Game Preview: Louisville vs. Florida State
Florida State comes home after getting curb stomped in Winston-Salem by Wake Forest, and now they're in desperate need of something to get them back on track. They've had a lot of success against Louisville in the past few years, so maybe this is the opportunity they need.
We'll talk about the Wake game in a little bit (wasn't able to do my usual coverage for the game, storm in my area knocked out the internet for about three days), but Louisville has been of to a strong start in conference play with wins against NC State, Pitt, Wake Forest, and Georgia Tech, and no losses so far. If they were to beat FSU, a 5-0 start in ACC play is a great starting point.
FSU has dominated this series as of late, winning 4 straight, including 5 of the last 6, with the last three by 13 points or more. Ever since Chris Mack went to Louisville after being at Xavier, it's fueled something in Florida State to just go a little harder, even if UL dominates the all-time record in this series.
We need good vibes, so here's a reminder of what happened the last time these two played in Tallahassee.
This game will be at 8pm EST on ESPNU, live from the Donald L Tucker Center.
Louisville Cardinals (10-4, 4-0) Breakdown
If anyone can make sense of what this Louisville game, please raise your hand, because I have absolutely no idea. A team that is 4-0 in conference with wins over NC State, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and Pittsburgh has also lost to Michigan State, DePaul, Western Kentucky, and Furman. They may be 4-0 in conference, but those 4 wins are by an average of less than 4 points per game (which really gives credence to Coach Hamilton's philosophy of 4 points or more being an ACC blowout), which may speak more about the current state of the ACC more than anything.
This team really just doesn't make sense to me. They have two extremely talented shooters in Noah Locke and Matt Cross, who are both shooting below 36% from 3, much lower than players of their caliber should be. They got one of the best JUCO transfers in the country in El Ellis who is taking less than 6 shots per game. From an outside view, it just seems to me that they're relying on the wrong players. Neither Locke or Cross were guys that were relied upon at their previous stops (Florida and Miami, respectively) to be top options, yet they're two of the top 3 scorers on the team. We'll get to this more in a second, but this team just hasn't been what anyone was really expecting.
They make their money defensively, similarly to FSU. Chris Mack runs the infamous pack-line defense, though it's not quite as stingy as the vaulted Virginia defense in recent memory. Things will be packed in tight, and Florida State is going to have to be tough with the ball as they drive to the basket. There's not a lot of size or athleticism on the perimeter for UL's guards, so FSU needs to play some bully ball here and there. Their FG and 3PT defense is one of the best conference, and they do just a phenomenal job of finishing defensive possessions with a rebound. Where the Cardinals struggle more than anything is with fouling. It's basically one free throw attempt for every three field goal attempts. If there's something FSU can exploit, it's this. They showed early in the South Carolina game that they can put their head down and get to the basket when they want.
Noah Locke is tied for the scoring lead on this team which is... not exactly ideal, just from what I remember with his time at Florida. More than 65% of his shots are coming from behind the arc, where he's hitting them at just an okay 35%. He can absolutely be dangerous from behind the arc, but as long as FSU is making those shots as tough as possible and closing out that airspace, he can get uncomfortable fast.
Malik Williams is the other player on this team averaging double figures with 11.1 PPG. The battle of the Malik's between Williams and FSU's Osborne is going to be very intriguing. Williams is one of the best defensive rebounders in the country and Osborne is one of the best offensive rebounders. Osborne is top-20 across every player in college basketball in offensive rating, and Williams is one of the best shot blockers in the country. Should be a fun matchup with these two as Williams is really the only true big on the roster. You'll see Sydney Curry and Roosevelt Wheeler spell him here and there, but it's not for much time.
Matt Cross comes over from Miami after leaving early during last season and transferring, it was a strange situation. Louisville has been playing a little better with him in the starting lineup since it gives them a little more spacing, I still just don't think he's a guy you can entirely rely on. His shot attempts are almost exactly what they were while he was in Coral Gables, but his 3pt% has actually gone down from 40% to this year's 33.3%. 59% of his shots come from behind the arc.
I'm really high on Dre Davis and what he can do as a player, he just has to be more efficient. He rebounds really well for someone his size at 6'5", he just gambles a little too much on both sides of the ball. Gets caught on reach-ins and bad fouls more than anyone else on the team, and has more turnovers than assists. Currently shooting just 21.4% from 3 and 40.4% from the floor.
Jarrod West is an undersized guard who is more playmaker than anything, I think he's going to be pushed around a little bit against FSU. He's a pretty good passer and posts a pretty high assist rate, but he's not much of a threat to score, shooting 35% from the floor and 24% from 3.
El Ellis played JUCO ball at Tallahassee Community College, so expect him to try and make a couple of extra plays in front of friends and a community he knows well. He's an extremely gifted scorer, and someone that can light up in a hurry. Florida State can't let him dictate the game.
Samuell Williamson is a great hustle player, who is always willing to do the dirty work which is why he starts. Like a lot of the team, he can falter under some pressure though, I think FSU is going to try and force him to be a creator, something I don't think he's entirely comfortable with.
A couple of other players to mention: Mason Faulkner who is another undersized PG that is a nifty creator for others, not much for himself, and Jae'Lyn Withers, an extremely gifted player who seems like he's being forced out of the rotation more and more.
Florida State Seminoles (7-5, 1-2) Breakdown
The Seminoles are coming off of their worst offensive performance in nearly a decade. Their 0.69 against Wake Forest is the worst they've posted since losing 56-36 to Virginia on January 19, 2013 (FSU would follow it up with a 60-57 win over Clemson the next game), a PPP outing of 0.66. So, it's fairly safe to say they can only go up from here (hopefully).
Since I didn't get a chance to cover the game and do my usual game-changing plays, let's talk about one in particular.
Florida State was in the middle of one of the roughest offensive stretches you will ever see before Cam'Ron Fletcher and Justin Lindner started making a couple of plays on defense. Fletcher got out in transition the play before, finished at the rim, and there was some life in the team. Then this play above happens. It goes from "this feels like Florida State is about to really go on a run" to the body language being terrible and nothing right happening. And man is it just a disgusting call. Very certain Fletcher never made contact and the ref was out of position in transition to make the call.
You could tell any confidence the team might've had was ripped from them. Five players had two fouls in the first half, so Hamilton was digging deep into the bench to find guys to play. The biggest impact was Matthew Cleveland who played a total of 90 seconds in the first half, then comes out in the second half and leads the team in scoring for the game. That's about all you need to know about the team's offensive performance.
They'll now look to recover from their second-worst 3-point shooting performance of the season against a team that is one of the best in the conference in 3-point defense. It's also a Louisville team that isn't afraid to get in your face with some press, and FSU can be a little shaky at times with their press breaks.
Injury Report
Tanor Ngom is out indefinitely with a knee injury.
Guard Mike James is out for the season with a torn Achilles.
Projected Starters
Florida State
G: RayQuan Evans
G: Caleb Mills
G: Anthony Polite
F: John Butler
F: Malik Osborne
Louisville
G: Jarrod West
G: Noah Locke
G: Matt Cross
F: Samuell Williamson
C: Malik Williams
Keys to the Game
Ball Pressure
With how inconsistent Florida State's offense is, they need to generate as many transition opportunities as possible, and it just so happens that Louisville can be a little loose with the basketball. 10 of their 14 games, they've posted a turnover rate of 15% that higher, while FSU is one of the best teams in the country at forcing TOs, with a forced TO rate of 24.9%.
Forcing turnovers also forces Louisville to speed up, which is something you want. Louisville has had 7 games with more than 70 possessions (they average right at 70 possessions per game, below average), and all four losses had more than 70 possessions. This game may look a little helter-skelter, but it may be by design for FSU.
Confidence
Florida State needs some positive momentum. They thought they had it after the NC State game, just for Wake Forest to pull out that rug from under them. They need to see some shots go through the basket early and often, they can't afford a 9 minute stretch of no baskets like they suffered against Wake. Get a couple of big dunks, hit a couple of corner 3s, and let's get this party rolling.
Shot Making
Both teams have really struggled with shot making at times despite both teams having talented shooters. Louisville has had 6 games shooting below 27% from 3 and 4 games shooting below 40% from the floor. Florida State is in a similar boat with 4 games below 30% from 3 (including 2 below 20%) and 4 games below 40% from the floor. Louisville in particular is pretty solid at containing teams from shooting the ball well, ranking top-75 in 3-point defense. It's cliche and underwhelming to say "whoever makes the most shots wins" which I get it what I'm alluding to, but in a roundabout way it's the truth. Some team here is going to have to figure out a way to make some shots.
Game Prediction
Florida State opened as 4.5-point favorites (somehow) with an over/under of 138.5.
I'm... shocked Florida State is favored, just by recent trends. Louisville is undefeated in conference play so far, even if every win was unconvincing, whereas FSU is coming off being obliterated by Wake Forest. It's a game both teams are looking forward to, as I'm sure there will be a little chippiness from both team. I'm also expecting this to be low scoring.
Florida State 67-66
