ESPN Predicts Cal Football Will Pull Off a Major Upset in 2022
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ESPN.com and CBSSports.com both released their predictions for the 2022 Pac-12 football season on Friday, and although Cal does not get much love in those projections, the Golden Bears did get one startling mention from ESPN.com.
At the bottom of ESPN.com’s list of Pac-12 projected superlatives, which includes Pac-12 offensive player of the year, defensive player of the year, freshman of the year, impact transfer, coach of the year, coach on the hot seat, coordinator who will be a head coach and nonconference game of the year, is a category that no doubt caught the eye of Cal fans.
The category is “Upset of the Year,” and it is followed by this: Cal over Oregon, Oct. 29.
Despite being viewed as a team that will finish in the bottom half of the Pac-12 standings by every prognosticator from ESPN and CBS Sports -- and one that predicts the Golden Bears will finish 11th – Cal is chosen as the team that will pull off the biggest upset of the year in the Pac-12.
The pessimistic overall view of the Golden Bears paired with the fact that Oregon is ranked 11th in the preseason AP poll and 12th in the preseason coaches poll would indeed make a Cal victory over the Ducks a major upset.
So what is behind that upset prediction.
First of all, the game is in Berkeley, where Cal has a 16-11 record under Justin Wilcox, including three upsets of teams ranked in the top 20. Oregon is 5-7 away from Autzen Stadium over the past two seasons.
Secondly, Cal has played well against the Ducks recently. Cal has defeated Oregon two of the past three times they have met in Berkeley, including the 2020 upset of the No. 20 Ducks. Cal lost the last two times the teams met in Eugene, but the Bears had a chance to win both. Last season Cal lost to ninth-ranked Oregon 24-17 when the Bears failed to score a game-tying touchdown after getting a first down at the Oregon 3-yard line in the final minute. In 2019, Cal lost to 13th-ranked Oregon 17-7 despite holding a 7-0 halftime lead and playing without starting quarterback Chase Garbers.
Third, Cal’s teams under Wilcox tend to play better at the end of the season, and Oregon will be the Bears’ eighth opponent of the 2022 season. Meanwhile, Oregon has struggled down the stretch the past two seasons, losing three of their final four games in both 2020 and 2021.
Fourth, Oregon has a first-year head coach in Dan Lanning, so no one really knows how effective he will be in his first season as a head coach at any level.
That’s the optimistic news regarding ESPN’s and CBS Sports’ thoughts on Cal. The pessimism comes from the predictions on where Cal will finish in the Pac-12, which will not have divisions this season.
ESPN.com predicts Cal will finish tied for ninth place with Stanford with a 5-7 overall record and a 3-6 conference mark. Only two teams – Arizona and Colorado – are picked to finish behind the Golden Bears, who would finish with a losing conference record for the 13th consecutive season if this prediction turns out to be accurate.
CBS Sports had six college football experts project the Pac-12 finish, and Cal was projected to finish as high as seventh and as low as 11th. That 11th-place finish was predicted by Dennis Dodd, who placed the Bears behind Colorado and ahead of only Arizona. Two other CBS Sports reporters predicted Cal will finish ninth and another placed the Bears 10th.
Obviously, not many people are expecting Cal to challenge for a Pac-12 title this year, and that probably has to do with the number of key players it lost from last season. Only three players who were starters on Cal’s defense last season are back this year, and the Bears’ starting quarterback, leading rusher, and three top receivers from last year are gone too.
So maybe the Bears can sneak up on Oregon on Oct. 29.
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Cover photo by Jaime Valdez, USA TODAY Sports
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