Game Preview: Florida State Seminoles at Clemson Tigers
The most important game of the 2023 regular season for Florida State has arrived. It's been a busy month, but there's no questioning how much the players, staff, and fans have been looking forward to this one.
READ MORE: Florida State Quarterback To Miss Extended Time Due To Recent Injury
FSU hasn't beaten Clemson since 2014 and hasn't won in Death Valley since the national title winning season in 2013. The last two years have seen some closely fought contests that came up just short. One can only wonder how the games might have gone if not for a questionable Jermaine Johnson celebration penalty in 2021 or if Johnny Wilson hung onto a deep pass in the third quarter in 2022.
Mike Norvell will want to make a statement. This whole team wants to make a statement. They haven't played their best football recently and it has some fans wondering if they've been saving some tricks up their sleeve for this game. At 12pm EST on ABC in Death Valley, we're going to see if FSU can overcome its biggest hurdle to overtaking the ACC: the Clemson Tigers.
Seminole Headlines
Struggles in Chestnut Hill
Late in the 3rd quarter, Florida State led Boston College 31-10. Late in the 4th quarter, they led just 31-29 and Boston College had the ball. There's a lot to be taken away from it, but I was really concerned with the front seven. Joshua Farmer was being pushed around a little bit (and really the whole defensive line struggled to get push), there were running lanes for Boston College Quarterback Thomas Castellanos (though his counter runs were cleaned up a little in the second half), and linebackers were constantly out of position on handoffs and counters.
This team is too talented to have so many mental mistakes like that, but at least they've (hopefully) gotten it out of the way against a bad team, rather than a good one like Clemson, where they can make the mistakes and still pick up the win. How much of it was not wanting to put too much on tape against Clemson, and how much of it was the team being complacent being up three scores late in the 3rd quarter? Only time will tell, but this team has a lot to get cleaned up before traveling up to South Carolina.
Quarterback Injuries
Starting quarterback Jordan Travis hurt his non-throwing shoulder late in the 2nd quarter against Boston College, but was able to finish the rest of the game. He's since said he feels "really good" and Norvell has stated, "I'm not worried what his health will be here moving forward." That's a sigh of relief for Florida State fans, certainly. They will be missing freshman Quarterback Brock Glenn for an extended period of time due to an injury he suffered against Southern Miss, though.
Obviously, the health of Jordan Travis is of the utmost importance to this team, even if he hasn't played particularly well to start this season (more on this later). He's still the best player on a Seminole squad loaded with talent, and he'll need to be on his A-game against a Clemson team that already has its backs against the wall in the ACC.
The Final Hurdle
As mentioned in the opener, Florida State hasn't beaten Clemson since 2014 and hasn't won at Clemson since 2013. They've been so, so close the last few years but haven't gotten over the hump, and the national media has this one circled. Win, and it's "Florida State is officially back on the map and in the driver's seat to win the ACC." Lose, and it's "The lights were too bright for Florida State, and they're never going to be able to reclaim the crown from Clemson if they can't get it done this year."
We've said it on Hear the Spear a few times this offseason, if this isn't the year to beat Clemson, when is it going to be? FSU has to capitalize on this moment and come out ready to fight. Since the Tigers lost their first game against Duke, they can't afford another ACC loss in September if they want a realistic chance at playing for the conference Championship in December, so they'll be playing for their lives, quite literally.
Burning Questions
Can Florida State get off to a hot start defensively?
Let's take a look at Florida State's first defensive drives and first quarters in each game against Power 5 competition to start the season (Southern Miss only had two drives of 8 total plays to start the game). Against LSU, 8 plays, 61 yards, turnover on downs on the goal line. LSU started with a great play design to confuse the linebackers and get a running back completion down the sideline for 55 yards before the defense stood tall in their own end zone. In the first quarter alone they allowed 163 yards. Boston College went for 164 yards in the first quarter that started with a 7-play, 75-yard drive that ate up 4 minutes and ended in a touchdown, before following that up with a 10-play, 72-yard drive that bled 7:37 off of the clock and ended in a field goal.
So in two first quarters against Power 5 opponents, they've allowed 327 total yards of offense. For the last three quarters of the LSU game, they allowed 297 yards. If you want to beat Clemson, it starts on defense, getting off of the field early, setting the tone with physicality, and not having to play through long sustained Will Shipley and Phil Mafah led drives. If Clemson's first possession is nine plays, 75 yards for a touchdown that eats up six minutes, it's going to be a long afternoon for the 'Noles.
I'm expecting a ton of misdirection from Clemson's run game and play action; they watched the same film we saw last Saturday where FSU's linebackers were constantly misidentifying handoffs and counters, filling into the wrong gaps, and missing tackles against Boston College. Shipley and Mafah are much better than the running backs BC has. Force the Tigers into 2nd and 9s and 3rd and 6s; if Cade Klubnik beats you, I think FSU is okay with that, but they can't accept being pushed around like they were for times against BC.
A key to this is Akeem Dent being healthy, which we're not totally sure about yet. Kevin Knowles is too slow and not physical enough to do what FSU needs from their safeties. Getting Dent back would be a huge boost to this defense, as a veteran leader who can get guys set and in the right place from the back end, while still having the speed and football IQ to make plays himself. The linebackers also have to be much, MUCH better than they were last week. Tatum Bethune was good. DJ Lundy had moments. Kalen DeLoach and Omar Graham... left a lot to be desired with their execution.
What is Wrong With Florida State's Run Game?
To put it bluntly, FSU's rushing attack has been subpar to start the season. Against LSU, they averaged four yards per carry, and against Boston College, it fell to 3.8 yards per carry. This running back room is too talented to be held to below 4 yards per carry against any opponent, so what's the issue?
Part of it is teams know what to expect: counter. FSU dominated with counter last season and defenses are overflowing their fills to make sure they have bodies in alleys to stop their counter. You're also down two starting offensive linemen who have a lot of experience running counter, and you can tell there are some hiccups in the blocking assignments. You also have two new tight ends who are learning the intricacies of the way FSU wants to run counter, and while Jaheim Bell has been doing pretty well on this end, Kyle Morlock has not. It may be time to free Markeston Douglas, who at 285 pounds is essentially a sixth offensive lineman, and is FSU's highest-graded player on the season on PFF, despite playing just 29 snaps. He needs 15-20 snaps this game alone, at this point, he's too good to keep off the field and they're not using Morlock enough in the passing game to offset his run-blocking deficiencies.
Lastly, Jordan Travis needs to run the ball more. I'm sure Coach Norvell has wanted to keep Travis healthy, but Boston College wasn't really respecting a potential quarterback pull on these handoffs. On the season, he has 17 total carries, yet most of those feel like scrambles where he's trying to make something out of nothing on a broken pass protection. If Trey Benson and Lawrance Toafili are going to keep running into blockers on counter, put in some wrinkles where most of the offensive line is pulling for counter, but Travis keeps around the edge with a tight end or a guard in front to keep the defenses honest. Or you can even run QB counter like they did late in the LSU game. Travis is at his best when he's in the open field, get him there.
Will Jordan Travis Take What's Given to Him?
I have been extremely disappointed with Jordan Travis' decision-making to start this season. Twice against Boston College, he threw a slot fade to Lawrance Toafili. Twice. This isn't a disrespect to Toafili, but when you have Keon Coleman, Johnny Wilson, Jaheim Bell, Winston Wright, Destyn Hill, Darion Williamson, etc., why is that the read? And why are a lot of these vertical shots coming on 3rd and 4th down when the middle of the field is wide open for slants, drags, and crossers?
Travis HAS to do a much better job of identifying what the defense is giving him and taking it. If it's a throw to the flat to a running back, take it. If it's a slant to Keon Coleman with a vertical route coming from the seam, take it. Too often he's been looking to make the big play, and you can't do that against a team like Clemson who forced three turnovers against FAU. It's a very talented and experienced front seven in orange that will take advantage of any small delays in processing. He has talked about being excited and ready to go for this game, we need to see him be at his best.
Who Will Win the Explosive Plays Battle?
Something has to give. Clemson has had just ten plays this season of 10+ yards and four of 20+ yards, while Florida State's defense has allowed 16 plays of 10+ yards and 11 plays of 20+ yards. Compare that to Florida State's offense with 49 plays of 10+ yards and 19 of 20+ yards, while Clemson's defense is allowing just eight plays of 10+ yards and 3 plays of 20+ yards (and zero of more than 50 yards), and you've got two totally different teams that win in totally different ways.
Part of this has to do with Jordan Travis wanting to push the ball downfield, but as mentioned above, he's going to have to take what's given to him. Those chances for explosive plays may not be there, or maybe Clemson's competition is boosting those numbers and we'll see them make some mistakes. Clemson brought in TCU offensive coordinator Garrett Riley to help in this aspect, but it's been pretty standard Clemson football thus far, at least in my opinion
Game Forecast
Florida State currently sits as favorites by 2.5 points, and a point spread of 55.5.
This is a battle of ideals. Clemson and Dabo Swinney have stayed true to what they believe in; recruit, develop, and prosper. His personal agenda to almost completely forgo the transfer portal clashes so fascinatingly with Mike Norvell and Florida State, who have 22 players on the two deep depth chart that started their careers away from Tallahassee. Florida State wants to dominate on offense by spreading the ball out and do enough on defense to get by, while Clemson wants to thwart you with their front seven and run the ball efficiently with Shipley and Mafah.
I've had a weird feeling that FSU really handles business in this game. They were so disappointed to not come away with a win last year, and I feel like you can tell they've been playing very vanilla football in the last two games. They've got some plays in the bag ready to go. These guys will be playing with a fire underneath them, ready to pounce, and as negative as I've been in this article so far, it's because I expect so much from this team in this game.
I'm picking the 'Noles in a big one, I just don't think Clemson has enough talent on the outside to get it done if FSU mans up on the outside, loads the box up, and maintains discipline.
Florida State 37, Clemson 20
READ MORE: Florida State's Victory Against Boston College Was One Of Most Watched Games In Week 3
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