Pac-12 Football Notebook: Can USC Get Into College Football Playoff?
The Pac-12 heads into its final weekend, with USC facing Oregon in the Pac-12 title game Friday night and three other games Saturday.
We forge ahead.
Top five questions of the week
---Is there any way USC can get into the four-team College Football Playoff?
The case probably closed for the Trojans on Tuesday evening when they were not among the top 10 in the College Football Playoff rankings, coming in at No. 13, presumably too far behind to have a chance. The CFP committee's perception of the Pac-12 was revealed when it placed USC, an undefeated traditional college football power, behind teams from the American and Sun Belt conferences as well as four two-loss teams.
To be fair USC (5-0) did not wow anyone by escaping three times with victories achieved in the closing minutes. If USC were to face any of the top five teams in this week's CFP rankings, you would bet heavily on the opponent.
Let's manufacture USC's possible route to a national championship playoff berth:
1. USC looks impressive in clobbering Oregon in Friday's Pac-12 championship game -- a score of, say, 33-7, might be in order.
2. Second-ranked Notre Dame beats No. 3 Clemson in the ACC title game, and a decisive victory may be needed.
3. Ohio State loses to Northwestern in the Big Ten championship game, but the Wildcats can't be too impressive.
4. Texas A&M loses to Tennessee
5. Iowa State loses to Oklahoma in a close Big 12 championship game.
6. Alabama crushes Florida in the SEC championship contest.
7. A Cincinnati loss to Tulsa in the American Conference finale and a Coastal Carolina loss to Louisiana in the Sun Belt title game.
8. Virus issues cause a number of teams ranked ahead of the Trojans to be unavailable for postseason play.
9. The USC band plays "Conquest" countless times Sunday morning to send the CFP committee members into a mesmerizing stupor that causes them to raise USC nine spots in the rankings.
10. Divine intervention.
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---Which bowls will Pac-12 teams participate in?
With the cancellation of five bowls with Pac-12 tie-ins (Sun, Las Vegas, L.A., Redbox, Holiday), the conference is left with just four guaranteed postseason berths. Stanford has already announced it will not accept a bowl bid, leaving USC, Oregon, Washington and Colorado as the prime bowl candidates, although the latter two could conceivably decide to join Stanford on the postseason sidelines..
This is how it might shake out:
Fiesta Bowl (New Year's Six Bowl): USC vs. Indiana
Independence Bowl: Oregon vs. Army
Alamo Bowl: Washington Vs. Big 12 runnerup
Armed Forces Bowl: Colorado vs. SEC team
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---Who will be Arizona next head coach?
The names being mentioned most often are Brent Brennan, head coach of unbeaten 24th-ranked San Jose State and a former Arizona assistant, and Oregon co-defensive coordinator Joe Salava'e, a star at Arizona as a player who also spent one year as a Wildcats assistant coach.
Other possibilities include Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo (would the Wildcats' go to a triple-option offense?), Boise State coach Bryan Harsin and Buffalo coach Lance Leipold.
This is not an easy job. Excluding the recent additions of Utah and Colorado, Arizona is the only Pac-12 school that has never played in the Rose Bowl. All nine of the other schools have finished first or tied for first at least once since Arizona's only first-place finish in 1993, when the Wildcats finished in a three-way tie for first with with UCLA and USC at 6-2. That's Arizona's only first-place finish since the Wildcats joined the conference in 1978.
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---Would Mario Cristobal leave Oregon if he is offered the Auburn job?
The issue here is money. At $2.7 million per year, Cristobal is the second-lowest-paid coach in the Pac-12 (only Oregon State's Jonathan Smith makes less). Meanwhile, Auburn's Gus Malzahn was one of the nation's highest paid coaches, making more than $6.9 million this year.
Cristobal is certain to get a hefty raise at Oregon, which is negotiating with its coach on a new deal.
Furthermore, Cristobal has an $8 million buyout in his contract, which would be a hard financial pill for Auburn to swallow after it had to pay Malszahn a reported $21.7 million to kick him out the door.
Cristobal was an assistant coach in the SEC at Alabama from 2013 through 2016, but he has one one of the top recruiting classes in the country coming in next season at Oregon.
His path to a berth in the College Football Playoff might be easier at Oregon than at Auburn.
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---Does Colorado have reason to complain?
You bet. The Buffaloes (4-1 overall, 3-1 in the conference) have the second-best record among available Pac-12 teams and are the only Pac-12 team other than USC in this week's CFP top-25. The conference could have paired them with USC in the conference title game, since the two have not met, rather than having the second-place team in the North (Oregon) take Washington's place in Friday's title game.
The scheduled Saturday game against the Ducks was taken away from Colorado, which was left with no one to play this weekend, despite the conference's preseason statement that all teams would play another game on Dec. 19.
Furthermore, the two Colorado games that were canceled this season (USC and Arizona State) were called off becasue of virus issues with its opponent.
The Pac-12 was in a no-win situation with its choices, but Colorado, which was a great story after being picked to finish last in the Pac-12 North, was left holding the bag.
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This Week’s Conundrum
What if Friday's Pac-12 title game can't be played because Oregon or USC is sidelined with COVID-19-related issues. The Pac-12 wants Colorado to be on call just in case, but if something happens just hours before kickoff -- which is what happened to Cal against Washington State last Saturday -- this could get dicey, and FOX will not be pleased.
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Top Five Pac-12 Teams (at the Moment):
1. USC (5-0) – For the first time this year, the choice of a No. 1 team is not debatable. The Trojans are the Pac-12's only unbeaten team.
2. Colorado (4-1) – The Buffaloes' loss to Utah was damaging, but the Utes are getting better every week.
3. Stanford (3-2) -- The Cardinal has won three in a row and is 3-1 with Davis Mills at quarterback.
4. Washington (3-1) – The Huskies' three wins came against teams with a combined record of 4-11, and none has a winning record.
5. Oregon (3-2) – The Ducks are riding a two-game losing streak and are ahead of UCLA (3-3) only because they barely beat the Bruins when UCLA was without Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
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Player of the Year Standings:
1. Kedon Slovis, USC quarterback – He’s the quarterback of a 5-0 team, and he has saved the Trojans in the closing minutes of three games. In the fourth quarter this season, he has completed 75.5 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and no interceptions. That's the definition of an MVP.
2. Jarek Broussard, Colorado running back – He is second in the nation in rushing yards per game (162.6) for a 4-1 team. And he has a 300-yard game on his resume.
3. Jermar Jefferson, Oregon State running back – He is fourth in the nation in rushing yards per game (151) and averages 6.9 yards per carry, but his team is just 2-4.
4. Ty Jordan, Utah running back – Forgotten after he ran for just 32 yards in the opener against USC, Jordan has rushed for 314 yards the last two games combined and now averages 110.8 yards per game and 7.3 yards per carry.
5. Nate Landman, Colorado linebacker – Landman is third in the conference in tackles per game (10.6) and second in tackles for loss (9.0), but he made this list based on the Utah game this past Saturday. The Utes' run game was stifled with Landman in the game in the first half, but they ran roughshod over the Buffaloes in the second half when Landman was sidelined with an injury.
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Player of the week
Kedon Slovis, USC – The sophomore pulled off another Houdini escape act on Saturday against UCLA, leading the Trojans on a 43-yard, game-winning touchdown drive that started with 43 seconds left and ended on an 8-yard touchdown pass to Amon Ra St. Brown with 16 seconds remaining. He threw two interceptions in the game but also had five touchdown passes.
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Numbers that matter
0 – Number of games remaining on Colorado's schedule
9 -- Number of Pac-12 teams available to play games this weekend -- so far.
5 -- Longest active winning streak in the Pac-12, and it belongs to USC (Trojans lost their bowl game last season).
3 -- Second-longest active winning streak in the Pac-12, and it belongs to Stanford.
3 -- Number of games this season in which USC trailed with 1:30 left in the fourth quarter.
7 -- Number of turnovers committed by Arizona in its 70-7 loss to Arizona State
5 -- Number of turnovers committed by Washington and Stanford combined this season in nine games.
70 -- Points scored by Arizona State against Arizona, which has not yielded that many points in a game since its 78-7 loss to USC in 1928.
63 -- Margin of defeat for Arizona, which has not lost by that many points since a 69-6 loss to USC in 1923.
7.29 million -- Amount, in dollars, of the buyout reportedly paid to Arizona coach Kevin Sumlin after he was fired.
5 million -- Amount, in dollars, of the buyout that Kevin Sumlin reportedly would have been paid if Arizona had waited until after Jan. 15 to fire him.
9.9 million -- Amount, in dollars, Kevin Sumlin was paid by Texas A&M in 2018 after he was fired in November 2017 and replaced by Jimbo Fisher.
Quote
“I told the team that we are not talking about last year. This team is different. The mentality is different. They have shown that. They are growing. In critical situations they have made the right decisions. Last year we did not. We played a bunch of games like this last year and lost a bunch of close games. That comes down to making good decisions in critical moments. They have been doing that for the last couple of weeks.”
---Arizona coach Kevin Sumlin, on Oct. 5, 2019, after the Wildcats beat Colorado to extend their winning streak to four games and improve to 4-1. Arizona lost the seven remaining games last season and all five games this year, including a 70-7 loss to Arizona State in their final game, resulting in Sumlin's firing.
Cover photo of Kedon Slovis by Kyle Terada, USA TODAY Sports
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