Oregon, USC Have Easiest Paths to 2021 Pac-12 Football Title Game
Now that the 2021 Pac-12 football schedule has been released, let's assess those schedules.
The short conclusion is that Oregon, Washington, Colorado and Cal will determine the perception of Pac-12 football based on tough early-season nonconference games, as we shall explain later, but Oregon and USC have the easiest Pac-12 schedules, which we will address first.
To begin, we need to note that Oregon, Washington, USC and Arizona State are expected to be the best Pac-12 teams in 2021, since those four Pac-12 teams are included in the early 2021 top-25 rankings of seven reputable sites: NCAA.com, Brett McMurphy, Athlon, Bleacher Report, 247 Sports, Yahoo and ESPN.
We acknowledge that these projections are often off base, with surprise teams emerging and highly touted teams sinking. But this is our starting point to assess schedules.
***Click here for a story on Cal's 2021 schedule
Since each Pac-12 team always plays the other five teams in its division, the focal point of the nine-game conference schedule is the two teams from the other division that each team does not face.
Oregon does not play either of the top teams in the Pac-12 South -- USC and Arizona State -- while USC does not play either of the top two teams in the North -- Oregon and Washington. That's probably all you need to know, and will no doubt spawn some conspiracy theories.
Not only will Oregon and USC probably be the favorites in their respective divisions, they will have the easiest paths to the Pac-12 championship game, which will be played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Friday, Dec. 3.
Washington's schedule looks favorable too. The Huskies don't face USC, and their two presumed toughest games -- against Oregon and Arizona State -- will both be played in Seattle. The fact that those games will be played in consecutive weeks might make the Huskies' chore a little more difficult, but let's not get too far into the weeds.
2021 Pac-12 schedule
Arizona State avoids Oregon, which will boost the Sun Devils' chances, but ASU as well as USC.
Cal does not have to play Arizona State this season, and that's fortunate since the Sun Devils should be a contender in the South and has not lost to Cal since 2015. However, the Bears face both Oregon and Washington on the road, and they do play USC. In fact they will never avoid the Trojans, with last season's weird circumstances being the exception. When the conference was expanded to 12 teams and separated into two divisions, it was stipulated that Cal and Stanford would play USC and UCLA every year, to continue those instate rivalries and ensure that Cal and Stanford would have one home game each season against the team that typically attracts the most fans. Cal hosts the Trojans on Nov. 13 next fall.
Stanford probably has the toughest schedule among Pac-12 teams, since it plays USC, Oregon, Washington and Arizona State as well as Utah, which is probably the third-best team in the South. The Cardinal also faces a Notre Dame team that is likely to be ranked in the top 10.
That brings us to USC, which does not face either of the North favorites but does face Arizona State is on the road, although the latter is of minor significance compared with the two North foes it avoids.
USC will have some influence on how the country views the Pac-12, whose football reputation has been sliding into oblivion in recent years. The Trojans' Oct. 23 road game against Notre Dame might change some minds about West Coast football. But by then, most opinions will already be formed.
Of greater importance will be the results of four games on Sept. 11, when Oregon plays Ohio State, Washington faces Michigan, Colorado meets Texas A&M and Cal goes up against TCU in a quartet of nonconference games.
The big one is Oregon-Ohio State. The Buckeyes played in the national championship game last year and are sure to be a top-10 team in 2021. If the Ducks could somehow win that game on the road, presto, the Pac-12 image improves 10 fold. If the Ducks stay close, the perception of the Pac-12 might improve. Of course, if Oregon gets blown out, the Pac-12 will be dismissed as a feeble conference for the rest of the season.
That is unless Washington gets past Michigan in Ann Arbor the same day. The Wolverines are not expected to be as strong as they usually are, and they may not even be ranked in the preseason top 25. But the Michigan name still carries weight, and if the Huskies beat Michigan at the Big House, it can only help the Pac-12's reputation.
Texas A&M will probably be a top-10 team to start the 2021 season, and if Colorado can recapture the magic it had last season and beat the Aggies -- or even play them close -- in that game to be played in Denver, folks in the East might take the Pac-12 a little more seriously.
Cal also will play a role in developing the conference's football image, because the Bears play a road game that day against TCU, which could sneak into the top-25 by the time that game is played.
The perception created that day will determine whether teams like Oregon and USC can take advantage of their favorable Pac-12 schedules and get to the College Football Playoff.
Hey, we're only six months away from the first game, assuming college football normalcy will be restored by then.
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Photo from last season USC-Oregon Pac-12 championship game by Kirby Lee, USA TODAY Sports
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