Florida Gators vs. Georgia Bulldogs: Picks and Predictions
The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party is here, with the Florida Gators (4-3, 1-3 SEC) set to take on the No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs (7-0, 4-0 SEC) at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Fla. on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Georgia is considered a 23.5-point favorite over Florida, according to the Sports Illustrated Sportsbook. The over/under has been set at 56 points.
You can find All Gators' picks and predictions for the matchup below.
Zach Goodall (4-3): Georgia 34, Florida 21
A trend you’ll notice in our predictions, warranted or not, is that none of All Gators’ staff members believe Georgia will cover the 23.5-point spread this weekend.
Maybe we’re just optimistic. Maybe we’re relying too much on history suggesting this game is almost, aside from in 2021, always close.
Or maybe we’re onto something. Probably not, but hear me out.
The Bulldogs are again a relatively convincing No. 1 squad, but the loss of more star talents than you can count on two hands forced their offensive into an identity shift and has created some softer spots in their defense than the one on display a year ago. The linebacker corps and safety unit have been susceptible in coverage at times this season, which could provide opportunities for receiver Ricky Pearsall and tight end Keon Zipperer to produce big gains.
It helps that, in his last four games, Gators quarterback Anthony Richardson has completed 59.1 percent of his passes, averaged 10.2 yards per attempt and thrown for 944 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions, sharpening his production compared to his first three starts of the year.
UF has also found success rushing against the SEC's second-through-fourth-best rushing defenses this season, leading me to like the Gators' chances to at least move the ball on the ground efficiently if not explosively against UGA's No. 1-ranked unit in the SEC as well.
Georgia has one player on its offense that can take over a game, and it's at a position that Florida has struggled to defend this year: Tight end Brock Bowers. I think he'll do just that, likely carrying the Bulldogs' offense with numerous scores. My question is, can anyone else? Bowers and Dillon Bell are UGA's only pass-catchers with multiple touchdowns (two apiece), and while the rushing attack is efficient, there is no go-to running back like Todd Gurley, Nick Chubb, or Zamir White like in years past.
UGA is going to score points, but not enough to blow UF out. And the Gators have enough going for them to move the ball, at least on the ground and potentially in the passing game to the middle of the field. That's why Florida won't lose by more than three touchdowns as widely predicted.
That all being said, there's no reason for me to pick Florida to actually win the game. The talent gap is obvious between the reigning national champions and a rebuilding UF team that nearly lost to USF and Missouri earlier this season and is just 1-3 in conference play. But I think my projection would be a respectable result, all things considered, for a 23.5-point underdog, almost cutting the spread in half.
Brandon Carroll (4-3): Georgia 31, Florida 20
The best — or worst depending on how you look at it — time of the year is here. It’s Georgia week.
Defensively, Florida still has a lot to work out to reach the status of contention against the reigning national champion with an offense ticking at a top-five level.
While the adjustments made to that side of the ball, particularly on third downs, throughout the bye week will be on supreme display, the Florida offense is the area to watch in this one.
Despite the beef presented on the Georgia defensive line, Florida will sustain a decent rushing attack to set up passes down the field.
When the Bulldogs get aggressive — which they will, with Will Muschamp calling plays knowing the effect pressure has had on Gators quarterback Anthony Richardson this season — Florida exploits that to look over the top of the dropping safeties his defense is known for.
The variation of the deep post we’ve seen Richardson connect on to wide receiver Justin Shorter on multiple occasions this season will arise again as the 6-foot-4, 225-pound wideout pushes vertical against the smaller boundary defensive backs of UGA.
I’m not sure when it will come — although if tendencies mean anything it would be on the first drive, as it has been on three separate occasions this year — but I’m confident it will.
The pressure from the Dawgs will limit play action significantly, where Florida has excelled this season, and create the need for moving pockets and levels concepts with Richardson working to one side of the field.
Getting the uber-talented quarterback’s legs moving early and often will be a major aspect of the overall success, as it usually is.
But, despite the unit's best efforts to throw wrinkles into the game, UF’s offense as a whole will be stymied by one of the most talented defensive units in the nation.
Ultimately, the discrepancy in talent leaning heavily in Georgia’s favor will allow the Bulldogs to prevail. I think Florida keeps it close for much of the contest, but a late Georgia touchdown puts the improbable upset out of reach for the Gators.
Georgia will roll out of Jacksonville Saturday night with a 31-20 victory to set up a crucial matchup for the SEC East title against undefeated Tennessee in Athens, Ga.
CJ Clarke (5-2): Georgia 38, Florida 24
The Florida Gators are set to square off against the defending national champs and No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs in Jacksonville for their annual rivalry game.
Just like last year, Georgia comes into the game undefeated and UF enters with a 4-3 record. Unlike last year, UF does not have a lame-duck coach at the helm.
After the bye week, both teams should return some important players from injury with defensive tackle Jalen Carter and wide receiver AD Mitchell potentially back for the Dawgs, and guard O’Cyrus Torrence back for the Gators.
Not many people are giving Florida a chance in this game, thus the 23.5 point-spread in favor of the Dawgs.
While I do think Georgia comes out with the win, I don’t think it will be quite as ugly as a 24-point blowout. Anthony Richardson seems to play better on the road, and while this isn’t a true road game, he will certainly look to bounce back after his first-ever start didn’t go the way he had hoped last year in this game.
I think Florida will look to get the running backs more involved in the passing game as they seem to be the strength of the offense so far this season, specifically Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne, who have both shown the ability to be effective pass catchers. If Florida is able to push the ball downfield with any kind of consistency they could make this game fairly interesting, but we haven't seen them do it so far this season and Georgia's pass rush of Nolan Smith and Robert Beal Jr. isn't going to give Richardson much time.
At the end of the day, the talent gap will just be too much for the Gators to overcome and Georgia should win this one by double digits.
Chris Thornton: Georgia 38, Florida 24
Another Florida/Georgia week is upon us and the Gators once again come into Jacksonville as the underdog against the Bulldogs. At the time of this article, Florida comes in as 23.5 point underdogs. Personally, I don’t see UF losing by that much, as stated by the score prediction.
My feeling for this game is a little more optimistic than some. I think the Gators' pass rush could help keep the defense in the game early and I’m also expecting a strong game from quarterback Anthony Richardson. Much like the performance against Tennessee, the offense is likely going to have to be the heartbeat of the team if the Gators are to have any shot at knocking out the Bulldogs.
If there is a glimmer of hope for the Gators' defense, however, it lies on the shoulders of the Gator’s pass rush, specifically on edge rusher Brenton Cox Jr. Cox leads the defense in total pressures with 19 and the Gators going to need a big day from the redshirt junior. Coming off of his two best games of the season with two sacks and four tackles for loss against Missouri and LSU combined, lightning will need to strike a third time for the Gators' edge rusher.
I'm expecting a contest where both teams remain closely knotted up, but Georgia's talent pushes harder in the end. The Bulldogs will pull away in the fourth quarter and secure their eighth win of the season.
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