Cal Plays Low-Scoring, Close Games, but Can't Win Them
Cal has outscored its opponents 163-158 this season, yet the Bears have a losing record at 3-4. Since the start of the 2021 season, the Bears have outscored their foes 448-425; however, they have an 8-11 record in that span.
What gives?
Well, the Bears have had a strong defense and a mediocre offense throughout that period, so while Cal is keeping the opponent’s score down, its offense is keeping the Bears’ score down too. So you have a lot of close, low-scoring games.
That was OK in 2019, when the Bears went 3-2 in games decided by seven points or fewer and finished 8-5.
But last year Cal was 0-5 in such games, and finished 5-7 overall. This season the Bears are 1-3 in games in which the final margin was seven points or fewer, and in that one win – 20-14 over UNLV – the Rebels had a chance to score a go-ahead touchdown after getting to the Cal 8-yard line in the final three minutes.
That makes Cal 1-8 in one-score games since the start of the 2021 season, the worst in the Pac-12. Washington is the only conference team that has played more games decided by seven points or fewer since the start of last season, and the Huskies are 4-6 in those 10 games. Washington State is 4-4 in its eight one-score games in that span, and no other Pac-12 team has played more than six close games since the start of the 2021 season.
The only Cal loss this season that was decided by more than a touchdown was the 28-9 defeat at Washington State, and that was a 14-9 game three minutes into the fourth quarter.
So Cal can stay close, but it has been unable to win those games. If the Bears had been, say, 5-4 in those games instead of 1-8, we’d be singing a much different song about the state of Cal football.
“That’s been the big thing for us all season – finishing games,” Cal nose tackle Ricky Correia said this week.
Losing close games got Scott Frost fired at Nebraska. The Cornhuskers went 0-9 in games decided by seven points or fewer from the start of last season until Frost was fired three games into this season.
So what is the explanation? What does it take to win close games?
“I think it comes down to grit and belief and knowing that you can get it done,” Cal quarterback Jack Plummer said.
Is it just a matter of getting over that hump? Once a team wins a close game, it feels better about its chances of doing it again. And, as Plummer says, belief is a big part of it. It’s why teams with a lot of inexperienced players are often on the short end of close games.
“You build confidence through demonstrative performance,” Wilcox said in the video atop the story.
Cal started four true freshmen in the overtime loss to Colorado two weeks ago, and only five players who were starters for the Bears at the end of last season were starters in Saturday’s seven-point loss to Washington. That’s a lot of new faces. Plummer, a transfer from Purdue, is not new to college football, but he is new to the Cal offensive system.
There is no shortage of “want-to,” according to Wilcox. But he notes that a few plays here and there spell the difference in close games, and Cal has not made enough of them.
“It’s a process,” Cal offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave said this week. “I think you learn how to win. Young teams learn how to win. The more experience you get, the more lessons you can apply.”
Yes, experience is a major factor. But having an offense that can score points, especially at the end of games, also is a factor in a team’s ability to win those tight games.
Four key games this season provided examples:
---USC drove 84 yards to score the winning touchdown with 1:13 left in a 17-14 victory over Oregon State.
---Oregon scored on touchdown drives of 75 and 69 yards in the fourth quarter, the second TD coming with 1:21 left, to overcome a 12-point deficit and beat Washington State 44-41.
---UCLA drove 61 yards on a possession that began with 2:52 left and ended with a game-winning 24-yard field goal on the final play of the Bruins’ 32-31 victory over South Alabama.
---Utah drove 75 yards to score a touchdown along with a two-point conversion with 48 seconds left to beat USC 43-42.
All four of those victorious teams average better than 39 points a game and rank among the top 15 scoring teams in the country. That scoring threat is a nice weapon to have in your back pocket when it’s winning time. Cal ranks 11th in the Pac-12 and 101st in the nation in scoring at 23.3 points per game.
It is noteworthy that Cal often has been able to stay close in games against heavily favored opponents, and the Bears might draw favorable reviews if they stay close in Saturday's home game against eighth-ranked Oregon.
But as Wilcox has often said, this is a bottom-line profession.
.
Cover photo of Justin Wilcox is by Matt Cashore, USA TODAY Sports
.
Follow Cal Sports Report on Twitter: @jakecurtis53
Find Cal Sports Report on Facebook by going to https://www.facebook.com/si.calsportsreport
