Cal Football: Which Pac-12 Coaches Will Face Hot Seats Entering the 2020 Season?

Three newcomers are immune, but three others have work to do

The 2020 Pac-12 football season, if and when it gets under way, will be notable for having three first-year head coaches and three more hoping it won’t be their last.

Newcomers Washington’s Jimmy Lake, Washington State’s Nick Rolovich and Colorado’s Karl Dorrell will give those programs fresh starts.

Of course, that’s what all new coaches are expected to provide, and it doesn’t always work out that way. UCLA’s Chip Kelly and Arizona’s Kevin Sumlin, each beginning just his third year on the job, already are facing serious scrutiny.

And, as always, so is Clay Helton. He is just a year removed from rare USC losing season, and by no means off the hot seat following an 8-5 campaign that ended with a 25-point loss to Iowa in the Holiday Bowl.

But all three could enjoy an unexpected — and unwelcome — benefit in their quests to keep their jobs. Depending on how the COVID-19 pandemic impacts the season, athletic departments may stressed enough financially that they will think twice about a change that means buying out one contract while also funding a new one.

Here’s an early look at what level of heat is likely to be cranked up on Pac-12 coaches next season:

THE NEW GUYS

Karl Dorrell, Colorado (1st season at Colorado). Dorrell is back as a head coach a decade after a five-year stint at UCLA, where he was 10-2 one season but a .500 coach otherwise. Since then he has been an offensive assistant with the Miami Dolphins (twice), New York Jets, Houston Texans and Vanderbilt. He got the job at Boulder after CU alum Eric Bieniemy and Steve Sarkisian reportedly turned it down. Buffs haven't been terrible (three straight 5-7 seasons), but not very good. Coaching seat temperature: Just don't lose opener at Colorado State.

Nick Rolovich, Washington State (1st season at WSU). Mike Leach won 37 games from 2015 through ’18 — the most in any four-year stretch in WSU’s century-old football history — before slipping to 6-7 last fall. He bolted to Mississippi State, where he is learning hard lessons in racial sensitivity. Enter Rolovich, who looks great in a hat and won 28 games in four seasons at Hawaii, 10 of them last fall. Can he restart the Cougars’ momentum? Coaching seat temperature: Too soon to check the thermostat.

Jimmy Lake, Washington (1st season). Chris Petersen surprised much of the college football world when he suddenly retired after six seasons at UW, during which he won 40 games the final four years. Lake, who ran the Huskies’ defense the past several years, is a first-time head coach. Born in Walnut Creek, he attended high school in Spokane and college at Eastern Washington. Now he’s in charge of the state’s marquee program and there will be pressure to deliver. Coaching seat temperature: Check back after Michigan opener.

Justin Wilcox, left, and Mario Cristobal both have their programs in good places.

Photo by Troy Wayrynen, USA Today

ON TERRA FIRMA

Justin Wilcox, Cal (20-18/4th season): Wilcox has led the Bears to back-to-back winning seasons and bowl appearances for the first time since 2008 and ’09. His Bears beat USC in 2018 and ended Cal’s nine-year Big Game drought last season on the way to an 8-5 record, matching their highest win total since 2008. The once-unwatchable defense has been rebuilt. The offense is coming. Coaching seat temperature: Comfortably cool.

David Shaw, Stanford (86-34/10th season): Over his first eight seasons as head coach, Shaw far outdistanced what predecessor Jim Harbaugh achieved before taking the 49ers job. He averaged 10.25 victories over that span. never won fewer than eight games, led the Cardinal to a bowl appearance every year and won two Rose Bowls. Stanford began last season ranked No. 23, but lost three of its first four gams and each of its final four to finish 4-8. Merely a blip? We’ll see. Still, Shaw has earned virtual lifetime currency at his alma mater. Coaching seat temperature: Still icy.

Mario Cristobal, Oregon (21-7/3rd full season). Cristobal was 20 games under .500 in six seasons as head coach at Florida International, but he hit the ground running as the Ducks’ head coach after stints as an offensive assistant coach at Alabama and Oregon. The Ducks were 12-2 last season, won the conference title, beat Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl and enter this season — whenever it begins — as the overwhelming Pac-12 favorite. Coaching seat temperature: Cristobal can run for mayor.

Jonathan Smith, Oregon State (7-17/3rd season). Smith, who starred at quarterback for the Beavers two decades ago, inherited a program that was 1-11 the year before he returned. He won two games his debut season, but improved to five victories last fall. Few are convinced the Beavers will do appreciably better than that this season but for now OSU seems headed in the right direction. Coaching seat temperature: Comfy so far.

Kyle Whittingham, Utah (133-64/16th full season). The Utes have played in bowl games six straight years, but they were hoping for a date in Pasadena last season before being crunched by Oregon in the Pac-12 title game. An 11-1 start and No. 5 national ranking went a bit south after two big losses to end an otherwise impressive season. Coaching seat temperature: Whittingham will someday get a statue in front of Rice-Eccles Stadium.

Herm Edwards, Arizona State (15-11/3rd season). Lots of skeptics when ASU hired the long ago Cal defensive back 10 years after his most recent coaching job. And that was in the NFL — Edwards hadn’t coached in college since completing a three-year stint as a position coach at San Jose State way back in 1989. But Edwards has made a nice transition from his role as an ESPN analyst and the Sun Devils appeared to be ascending. Coaching seat temperature: Far cooler than a fall evening in Tempe.

A WARMING TREND

Chip Kelly, UCLA (7-17/3rd season at UCLA): So far, Kelly is being paid based on the reputation he established at Oregon (46-7 in four seasons). He has done little with the Bruins, and 2019 ended with three straight losses in which the opposition scored 129 points. He had a young team, so perhaps players begin to blossom this season. Kelly still has three years left on his original five-year, $23.3 million contract, meaning UCLA owes him about $14 million. That could buy Kelly some time. Coaching seat temperature: Simmering . . . but will it boil over?

Kevin Sumlin, Arizona (9-15/3rd season at Arizona): Rich Rodriguez won 31 games and went to four bowl games in his first four seasons, then was out after going 10-15 the next two years (although he also was the subject of a sexual harassment investigation). Sumlin, who came from Texas A&M, has one fewer victory than that in is first two years. And he had quarterback Khalil Tate, who totaled 3,000 yards rushing and passing and 26 touchdowns the year before Sumlin arrived. His five-year contract will pay him $3.5 million each of the next three seasons. Coaching seat temperature: Getting warmer.

Clay Helton, USC (40-22/6th full season): Helton guided the Trojans to a Rose Bowl victory in his second full season and 11 victories a year after that. But USC was 5-7 in 2018 — the program's first losing season since 2000 — and last year’s bounce-back 8-5 record didn’t remove that bad taste from the mouths of most USC fans. USC should have one of the nation’s most potent passing games next fall, but questions remain. Some of those could be answered in Week 1 when USC plays Alabama. New AD Mike Bohn will be watching. Coaching seat temperature: Warm, and the heat could get turned up early.

*** Wilcox, in the video below, talks about changes the Bears will make in their offense under new offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave: