Iowa State Cyclones Have Slim Chance of Making CFP Following Loss

Can the Iowa State Cyclones make the CFP following their first loss?

Nov 9, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Iowa State Cyclones helmets on the bench during the first quarter against the Kansas Jayhawks at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. | William Purnell-Imagn Images

The Iowa State Cyclones were unable to keep their perfect season alive in Week 6 against the Cincinnati Bearcats. As a slight underdog in the matchup, the team knew that they could have suffered their first loss, and that is precisely what happened. 

Even though it was their first loss of the year and the team was ranked in the Top 15, the defeat has sent them nearly out of the Top 25. While the Bearcats aren’t a bad team and could end up making some noise in the Big 12, this loss as of now really hurts the Cyclones’ chances of playing postseason football. 

Austin Mock of The Athletic (subscription required) recently wrote about the chances that Iowa State has to make the CFP following their loss to the Bearcats. Despite having some decent chances coming into the week, the loss has resulted in them currently having just a five percent chance. 

Cyclones Extremely Unlikely to Make CFP

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Seeing the team listed with just a four percent chance of making the CFP after the loss is certainly disheartening, but there is still a lot of football to be played. So far, the Big 12 hasn’t received a ton of respect nationally yet, but multiple teams are starting to creep into the Top 25, and the Texas Tech Red Raiders have pushed into the Top 10. 

While Week 7 should be an easier game for the team against the Colorado Buffaloes, the Cyclones will then start their hardest stretch of their schedule. Iowa State will have back-to-back games against the BYU Cougars and the Arizona State Sun Devils. Both of these teams are in the Top 25 and could potentially present them with a chance for some signature wins. 

Fortunately, both of those games will be at home coming off the bye week, so the Cyclones should be well prepared in those matchups. With six regular-season games to go, Iowa State should still feel good about what they have accomplished so far this year. 

The Cyclones should be favored in multiple games going forward and even though their chances are low right now, that can change quickly with some wins. However, they are going to need to improve on the defensive side of the ball in order to accomplish that. It wasn’t a good showing in Week 6 and the unit will need to be better in order to make a postseason run.