Iowa State Cyclones Currently Have 45 Percent Chance to Make CFP

Should the Iowa State Cyclones like their chances of making the CFP currently?

Iowa State Cyclones head coach Matt Campbell high-five fans as enter the field with the team before the game against Iowa in the Cy-Hawk football at Jack Trice Stadium on Sept. 6, 2025, in Ames, Iowa | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Through Week 3 of the College Football season, the Iowa State Cyclones are 4-0 with a Week 0 win in Ireland on their resume. This week, the team will be on a much-needed bye to get healthy and some rest before a big stretch comes up. 

With the Cyclones standing at 4-0 through the first quarter of the year, the program must be very happy with how things are going. Despite the Week 3 victory against the Arkansas State Red Wolves not being as convincing as some would have liked, the team escaped with the win. 

Now, getting some rest will be key for a team that has had some challenges on the schedule in the first few weeks. Coming up after the bye week will be a showdown with the Arizona Wildcats, who are playing some good football. 

Due to the hot start and the success that the team had in 2024, Iowa State is going to be thinking about winning the Big 12 and securing their spot in the College Football Playoff. In The Athletic's projection model, the Cyclones have a 45 percent chance of making the CFP currently after Week 3. 

Can Iowa State Make the CFP?

Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

As things currently stand, the Big 12 is looking like a one-team conference when it comes to sending teams to the CFP. Coming into the year, the conference didn’t garner much respect compared to the SEC, Big 10, and ACC, and not much has changed as of now in that regard. 

For the Cyclones to make the CFP, they are likely going to have to win the conference. That is certainly a possibility based on the fact that they are 4-0 currently with a conference win already against the Wildcats. 

However, that does leave little margin for error, even if they are indeed the most talented team in the conference. As it currently stands, Iowa State isn’t going to be facing another Top 25 team for the rest of the year. While that bodes well for them to potentially run the table, it also doesn’t help their potential resume for an at-large bid. 

With the best chance the team has to make the CFP being to win the Big 12, that is going to have to be the top priority for the program going forward. Conference play will be heating up shortly for the Cyclones, and they are going to need to be as close to perfect as possible to make the CFP.