with the fluidity of this offseason.
25. Southern California (25-8)
Evan Mobley is presumably off to become a lottery pick, but perhaps a good chunk of the rest of the roster that led the Trojans to the Elite Eight for the first time in 20 years will be back? Andy Enfield has won with transfers before, so that’s an option if need be. Regardless, USC is not a one-hit wonder; it is coming off its fifth 20-win season in six years.
.
1. Gonzaga
2. Ohio State
3. UCLA
Seniors: F Chris Smith (12.6 ppg, 6.4 rpg)
50-50: G *Johnny Juzang (Soph., 16.0 ppg)
Unknown: PF Jalen Hill (RS Jr., 6.1 ppg)
Back: SG *Jaime Jaquez Jr. (Soph., 12.3 ppg), PG *Tyger Campbell (RS Soph., 10.4 ppg), G *Jules Bernard (Jr., 10.3 ppg), PF *Cody Riley (RS Jr., 10.0 ppg), G David Singleton (Jr.), SF Jake Kyman (Soph.), PF Mac Etienne (Fr.), G Jaylen Clark (Fr.), PF Kenneth Nwuba (RS Soph.)
Add: SF Peyton Watson (No. 10), SG Will McClendon (No. 45)
No one saw this coming in the NCAA Tournament, and as long as Juzang returns to Westwood, there’s no reason to believe the Bruins won’t pick up where they left off. But that’s a big question. Juzang was arguably the tournament’s brightest star, Jaquez and Bernard were both terrific, and Mick Cronin will add a stud freshman in Watson. The other x-factor is whether Smith returns.
4. Purdue
5. Maryland
Also:
17. Oregon
Transferring: G Addison Patterson (Soph., Nevada), F Chandler Lawson (Soph., 4.4 ppg), G Will Johnson (RS Jr., 0.7 ppg)
Seniors: F *Eugene Omoruyi (RS Sr., 17.1 ppg), G *Chris Duarte (17.1 ppg), F *LJ Figueroa (12.3 ppg), G Amauri Hardy (3.9 ppg)
Back: G *Will Richardson (Jr., 11.3 ppg), F *Eric Williams Jr. (RS Jr., 10.0 ppg), C N’Faly Dante (Soph., 8.2 ppg), G Aaron Estrada (Soph.), G Jalen Terry (Fr.), C Franck Kepnang (Fr.)
Add: C Nathan Bittle (No. 16), SF Johnathan Lawson (No. 91)
Honestly, this one is about Dana Altman and the program’s ability to reload via transfers more than anything else. There will be major turnover, but that’s almost always the case these days with the Ducks. They still have at least two starters back in Richardson and Williams, and a couple of talented bigs with Dante and Kepnang, plus two heralded frosh with Bittle and Lawson.
21. Arizona
Transferring: G Jemarl Baker Jr. (RS Jr., 12.0 ppg), G Terrell Brown Jr. (Grad, 7.3 ppg); F Ira Lee (Sr., 3.0 ppg)
Back: G *James Akinjo (Jr., 15.6 ppg), PF *Azuolas Tubelis (Fr., 12.2 ppg, 7.1 rpg), SF *Bennedict Mathurin (Fr., 10.8 ppg), PF Jordan Brown (RS Soph., 9.4 ppg), G *Kerr Kriisa (Fr., 5.5 ppg), C *Christian Koloko (Soph., 5.3 ppg), F Dalen Terry (Fr.)
Add: SG-SF Shane Nowell (No. 80), G K.J. Simpson (No. 99), SG Shane Dezonie
The Wildcats weren’t eligible for the NCAA tourney this past season, but likely would have gotten in if they hadn’t self-imposed a ban. If they bring back their core of Akinjo, Tubelis, and Mathurin while adding a trio of solid freshmen, there’s no reason to think they can’t compete for the Pac-12 title.
.
Cover photo of UCLA by Indy Star, USA TODAY Sports
.
Follow Jake Curtis of Cal Sports Report on Twitter: @jakecurtis53
Find Cal Sports Report on Facebook by searching: @si.calsportsreport or going to https://www.facebook.com/si.calsportsreport
