Game Preview: Florida State at North Carolina
We're entering uncharted waters for Florida State. They're currently amidst a 5-game losing streak, which is the longest since they lost 5 straight in 2016. If FSU were to drop this one as well, which seems likely, it would be the longest losing streak since they lost 9 in a row in 2005. It's crazy that about three weeks ago we were talking about this team having turned a corner. Injuries and youth have caught up quickly with this team.
Playing at the Dean Dome has not been kind to Florida State, having won just one game there since 2000. Even if UNC is a mercurial team this season, they've still been very strong at home, only having lost to Duke. They're in their first season under Hubert Davis and seem to still be working out some kinks here and there.
Overall, UNC leads this series 51-16 and is 13-1 at home in this series since 2000. This is a tall mountain to climb for a reeling Florida State team. Even if FSU were fully healthy, I'd probably have still taken UNC, but given how banged up the team is, there's a chance for this one to get ugly.
This game will be at 2 pm on ESPN, live from the Dean Smith Center in Chapel Hill, NC.
North Carolina Tar Heels (17-7, 9-4) Breakdown
It's hard to get a read on what exactly this team is. To me, it's a classic good, but not great scenario. As a team that is 17-7, they're 3-7 against teams that are in the top-70 of KenPom's rankings (FWIW: FSU currently sits 95th), and those three wins are against Furman, a 13-9 Michigan, and a 14-10 Virginia Tech. Not exactly anything to write home about. They have zero good wins, but a lot of good losses. It's hard to judge a team like that.
As always, UNC plays fast, They're top-40 in pace of play, around 70.6 possessions per 40 minutes. If you allow them to play at their own pace, things can get ugly. They're going to get out in transition, get some offensive putback, and hit a pick-and-pop 3 to break your spirit. FSU is likely going to want to follow the game plan Boston College had on their trip to Chapel Hill. They're going to want to slow the pace down as much as possible (this game only had 64 possessions), make every shot tough on the interior (UNC was 10/38 from 2), and force Caleb Love to beat you. They didn't want anyone to really touch the ball, and I think FSU may try something similar. Even if UNC won that game 58-47, to see UNC score that few is a little jaw-dropping.
Due to unforeseen circumstances, UNC is playing without Anthony Harris and Dawson Garcia right now, so they're only playing 6 guys consistently; which is their starting lineup of Caleb Love, RJ Davis, Leaky Black, Brady Manek, and Armando Bacot, with Kerwin Walton off of the bench. That's about it. Every now and then, Puff Johnson and Justin McKoy will get a couple of minutes, but they very rarely play more than 10 minutes in a game. It's a very short rotation. If this was peak FSU that was always wearing their opponents down, it'd be an interesting matchup.
Offensively, they're not as efficient inside the arc compared to teams of the past. Hubert Davis has moved away from the double posts system in favor of more spacing to give Armando Bacot more room to operate. It's had its moments, but it hasn't had resounding success. Where the success has been seen, it's behind the arc. Brady Manek, RJ Davis, and Caleb Love are all shooting 40% or better from 3. That's half of your rotation. Factor in Kerwin Walton being a career 39.6% from 3, and Leaky Black making 10 of his 25 3-pointers on the season, and the idea of an inside-out offense seems like it should be working really, really well. As a team, they're shooting 38.4% from distance, and are good free throw shooters as well. They can then tie it all together with Bacot and his 40th ranked offensive rebound rate in the country.
Defensively, they're not the greatest, but what they do really, really well is finish the possession with a defensive rebound. They've only allowed an offensive rebounding rate of more than 30% just twice all season, a staggering number. Florida State's offensive rebound on the season is 32%, for comparison. This is a style that will likely favor UNC. While they're great at rebounding, they're really bad at forcing turnovers. Their forced turnover rate of 13.6% is bottom-10 nationally. FSU will be hoping to not make too many mental mistakes.
As mentioned earlier, this is really only a 6-man rotation. The two players to really get familiar with are Caleb Love and Armando Bacot. Love came back for a sophomore season to improve his efficiency and playmaking. His 3-point percentage has gone up tremendously, though his 2-point percentage is almost the same, and his assist rate has actually gone down, but so have his turnovers. To me, his biggest improvement has been getting to the free-throw line. You have to find a way to contest his tough twos without fouling.
Bacot is extremely difficult to handle down low, especially on the glass. He's a great shot blocker, is shooting 58.6% from 2, and is one of the better bigs at not turning it over. This is going to be an incredibly tough matchup for an FSU team that is lacking quality bigs.
Brady Manek is a sniper from 3 a stretch 4, shooting 40% from 3, and his pick-and-pop game is lethal. He has taken the most 3s of anyone on the roster. He's not that great of a rebounder or defender, though part of that is him having to play more of the 4 than he would probably prefer.
RJ Davis is a prototypical 2-guard: team-leading 42.6% from 3, good secondary ball-handler and distributor, and doesn't make a ton of mistakes. FSU is really going to have to keep an eye on him moving off of the ball. Kerwin Walton is a great backup to him because they can run the same sets for these two and get similar results with no drop-off. It's an ideal scenario, though Walton isn't as good of a distributor as Davis.
Somehow, Leaky Black will be starting his 83rd career game. I don't understand it. He's a career 5 PPG that has seemingly regressed every year since his sophomore season. He's incredibly athletic and can defend well, but outside of that... I don't really have anything good to say about him. If you can find a way for the ball to be in his hands, I think you'd be satisfied with that.
Florida State Seminoles (13-10, 6-7) Breakdown
FSU's chances for an at-large bid are dead. Over with. For them to make the NCAA Tournament, their only hope is to win the ACC Tournament. It sucks watching the team like this: hesitant, lacking confidence, unsure of their principles... It honestly doesn't even look like a Florida State team.
As bad as the Pitt game was (and boy was it bad), there was one thing they stumbled on that I liked: the matchup zone. This team has really struggled in man-to-man defensive rotations, but the matchup zone seemed to simplify a lot of their issues on that end, while still allowing them to press full-court and just drop back into that matchup. There are still a couple of things they need to clean up like there were times when the top guards crashed down too hard, but hopefully, they'll work on it and learn from it.
The thing that worked with that matchup zone is John Butler at the 5. He's not big enough to hang with a lot of bigs, but if you can zone it up, it masks a lot of the weaknesses with him in the post. It reminds me of when FSU would stick Jonathan Isaac at the 5 for small stints in certain games, Isaac was just a little better naturally as a shot-blocker.
I am extremely worried about how FSU's big rotation of Tanor Ngom, Quincy Ballard, and Harrison Prieto will perform against Armando Bacot. They're probably going to try and just get him in foul trouble as soon as possible and hope for the best. That's about the only way you're going to slow him down against this rotation of bigs.
This won't be one of my keys to the game, but I'm expecting them to throw as much pressure as possible against Caleb Love as possible. He's susceptible to turnovers and is still not that efficient shooting the basketball. If you can flummox him, it can shut a lot of their first options down.
Injury Report
Malik Osborne is out for the season with an ankle injury.
Naheem McLeod is out for the season with a hand injury.
Anthony Polite is out for the season with a wrist injury.
Dawson Garcia is out for UNC with a family emergency.
Anthony Harris is out for UNC, though Coach Davis hasn't announced why.
Projected Starters
North Carolina
G: Caleb Love
G: RJ Davis
G: Leaky Black
F: Brady Manek
C: Armando Bacot
Florida State
G: RayQuan Evans
G: Caleb Mills
G: Matthew Cleveland
F: John Butler
C: Tanor Ngom
Keys to the Game
Box Out Armando Bacot
Bacot is one of the best rebounders in the country, ranking 40th in offensive rebound rate and 9th in defensive rebound rate. He's a one-man wrecking crew down low, so if FSU doesn't get bodies (yes, plural) on him, he can single-handedly take control of the game. It's going to be an interesting matchup against FSU's limited big depth.
Guard the Pick and Pop
With Hubert Davis coming in, he's tried to modernize the offensive system a little bit to give Bacot some room to work down low; no more twin posts. UNC is at the peak efficiency offensively when the pick and pop is rolling. Brady Manek in particular can be really dangerous from 3. Before their last game against Clemson, he had been 15/26 from 3 in the three games leading into it. When that isn't working, they'll have off-ball movements to get Kerwin Walton and RJ Davis some open looks.
Don't Be Afraid of the Paint
Duke slaughtered UNC by getting into the paint and being efficient inside the arc, shooting 25/40 inside the arc. Florida State has really struggled at the rim recently, shooting just 4/13 on layups against Pitt. Safe to say, that can't happen in this one if they want any chance. Matthew Cleveland and Caleb Mills in particular have been good at getting to the rim, but less than good at finishing once they're there.
Game Prediction
North Carolina sits as 8.5-point favorites with an over/under of 146.5.
FSU just lost to Pitt. I have no hope they'll be able to contend in this one, given how much UNC likes to run up and down the floor. FSU is going to have to find a way to slow this game down. One day, I'll see FSU win in the Dean Dome, it just won't be this year.
UNC 77-65
