The Difference Between Best College Football Player And Best NFL Prospect
Editor's note: This story reflects the opinion of Sports Illustrated-AllGators' contributing writer Graham Marsh.
Throughout this college football season, and seemingly all the seasons before it, a common conversation occurs every Saturday.
Who of these players will make the best pro players? Who do I want to see my playing for my NFL team?
That question has created an entire industry of scouts, draft analysts and general managers to attempt to answer that question. And when you watch the NFL Draft, and where players go, the guys that performed best on Saturdays and the guys that get picked the highest are not always synonymous.
Why is that?
Simply put, being a good NFL prospect is much more about ceiling than production. The pro game doesn't care about how good you are right this moment, they care about how good you can be.
This season, take Florida quarterback Kyle Trask and Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence for example. It is one of the best, most clear-cut pictures of this in recent memory.
Statistically, Trask has had a better season than Lawrence. Granted, Lawrence missed two games due to testing positive for COVID-19 earlier in the season. However, Lawrence would still not have approached Trask's numbers in 2020.
Trask: 4,125 yards, 43 touchdowns, five interceptions.
Lawrence: 2,753 yards, 22 touchdowns, four interceptions.
Trask's numbers are better by a considerable margin, and that was against better competition in the SEC than Lawrence faces in the ACC. So, why is Lawrence considered the best NFL prospect in over a decade, while Trask may not get selected in the first round of this year's NFL Draft?
Again, it is about the ceiling, not production. Lawrence has all of the tools that no coach can teach. He has the size, speed, arm strength and anticipation to play at a ridiculously high level on Sundays.
Trask has some of these qualities. He certainly has the size at 6-foot-5, 240 pounds and certainly has shown anticipation with his throws. But can he make plays with his feet like this?
Any of you who have watched Trask run understand that the obvious answer to this is no. Further, Lawrence has a natural release of the football that is so rare in any quarterback. Plenty of NFL signal-callers don't even have it. But the ones that do are some of the league's best QBs. Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers come to mind.
Look at how effortless the throw below is for Lawrence. The receiver was already open, but this winds up being a 67-yard touchdown for Amari Rodgers because Lawrence places it perfectly in stride for him. Pay attention to how he barely even stepped into this throw and had pressure in his face.
This passed looked like he was still in warmups in terms of effort and could not have been placed better.
Hear what I am saying: Trask can make this same exact throw. It just takes more effort. Every throw from Trask seems like he had to work for it harder than Lawrence, it isn't as natural or easy.
Trask can clearly play. This play shows an excellent knack for where to move within the pocket as he hits Jacob Copeland right between the numbers for a score.
And an important note: This argument shouldn't have anything to do with the Heisman Trophy, which leads to confusion for some. The Heisman Trophy is defined in favor of college football's most outstanding player, not the most outstanding draft prospect. Lawrence might have the edge as a prospect, but that isn't a Heisman argument.
This does not mean that Trask will be a bad NFL quarterback or Lawrence will be a guaranteed star. It just means that the likelihood favors Lawrence because of natural talent that coaches cannot teach. His ceiling is astronomically high.
For Trask, what is around him will perhaps be more important for him to succeed. His lack of mobility means certainly being dependent on a really good offensive line.
The draft often proves us wrong and makes us all who predict the trajectory of a career look like fools, but the odds favor Lawrence to be a star better than most.
