Iowa State Cyclones Suffer Unwarranted Change in NCAA Bracketology Predictions

The Iowa State Cyclones look to be overlooked in recent 2026 NCAA Tournament bracketology predictions.

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The biggest storyline surrounding the Iowa State Cyclones men’s basketball team right now is the health of point guard Tamin Lipsey. He suffered a knee injury while going up for a rebound in practice a few weeks ago and is still recovering.

Updates provided at media day last week were all positive. The senior is hitting all the goals that were set forth for him, and head coach T.J. Otzelberger likes the direction things are heading in.

Lipsey did share that it is difficult being on the sidelines and not participating with his teammates in the regular season ramp-up. But, he does believe that he will be able to get on the court for opening night on Nov. 3 against Fairleigh Dickinson.

Alas, there has to be other skepticism surrounding the Cyclones just a few weeks away from the regular season tip-off. In a surprising turn of events, the team's 2026 NCAA Tournament predictions from bracketology expert Joe Lunardi of ESPN have worsened.

Where is Iowa State in most recent bracketology update?

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In the previous edition of bracketology a few weeks ago, Iowa State landed a 3-seed in the East Region. The Lipsey injury was already reported, so that should have been taken into account at the time.

Despite positive updates on his status, the Cyclones have suffered a multi-seed line drop. In his latest update, Iowa State is now a 5-seed in the West Region, with the regional final set to be hosted in San Jose.

Their first-round game would be held in Tampa, Florida. Right now, they are lined up with the Liberty Flames, the projected automatic qualifier from Conference USA. Also in their pod is the Illinois Fighting Illini, an at-large team, and the High Point Panthers, the automatic qualifier from the Big South.

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— Iowa State Men’s Basketball (@CycloneMBB) October 10, 2025

Dropping two seed lines is certainly a surprise. But several other Big 12 teams took a tumble as well. The BYU Cougars fell to a No. 3 seed, and the Cincinnati Bearcats dropped to a 9-seed. Another Big 12 powerhouse, the Arizona Wildcats, dropped to a four seed.

The Kansas Jayhawks did make a move up to a 5-seed. The Texas Tech Red Raiders and Baylor Bears saw improvements as well, landing on the 4 and 8 seed lines.

Reigning atop the entire field is still the Houston Cougars, who are the No. 1 overall seed. With eight teams in the field in total, the Big 12 has the third most of any conference. Only the Big Ten and SEC, which are tied with 11, have more.