Cal's Simulated 2020 Football Season: Game 2 vs. TCU
Cal’s simulated 2020 fall football season moves on to the second week, with a home game against TCU.
We are providing a summary of what might have happened on the day each game of Cal’s original schedule was slated to take place. Last week, Cal topped UNLV in its simulated season opener, and today we focus on the Bears’ home opener against TCU, which was scheduled for today, September 5.
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Date: Saturday, September 5, 2020
The Opponent: TCU
In reality, TCU was scheduled to open its 2020 season against SMU on September 11 based on its revised schedule, but that game was canceled because of positive COVID-19 tests among TCU athletes.
Cal was originally scheduled to play the Horned Frogs on September 5 in the Bears’ home opener and TCU’s season opener.
The Horned Frogs are known for their defense under respected head coach Gary Patterson, and have finished first or second in the Big 12 in fewest yards allowed per play for six straight seasons. TCU led the Big 12 in total defense in 2019. TCU beat Cal 10-7 in overtime in a defensive struggle in the 2018 Cheez-It Bowl.
Last season, TCU went 5-7 overall and 3-6 in the Big 12. The Horned Frogs failed to play in a bowl game for the first time since 2013 and just the second time since 2004. They have just seven starters returning from that team.
Their stars are both on defense, safety Trevon Moehrig, a second-team All-American, according to Athlon, and linebacker Garret Wallow, who led the Big 12 in tackles last season and had 18 tackles for loss. But the key to TCU’s success is quarterback Max Duggan, who was starter by the end of the 2019 season as a freshman. He poses a strong running threat, but his 10 interceptions show he made mistakes in his first college season.
TCU preseason ranking (among 130 FBS teams)
No. 32 by ESPN power rankings (No. 15 among the 77 teams planning to play in the fall)
No. 43 by Athlon
No. 34 by College Football News
Picked to finish sixth in the 10-team Big 12 by Athlon
Cal was ranked a few spots higher than TCU in the ESPN.com and Athlon rankings and a few spots lower in the College Football News rankings.
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The venue:
Cal’s Memorial Stadium in Berkeley, Calif., which has artificial turf
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What does Cal need to do to beat TCU?
Cal must figure out a way to get some big plays against a TCU defense known for limiting big plays. Cal quarterback Chase Garbers needs to avoid mistakes, which means he should scramble or throw the ball away rather than risk an interception against TCU’s ball-hawking defense. Cal’s offensive line needs to handle TCU’s pass rush, which is typically one of the best in the country despite a lackluster pass rush in 2019. Christopher Brown Jr., who will start despite suffering a leg injury late in the simulated UNLV game, needs to convert several third-and-short situations.
Cal’s defense must prevent TCU quarterback Max Duggan from gaining big yardage with his legs, forcing him to stay in the pocket if possible. The Bears need to force Duggan into mistakes, which he is capable of making. At least two takeaways by the Cal defense is needed.
The Horned Frogs have questions on the offensive line, with just one returning starter.
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What are the concerns for this home opener?
Cal has an advantage in that it has played a game already and TCU has not, and the home field should help the Bears.
But TCU quarterback Max Duggan figures to improve with a season under his belt, and any quarterback who can become a starter in the Big 12 as a freshman has the potential to be dangerous.
TCU safeties Trevon Moehrig and Ar’Darius Washington combined for nine interceptions last season and provide a topflight duo on the backline that could cause problems for Garbers.
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Which Cal players need to show up in a big way?
Garbers must make good decisions and avoid turnovers.
Brown needs to provide at least a threat of a running game, which means the offensive line must be sound.
Outside linebacker Cameron Goode needs to provide pressure on TCU quarterback Max Duggan while also keeping him in the pocket.
A Cal defensive back, possibly redshirt freshman Craig Woodson, needs to come up with a game-changing play, such as a pick-six.
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How does the simulated game play out?
The Bears get a jump on TCU, which is on the road and playing its first game of the season. Garbers completes two passes -- including a 24-yarder to Nikko Remigio -- as Cal marches 75 yards on its first possession to take a 7-0 lead. But the TCU defense settles down and shuts out Cal for the rest of the half.
TCU quarterback Max Duggan gives Cal trouble scrambling from the pocket, but the Bears’ defense stiffens in the red zone, limiting TCU to a field goal in the first half, which ends with Cal holing a 7-3 lead.
TCU turns a Moehrig interception into a 26-yard Horned Frogs touchdown drive midway through the third period. But an interception by Woodson of a Duggan pass puts Cal in position to score a TD on a 39-yard drive early in the fourth quarter.
Each team adds a field goal before Cal ends TCU’s final possession by stopping Duggan short of the first down on a fourth-and-4 run from the Cal 45-yard line.
Cal escapes with a 17-13 victory.
Garbers completes 14 of 22 passes with no touchdowns and an interception. Brown is limited to 59 yards on 15 carries, but TCU gains just 92 yards on the ground, including 48 by Duggan, who throws an interception and is sacked three times, twice by Goode.
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What effect does this game have on the Bears’ (mythical) season?
Cal’s new offense under offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave is still a work in progress. Committing just one turnover against a Gary Patterson defense is a good sign, but the explosive plays have been noticeably absent.
The Bears’ defense gained confidence by limiting a Big 12 team to 13 points, showing Cal can win a defense-dominated, low-scoring game, as it did often in 2018. However, Cal will face better offenses in the games to come.
Cal is feeling pretty good about itself after beating a solid team like TCU, although playing at home and having played a game previously gave the Bears a clear advantage.
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Cal Record: 2-0
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Next game:
Saturday, September 12, vs. Cal Poly at Cal
