Cal Football: Is Skepticism Surrounding Bears Mostly the Result of 1-3 in 2020?
Jerry Palm of CBS Sports has released his early bowl projections, and the Pac-12 Conference lands just five spots among the 82 teams filling the 41 matchups.
Wow. Just five.
And Cal is not among those five.
First, let’s look at which Pac-12 teams Palm does expect to play in bowl games:
— Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Wisconsin
— Las Vegas Bowl: Arizona State vs. Indiana
— Alamo Bowl: USC vs. Texas
— Holiday Bowl: Washington vs. Boston College
— Sun Bowl: Utah vs. Virginia Tech
Palm notes that the Redbox Bowl, which is contracted to pair a Pac-12 team vs. a Big Ten opponent, appears to have folded, depriving those two conferences of a spot.
But the Pac-12 has two other bowl ties Palm doesn’t envision the leaguelfilling. In the Independence Bowl, which matches a Pac-12 team vs. Army, Palm has BYU facing UAB. And in the new Los Angeles Bowl, which is supposed to feature teams from the Pac-12 and Mountain West, Palm projects Boise State taking on Louisville.
Palm writes that he included 11 teams with 5-7 records in his bowl projections while pointing out that the Pac-12 requires a 6-6 record to play in the postseason.
In other words, he’s predicting Cal, UCLA, Stanford and Colorado will be 5-7 or worse.
For sure, there are reasons to be unsure about Cal’s prospects. The Bears need a big year from quarterback Chase Garbers and Bill Musgrave’s offense. The O-line (Michael Saffell) and D-line (Brett Johnson) need to demonstrate they are able to over key offseason personnel losses.
I believe much of skepticism surrounding Cal stems from the fact that the Bears won just one game last season. That allows people to easily dismiss them, zoom forward to the next team.
But not all one-victory seasons are created equal.
In fact, I’d suggest Cal has never experienced one anything like 2020. The restrictions and disruptions wreaked havoc on the team, to the point that the season's results almost should be disregarded.
The Bears were 1-3, after all, which is not to be confused with 1-11.
The COVID-19 pandemic ravaged their schedule, wiping out their non-conference games and reducing their calendar to four dates. In two of the defeats, self-inflicted wounds by the special teams likely reversed what easily could have been victories..
Cal has a strong contingent of players returning, including a group of super seniors that provides experience across the board.
So it’s worth asking this: How much a team’s record one year dictates how it will perform the next season. Does Cal’s 1-3 record last fall necessarily spell doom in 2021?
Of course not.
In fact, here are seven examples of Cal teams that rebounded from losing seasons to play in bowl games a year later:
— 2018: Cheez-It Bowl — Cal lost 10-7 to TCU in a largely unwatchable game to cap a 7-6 season the year after going 5-7
— 2015: Armed Forces Bowl — The Bears routed Air Force 55-36 in Jared Goff’s final game to finish 8-5 the year after they were 5-7.
— 2011: Holiday Bowl — Cal lost 21-10 to Texas and wound up 7-6, again the year after going 5-7.
— 1996: Aloha Bowl — In a strange season under one-year coach Steve Mariucci, the Bears opened 5-0, including a win at USC, then lost five of their next six to close the regular season. Cal lost 42-38 to Navy at the Aloho Bowl to finish 6-6, which came on the heels of 3-8 in 1995.
1993: Alamo Bowl — Keith Gilbertson had one good season as coach of the Bears, and this was it. Cal went 9-4 and crushed Iowa 37-3 in San Antonio a year after a 4-7 disappointment.
1990: Copper Bowl — This was the buildup season to Bruce Snyder’s 10-2 campaign in 1991. The Bears beat Wyoming 17-15 to close out a 7-4-1 season the year after they staggered to a 4-7 mark.
1958: Rose Bowl — The Bears never have enjoyed a turnaround quite like this one, a year after they were 1-9. It ended with Joe Kapp and mates playing Iowa on New Year’s Day in Pasadena. Yes, Cal lost 38-12, but its 7-4 record included wins by two points over USC, three points over UCLA and one point over Stanford.
Cover photo of Kuony Deng by Kelley L. Cox, USA Today
Follow Jeff Faraudo of Cal Sports Report on Twitter: @jefffaraudo
