Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings are of the most followed by college football fans and football geeks alike. He’s updated his fall projections now that we’re heading into the summer. If things hold true, FSU should have a winning season in 2022.
Bill’s SP+ system is based on returning production, recruiting, and recent history. None of those three have been kind to Florida State recently, but through the transfer portal and landing key pieces along with the offensive line things are going to turn for the better for the Seminoles.
The first look at the updated SP+ has an interesting take on FSU as they come in 28th overall with an offensive rating of 45th. The interesting part is the belief that the defense could be very good in 2022 as they come in at 15th. Only Clemson and N.C. State are higher in the ACC on defense.
There are a few unbalanced teams FSU faces in 2022. Clemson comes in 39th offensively, while Wake Forest comes in 9th offensively but 97th on defense. The Wolfpack, despite Devin Leary returning, are 42nd offensively.
While the SP+ isn’t a projection of how an AP poll would look, FSU’s chances at a 7-8 win season look reasonable when looking at Bill’s metrics.
Meanwhile, in the state of Florida, the Seminoles are last behind Miami and Florida in overall team rankings. Miami sits at No. 14 while the Gators are at the No. 23 spot and the 'Noles are placed at the No. 28 spot, dropping four spots in the previous rankings.
If FSU can add a few more pieces on the offensive line and at linebacker we could see a slight increase in their projections the next time they are updated.
Click here to see the full rankings here.