Updated SP+ Rankings: Where Does Georgia Tech Land In The Post-Spring SP+ Rankings?
Georgia Tech Football is one of the least talked about teams going into the 2024 season and I think that is a mistake. They are set to have one of the best offenses in the ACC (maybe the country?) and they are hoping that an overhaul on the defensive side of the football will help propel them into being an ACC contender, despite having one of the most brutal schedules in the entire country. The latest SP+ Rankings from ESPN's Bill Connelly show that Georgia Tech is projected to have one of the top offenses, but the projected defensive ranking is holding the Yellow Jackets back.
Connelly released his updated SP+ rankings today and Georgia Tech landed at No. 63, with the projected No. 35 offense and projected No. 99 defense, as well the No. 68 special teams unit.
So what exactly is SP+ and what goes into making these rankings? Here is how Connelly formulates his rankings in his own words:
"I base SP+ projections on three primary factors, weighted by their predictiveness:
1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition. The combination of last year's SP+ ratings and adjustments based on returning production make up about half of the projections formula
2. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team's potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by the past few years of recruiting rankings in diminishing order (meaning the most recent class carries the most weight). Beginning this season, I am also incorporating transfers -- both the quality and the volume -- in a different way. After last season's transfer-heavy recruiting shift, I've got a bit more data for how to handle that. This piece makes up about one-third of the projections formula.
3. Recent history. Using a sliver of information from previous seasons (two to four years ago) gives us a good measure of overall program health. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good for years on end (and vice versa), right? This is a minor piece of the puzzle -- only about 15% -- but the projections are better with it than without.
A reminder on SP+: It's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren't intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date."
Here is how the ACC teams are ranked according to SP+:
1. Florida State (No. 12 nationally)
2. Clemson (14)
3. Miami (19)
4. SMU (23)
5. Louisville (28)
6. NC State (29)
7. Virginia Tech (32)
8. Duke (47)
9. North Carolina (50)
10. Cal (52)
11. Georgia Tech (63)
12. Syracuse (64)
13. Boston College (75)
14. Virginia (77)
15. Wake Forest (78)
16. Pitt (81)
17. Stanford (84)
You might notice that according to these rankings, Georgia Tech only faces one ACC team projected worse than they are and that is Syracuse at No. 64. While no win is guaranteed, Georgia Tech does not get the benefit of facing many teams ranked lower than they are in SP+.
he two biggest concerns standing in Georgia Tech's way this season will be the improvement of the defense and the schedule.
Georgia Tech had one of the nations worst defenses in 2023, but they have been working to make improvements to that this offseason. Brent Key overhauled the defensive staff this offseason bringing in former Duke defensive coordinator Tyler Santucci to lead the defense along with Jess Simpson (defensive line), Kyle Pope (outside linebackers/edge), and Cory Peoples (defensive backs). They were active in the transfer portal in both the spring and winter windows, bringing players at every level of the defense. How much can they improve? That question could determine the outcome of the season.
The schedule is always daunting and that is no different in 2024. The Yellow Jackets face 11 teams who made bowl games last season and among those teams are rival Georgia and Notre Dame. While those won't count toward the conference record, they are still going to be very difficult. They open with defending champion Florida State in Ireland and also face NC State, Louisville, Miami, and Virginia Tech. It is one of the nations toughest schedules and it will be a challenge for them each week.
Another thing that they will have to fix is the turnovers on offense. As good of a season as Haynes King had last year, he also led the ACC in interceptions and several of them proved to be costly. If he can cut those down, this offense could see another step forward.
If all of this has not convinced you yet, take it from one of the leading voices in the sport, Josh Pate. On a recent episode of the Late Kick, Pate called the Yellow Jackets one of the nation's most underrated teams going into the year:
"Georgia Tech I could also call a little bit underrated. The difference with Georgia Tech is the schedule is pretty stiff, I am not going to lie and they have Georgia every year. They were 7-5 last year and their win total is at 5.5, I think due in large part to how tough it is. Haynes King is still there, that is their quarterback, their offense is top ten in returning production this year, a deep wide receiver room. The defense was bad last year, 123rd in yards allowed last year I believe, but they overhauled their defensive staff, they overhauled their roster on the defensive side. They are the inverse of Nebraska in the sense that if I get C+ or B- defensive play, that should be good to get over 5.5 wins"
It will be interesting to see how Georgia Tech fares in SP+ this year. For now, they will begin the season at No. 63.
JACKSON CAUDELL
Jackson Caudell covers Georgia Tech Athletics and the Atlanta Hawks for FanNation