Game Preview: Florida State Basketball vs. Wake Forest
It is unbelievable how fast things can change in two weeks. FSU was sitting on top of the ACC after beating Duke and Miami in the same week, and it really felt like they were well on their way to a great season, especially given the stretch of games following. FSU is 0-3 since that game at Miami, and injuries have completely ravaged this team.
It's going to be really tough for FSU to make the tournament at this point, just given who is out. Malik Osborne just had surgery on his ankle, Naheem McLeod had surgery on his hand, and Anthony Polite was announced out for the foreseeable future with a wrist injury. Losing your two most experienced players is going to be a lot to overcome for a team that was already young.
At a minimum, FSU has to close this season 7-2, and that's a lot harder than it may have looked two weeks ago. It's going to start here with a game at home against Wake Forest, a team that demolished Florida State at the start of January 76-54. That's a tough ask.
This game will be at 12pm EST on Bally Sports (yuck), live from the Donald L. Tucker Center.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (18-5, 8-4) Breakdown
These two teams have played before, so we're really just going to look at a closer breakdown of the first game. What went right, what went wrong, what needs to change, etc.
What Went Right: For Wake Forest? Everything, but more specifically, they were able to get the free throw line at will and did a great job of rebounding. They shot 27 free throws, hit 21 of them, and out-rebounded FSU 53-30. The first matchup had a lot of fouls and a lot of possessions, with a total of 78 possessions. That pace of play fits Wake a lot better than it fits Florida State.
Alondes Williams and Jake LaRavia both had 20+ points and Khadim Sy had a season high 16 points off of the bench. Williams in particular had the game at his fingertips. He was able to get to his spots, drive to his right whenever he wanted, and dictated the pace of the game, especially in the first half. LaRavia had one of his best games in the season by pretty much doing the same thing, getting to his right hand, just doing whatever he wanted to do.
What Went Wrong: Really just turnovers for Wake Forest. They turned it over 22 times in 78 possessions and still found a way to win by 20+. If it weren't for the turnovers, they likely would've won by 30. Wake would also probably prefer to shoot the 3 better than 5/19, but when they shoot 55.6% from 2 and shoot 27 free throws, you can live with it. Again, other that that, it was very smooth sailing for the Demon Deacons in the first matchup.
What Has to Change: FSU needs to defend without fouling. They accumulated a total of 22 fouls, and many different players had 2 fouls in the first half, enough to the point where Justin Lindner had to see a few minutes, Matthew Cleveland played about 90 seconds in the first half, and again Wake shot 27 free throws.
They also just need to defend in general, especially on the perimeter. Guys like WIlliams and LaRavia were able to get where they wanted, when they wanted. Anthony Polite and Malik Osborne were two of the better defenders on this team, so it's going to be interesting to see how FSU adjusts.
Florida State Seminoles (13-8, 6-5) Breakdown
The 'Noles are going to have to find someone to step up on rebounding. Malik Osborne and Anthony Polite are this team's leading rebounders, and Naheem had really turned it on as of late, with 7 rebounds in two of the last five games. Having to rebound without those three guys means players like John Butler, Tanor Ngom, Cam'Ron Fletcher... they're going to have to find a way to attack the glass, especially in this game and against UNC next weekend.
FSU has lost the last three games in the last four minutes of the first half. In those 12 minutes of basketball, they're -27 and have allowed 42 points. That's simply unacceptable. Trying to dig yourself out of those kinds of holes game after game is taxing, physically and mentally. There are things like turnovers, rebounds, and missed opportunities that you can point to, but the effort just has to be at another level in those minutes.
About the only thing FSU did well in the first game between these two was force turnovers. They forced a whopping 22 turnovers, and still found a way to lose the game by 24. I'm expecting them to keep up that kind of defensive pressure, but they also need a way to slow Wake Forest down. 78 possessions between these two in the first game was the most FSU has played in an ACC game this season by a lot. We're used to seeing past FSU teams get up and down the court, but that isn't what this team is right now.
We saw FSU tinker against Clemson. They broke out zone defenses, bigs weren't switching on pick-and-rolls anymore, and the offense seemed to feature more and more back cuts. They're trying to find anything that will work, especially on defense. Guys are so often out of position in man defense that I don't blame the staff for trying something new and seeing if they respond better to that. I wouldn't be surprised to see more zone going forward.
Injury Report
This report just keeps getting longer and longer.
Malik Osborne is out for the season with an ankle injury, and just had surgery on Thursday.
Naheem McLeod broke his hand against Clemson, and also just had surgery on it. He'll miss the rest of the season.
Anthony Polite is out for the foreseeable future with a wrist injury. I'd put in our NoleGameday Patreon that he left Clemson with a brace on his wrist, so the news didn't surprise me at all.
Projected Starters
Florida State
G: RayQuan Evans
G: Caleb Mills
G: Matthew Cleveland
F: John Butler
C: Tanor Ngom
Wake Forest
G: Daivien Williamson
G: Alondes Williams
G: Jake LaRavia
F: Isaiah Mucius
C: Dallas Walton
Keys to the Game
3-Point Differential
Yes, I know I'm officially a broken record with this now, but it's going to continue being a theme until FSU figures out their 3-point defense. Wake isn't the greatest 3-point shooting team, shooting about 34.7% from deep. Three of their five losses came when they shot below 26% from 3.
On the other end, FSU is going to have to make some 3s without two of their best shooters in Osborne and Polite. Four of Wake's five losses have been the four highest 3-point percentages given up all season; all above 45% from 3.
Alondes Williams and the Free Throw Line
Williams is Wake's best player, but he excels at getting to the free throw line. In the first matchup, he had 7 free throw attempts, but he's had multiple games this season with 10+ free throws. He uses getting to the line as a way to get guys from playing physical, it gets him in rhythm. You have to find a way to play him straight up without fouling, and you definitely can't let him straight line drive.
Rebounding
Florida State was demolished on the boards against Clemson 37-24. Without Osborne and McLeod going forward, rebounding is going to be a hot commodity and someone will have to step up. Even when these two played in early January, Wake dominated on the glass 53-30. Safe to say, that can't happen again if FSU wants a chance at winning this one. Get it as close to even as possible.
Game Prediction
Florida State currently sits as 3-point favorites (depending on the site you look at), with an over/under of around 146.5.
FSU has to win, I just don't know that they can with the way they're currently playing. Wake has already proven they can beat FSU... by a lot. Until FSU can prove me wrong, I just don't see them beating Wake Forest right now,
Wake 75-71
