Game Preview: Boston U
No rest for the weary as FSU is right back at it after dominating the Jacksonville Classic this weekend. We saw two years ago after Florida State won the Emerald Coast Classic then has to go straight up to Indiana to play in the ACC/B1G Challenge.
Luckily, FSU gets Boston U instead of Indiana, and dominated the Jacksonville Classic compared to the Emerald Coast Classic where both games came down to the wire. And Boston is coming off of their own Jacksonville tournament, beating Northern Illinois on Sunday and Sam Houston State on Monday, each by double digits as well.
These two teams have only played once before, with Boston winning 84-69 in late December 2002.
This game will be at 7pm EST on the ACC Network, live from the Donald L Tucker Center.
Boston Terriers (4-2) Breakdown
The Terriers come to town with much more experience than almost any other team Florida State will play this season. They return 88% of their scoring and minutes from a season ago, 5 of their top 6 leading scorers are seniors, with the one that isn't a senior being a junior, and their entire projected starting 5 are seniors. These guys have been around the block.
Boston was the projected favorite in the Patriot League, which if you've been keeping up with college basketball, has been sticking it to power conference teams to start. Navy beat Virginia first game of the year, Colgate beat Syracuse last week and gave NC State fits, Lafayette beat Rutgers, and Lehigh took Rutgers to overtime (Rutgers may just be terrible). If those perceived "lesser" teams can beat ACC teams, so can the perceived best team in the conference.
This will not be a game FSU can sleep walk through, especially since Boston plays at such a slow pace of play; their 66.4 possessions per 40 minutes is bottom 60 nationally. They've had some mind-numbing games already, including a 49-48 snoozer against Northeastern (I won't be subjecting anyone to this game, but each team shot 47 shots, just over one shot a minute per team).
Usually with this slow pace of play teams, it's because they're working for the best shot possible. When you look at their shot type analytics, they're pretty good across the board: 0.938 points per possession in spot-ups, 1.014 PPP in transition, 0.952 PPP in post-ups, and 1.179 PPP in PnR Ball Handler situations. FSU won't play many teams that post up as much as Boston does, so it'll be a unique test for Florida State's bigs.
Their defense is just about average, they'll run mostly man-to-man, but teams have really been struggling to shoot the 3 against them, so far shooting just 27.5% against them. FSU is going to have to capitalize on the open looks generated in the flow of the offense.
Boston is led in scoring by Javante McCoy who can score from all three levels and is also leading the team in points (16.0 PPG) and assists. He has good size at 6'5", so he may not be as overwhelmed by FSU's length. Walter Whyte is about 50/50 on shot attempts from 2 and from 3, so he's another guy that FSU is going to have to be aware of where he is on the floor. A couple of other shooters to keep an eye on are Anthony Morales and Miles Brewster, though Brewster doesn't play as much. Jonas Harper is taking a lot of 3s, but isn't making many to start the season, though he is a career 37% 3-point shooter and can get hot at any moment. Not much of an attacker, don't expect him to get many free throw attempts.
Where Boston presents a unique challenge is their post presences in Sukhmail Mathon and Nevin Zink. Mathon will get more opportunities and shots, but Zink is shooting 70% so far this season, almost an impossible number to keep up. They're going to provide interesting matchups for FSU's bigs, even if they're not quite as tall as FSU.
Fletcher Tynen and Garrett Pascoe will be the other players you see getting minutes, but Tynen is more of a slasher on offense, and a solid defender. Pascoe is more of a high energy and effort player.
Florida State Seminoles (4-1) Breakdown
FSU absolutely dominated on defense this weekend, going from 28th in KenPom's defensive efficiency to 10th in just two games (edit: is now 11th following Monday's games... I guess). Creating 41 turnovers and holding two talented teams to below 40% from the floor is a great way to improve your defensive standing. Now they'll have to get right back at it tonight on not much rest.
What we're hoping is that the offense picks up where they left off in Jacksonville. In those two games, they shot a combined 62/111 (55.9%) from the floor and 18/43 (41.9%) from 3. They were finally making the open shots we've been begging them to make to start the season. In their third game in four days, it's fair to expect some dead legs or some lesser effort.
The best part about their MTE wins is they were able to empty the bench in both games, and no one played more than 24 minutes in either game. That's perfect in games where you're playing back to back days; it's not like old AAU where you're playing three games in a day and 28 minutes in each game.
In an ideal world, this is a tune-up game for the Purdue matchup next Tuesday, as FSU won't play again until then.
Injury Report
No injuries to report for either side.
Projected Starters
Florida State
G: RayQuan Evans
G: Caleb Mills
G: Anthony Polite
F: Malik Osborne
C: Tanor Ngom
Boston U
G: Jonas Harper
G: Javante McCoy
G: Walter Whyte
G: Fletcher Tyson
C: Sukhmail Mathon
Keys to the Game
Make Your Open Shots
Boston has one of the best 3-point defenses to start the season so far. Teams are shooting just 27.5% from 3 against the Terriers. This is one of those games where FSU is going to have to continue using the drive to open up the looks from 3 as they did against Missouri. It may not feel like it, but FSU is shooting 37% from 3 as a team through 6 games.
Pick up the Pace
Boston plays with one of the slower tempos in the country, but they still turn it over about 15 times per game. If Florida State can force them to pick up the pace, they can pressure them into some major mistakes. And once FSU can force a team into mistakes, they can really get in their opponents' heads.
Wear Down With Depth
Florida State has just been unrelenting on defense so far this season, and it'll need to be a similar effort tonight to get in and get out. Coach Hamilton was phenomenal at not leaving anyone in the game too long and always having fresh bodies. As soon as the first 5 wears you down, there's a fresh 5-man unit ready to check-in and ready to give you 100%. That's vital against an experienced team like Boston
Game Prediction
Florida State is a 16.5-point favorite, with an over-under of 134.5.
I'm expecting this game to be kind of ugly with both teams coming off of back-to-back games on Sunday and Monday with only one day of rest. There might be some short shots, some dead legs, and not as much effort on some plays.
I'm going with a lower-scoring game, FSU 67-54.
