Game Preview: Notre Dame at Florida State
Florida State is coming off of one of the most exhilarating games of college basketball this season, closing the game against Virginia on a 10-3 run over the final 1:25. Everyone has seen the shot by now, but it never hurts to see it again.
We'll talk about this game more later, but this young FSU team is going to have to move past this against a Notre Dame team that has quietly been really good this year. ND kept FSU from winning the ACC regular season last year, FSU can do the same for ND tonight.
FSU owns the all-time series 7-5, including being perfect against the Irish in Tallahassee. This is a fairly new series, with every game between the two coming since 2010.
This game will be at 7 pm on the ACC Network, live from the Donald L Tucker Center in Tallahassee, FL.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (21-8, 14-4) Breakdown
A lot of people are probably surprised by how good Notre Dame has been this season. I said a few times before the season that this could be a good team because I really liked the addition of transfer big Paul Atkinson, and he's been solid all season. What I definitely didn't expect was the emergence of freshman Blake Wesley, a player who wanted to be recruited by FSU, but wasn't for whatever reason, and now he's got a chance to be a lottery pick this offseason as he leads this team in scoring.
As with a lot of Notre Dame teams in the past, they are extremely efficient shooting from deep, shooting 37.3% as a team. They'll now be going up against an FSU team that has been extremely poor at defending the 3, and they're likely licking their chops. They do a great job taking care of the basketball, as Prentiss Hubb is still somehow in South Bend, and also shoot free throws efficiently.
Defensively, they don't really turn teams over or block a lot of shots, but they're one of the best at not fouling. I'll talk about it more in the keys to the game (spoilers, I guess), but if you want to make things competitive against ND, you find ways to get to the FT line. They're also a fantastic defensive rebounding team, something that will be fun to watch against a solid offensive rebounding team in FSU.
As mentioned earlier, Blake Wesley is currently leading the team in scoring at 14.7 PPG, and has scored 15+ in four of his last five games. He's likely going to have something to prove against FSU. He's turned himself into a potential lottery pick, and his ability to create as a bigger guard that has people really excited for his potential. At times, he can settle for too many off-the-dribble 3s, but he can really get going downhill.
Prentiss Hubb isn't being as relied on as he's been in the last few seasons, but he's turned it over a lot less, something he really struggled with last season. Hubb has seen his numbers go down across the board from scoring to assists to efficiency. Wesley has done a great job picking up his slack.
With Hubb not playing as well as you'd expect, Dane Goodwin has really stepped up to the player by shooting 45% on 4.7 3-point attempts per game. He's been lethal from distance, but he's using that threat of him shooting to be able to attack off of the dribble better than he ever has. Goodwin is also a very solid rebounder for his season, though he does spend a lot of his time at the 3 and 4.
Paul Atkinson was one of my favorite players in the transfer portal last offseason, I just thought he had great mobility for a big, and he's been a respectable 12.5 PPG and 7.2 RPG. He had an insane game against Syracuse last week with 20 points and 17 rebounds. Atkinson isn't much of a shot-blocker, definitely more of a threat on the offensive end.
Nate Laszewski is like a less athletic but more idealized version of John Butler. Currently, he's shooting 44.1% from distance and averaging 5.8 boards per game, all while at 6'10" and playing mainly at the 4. This will be a fun matchup to watch if Butler can stay out of foul trouble.
Notre Dame only plays about 7 guys, so the other two to watch will be Cormac Ryan, a solid shooter, and rebounder, and Trey Wertz, who is also a solid shooter (granted, who on this team isn't a solid shooter). Wertz is the only player who plays a lot that hasn't started a game for the Irish this season.
Florida State Seminoles (15-13, 8-10) Breakdown
There were a number of improbable things that happened with Matthew Cleveland's game-winning shot against Virginia. The first being that it was just Cleveland's 6th made 3-pointer of the season. Overall, he is 6/32 (18.8%) from deep on the season. He's been far from perfect on jump shots, but you can tell he's still not afraid to take the shot, which is something that matters.
Secondly, FSU outscored Virginia 10-3 over the final 1:25. 15.6% of their overall points in the game came in the final 3.75% of the game. It's extremely hard to score against Virginia, as we saw all game. But let's take a closer look at every point scored by FSU in that final 1:25.
The bucket by RayQuan Evans is a savvy veteran move, get the drag screen before the defense sets and get downhill. They really should've been doing this more all game when they could've. The rest is all Matthew Cleveland going without thinking, which I think is important. He realizes there's not much time left and that he just has to go. He is able to use his athleticism to get around slower players and drive, while also using his size to finish over players. That is what FSU needs to take away from this game, and especially Cleveland. You're bigger and faster than most people guarding you, use it to your advantage. Don't think, just get to the basket. Getting those baskets gave him the confidence to take that final shot, and you can't tell me otherwise.
Five of the last six, including each of the last four, ACC wins have been by a single point. Their biggest margin of victory in any ACC game was the 9-point win over Louisville. Every other ACC win has been by five points or less. That's a lot of tightly contested games this team will be able to learn from. Now, it will be learning from this and moving past it as quickly as possible, which will be tough to do after the SportsCenter top play, TV interviews, ACC Honors, and Twitter mentions.
FSU needs to win one of these next two games to assure they don't play the first day of the ACC Tournament. They currently sit as 8-10, the next closest teams are all 6-12, though teams like Boston College would own a tiebreaker if it gets to that. The highest they can get is 8th, with Syracuse (9-10) the only team in the vicinity. FSU is pretty much locked into an 8/9 matchup with Syracuse to start their ACC Tournament, a matchup I kind of like for FSU. The only issue would be the winner of that game playing the 1-seed, who will likely be Duke.
How FSU can perform will depend on if FSU can get healthy. Obviously, Naheem McLeod and Malik Osborne are out for the season, but it seems like Caleb Mills and Anthony Polite could return soon, and with the kind of rest they've had, two of your most important players will have fresher legs than the rest of the conference. I'm not giving hope, just providing insight.
To close out the season, FSU gets two games at home, one against a very strong Notre Dame team, and another against a not-so-strong NC State team, one they've already beaten. They'll be hoping to go 1-1 at minimum, but a 2-0 run gives them a lot of momentum heading into the ACC Tournament.
Injury Report
Caleb Mills is questionable with an ankle injury.
Anthony Polite is doubtful with a wrist injury.
Naheem McLeod and Malik Osborne are out for the season.
Robbie Carmody is out for the season with a knee injury.
Elijah Taylor is academically ineligible.
Projected Starters
Florida State
G: RayQuan Evans
G: Matthew Cleveland
G: Wyatt Wilkes
F: John Butler
C: Tanor Ngom
Notre Dame
G: Prentiss Hubb
G: Blake Wesley
G: Dane Goodwin
F: Nate Laszewski
C: Paul Atkinson
Keys to the Game
Forget Virginia
It feels good to win again, sure, just don't get too excited for a finish like that. There are still things they can improve upon and learn from, and it'd be great to carry it over to this game. It's a good test of maturity for a young team to see how they move past an exciting finish like that. If they can come out and perform on all cylinders, maybe they can carry into the ACC Tournament with some momentum.
Get to the Free Throw Line
When Notre Dame is in close games, it's often because they're fouling too much. The goal should be to post a free throw rate of around 27% or more. Every game (besides a 10-point win over Corpus Christi) for Notre Dame where they allowed a free throw rate of 27% or more has been a single-digit win or a loss. FSU is currently posting a season-long free throw rate of 31.2, but ND has been one of the best at keeping teams from getting to the line all season, allowing a FTR of just 23.2.
Defend the 3
Notre Dame is a team full of good shooters. Dane Goodwin and Nate Laszewski are both over 44% from 3, while Cormac Ryan and Trey Wertz are above 37% from 3. This doesn't even count their two best players in Blake Wesley and Prentiss Hubb, who are able to feed the open shooters and create for themselves as well. As a team, they're shooting 37.3%, top-35 nationally. Compare that to FSU who is allowing teams to shoot 36.8% from distance, which is bottom-35 nationally... and there's a chance it could get ugly if FSU doesn't dial in defensively and be sharp on their rotations.
Game Prediction
Notre Dame sits as a 2-point favorite with an over/under of 139.0.
As much as I would like for FSU to keep their undefeated home streak against Notre Dame going, I think it ends here. ND has won 7 of their last 8, with their only loss being on the road against Wake Forest. Granted, the last team you want to play when you need a win is Florida State. I'll still take Notre Dame in a tight one.
ND 71-68
