3 Bold Predictions for Iowa State Basketball Against Texas Tech

The Iowa State Cyclones are looking to exact some revenge on the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 tournament.

Iowa State Cyclones men's basketball head coach T.J. Otzelberger greets Texas Tech Red Raiders men's basketball head coach Grant McCasland before the game in the Big-12 conference men’s basketball showdown on Feb. 28, 2026, at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa. | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Iowa State Cyclones got the 2026 Phillips 66 Big 12 Men’s Basketball Tournament off on a high note, destroying the Arizona State Sun Devils.

Iowa State ended the Bob Hurley era for Arizona State with a 91-42 victory, setting several records in the process. With the victory, the Cyclones have advanced to the quarterfinals, set to face off against the Texas Tech Red Raiders.

This is a rematch from less than two weeks ago, when Texas Tech went into Hilton Coliseum and handed Iowa State its first and only home loss of the season in an 82-73 game.

The Cyclones will be looking to exact some revenge on the Red Raiders. What will it take to get their second win in the Big 12 tournament? Here are some bold predictions for the game.

Iowa State Turns Up Defensive Pressure

Iowa State Cyclones forward Joshua Jefferson (5) and guard Tyeree Bryan (1) put high pressure on Texas Tech Red Raiders guard Christian Anderson (4) during the second half in the Big-12 conference men’s basketball showdown on Feb. 28, 2026, at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa. | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

In the first meeting of the season, Texas Tech got whatever it wanted offensively. They got off to an incredibly hot start in their first road game without star forward JT Toppin, riding that momentum throughout 40 minutes of action.

The Red Raiders shot 31-of-53 overall and were on fire from long range, shooting 14-of-29. This time around, the Cyclones will be able to carry over the defensive performance they had against the Sun Devils.

They held Arizona State to 15-of-47 from the field and 1-of-19 from 3-point range. Texas Tech will be a little better than that, but not as efficient as the first matchup, being held under 45% overall and 35% from 3-point range.

Killyan Toure Bounce Back

Feb 28, 2026; Ames, Iowa, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders forward Lejuan Watts (3) defends Iowa State Cyclones guard Killyan Toure (27) during the first half at James H. Hilton Coliseum. | Reese Strickland-Imagn Images

In the first game against the Red Raiders, Killyan Toure struggled mightily on the offensive end. He showed some confidence, willing to let it fly from long range with Texas Tech daring him to shoot, but he couldn’t take advantage.

Toure was 0-for-7 from the field, missing all four of his 3-point attempts in only 18 minutes of action. He ended a five-game streak of not making a 3-pointer against the Sun Devils and will build upon that.

The freshman guard will make two 3-pointers in the game, once again being dared to shoot by the Red Raiders but connecting a few times this time around.

Cyclones Assert Interior Dominance

Iowa State Cyclones forward Blake Buchanan (23) dunks the ball around Texas Tech Red Raiders forward Luke Bamgboye (9) during the second half in the Big-12 conference men’s basketball showdown on Feb. 28, 2026, at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa. | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The strength of Texas Tech is their guard play; Christian Anderson, Donovan Atwell and Jaylen Petty are a dynamic trio. Not only did they play well in the first meeting, but the Red Raiders controlled the interior as well despite not having Toppin.

Luke Bambgoye scored 13 points. The Red Raiders grabbed 35 rebounds compared to 29 for Iowa State. Petty and Josiah Moseley led the way with nine apiece.

This time around, the Cyclones will assert their dominance on the interior. Blake Buchana was excellent against Arizona State, and Joshua Jefferson got on track as well.

Those two, combined with Dominykas Pleta, will help set the tone for Iowa State and outrebound Texas Tech by at least eight.

Iowa State Exacts Revenge

Iowa State Cyclones forward Milan Momcilovic (22) takes a three-point shot over Texas Tech Red Raiders guard Donovan Atwell (12) during the first half in the Big-12 conference men’s basketball showdown on Feb. 28, 2026, at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa. | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Red Raiders have the rest advantage over the Cyclones after Iowa State had to play in the second round. That will benefit them, as they will come out on fire and improve in areas of weakness from the earlier matchup.

Able to control tempo and pace, the Cyclones will keep their hopes for a No. 2 seed in the NCAA tournament alive, picking up a huge victory over Texas Tech. It won’t be easy, but they will win by seven, 79-72.