Could Opt Outs Become a Trend in LSU, College Football or is 2020 the Outlier?

The SEC and the rest of the college football landscape should be on notice. It’s not just COVID-19 causing college football players to sit out this season, or during future seasons, and declare for the NFL draft.

We all possess the same disdain for COVID-19. It’s helped to ruin our daily lives in many ways. It did not, however, single handedly cause several players to opt out for the NFL during recent weeks and months, causing college football fans to have daily meltdowns (see Twitter for numerous examples).

There are several other factors involved. Money is at the forefront.

Money Matters: Time to Help the Family

Until you actually see just how financially strapped some of the top players truly are growing up, it’s hard to place things into perspective. I’ve literally watched a high school head football coach go collect local food donations, while practice was going on mind you, to help make sure his high school football players ate that night.

Not two or three players needing food. Rather, just the opposite. For a 6A football team (60-70 players), I was told that only two players on the entire roster were middle class. Dead serious. Two players were middle class. The rest were financially underprivileged.

That’s alarming and is the case with many communities in America. I’ve been to more of those communities than I care to share. No wonder players are looking to the NFL to help themselves and their loved ones.

Players want a way to help their families make it to a better life, and rightfully so. That’s where college football comes in for many young men from underprivileged families. Even playing within the NFL for three, perhaps four seasons could change the trajectory of a family for a couple of generations.

Which Players Might Opt Out and Why?

Again, it’s money. That’s the primary reason. No reason to overthink the situation. Risk of injury is also a major factor. These are not novel concepts. It’s straightforward and there’s no doubting both are here to stay. That’s why star college football players might opt out. Here’s a good example.

For a college player who becomes a superstar like Leonard Fournette did for LSU, it’s sometimes obvious he does not need to play three years of college football.

Regardless, the NFL requires a player to be three years removed from high school before declaring for the NFL draft. Yes, Fournette was a rare exception, but he was ready for the NFL after his sophomore campaign.

Would Fournette have played his junior year at LSU if he was a junior in 2020? It’s debatable. What about Fournette or any other true superstar with millions waiting in the NFL say five years from now? Ten years?

Time and Place

Every player’s situation proves to be different. How the depth chart lines up, the offensive or defensive scheme that a player plays within, the strength program and so many other factors as well. When a player does reach that stardom level, however, sometimes it's just obvious.

A Julio Jones from Alabama could have certainly been a first round pick after his sophomore year, had he actually been eligible. Additionally, if he sat out his junior season for Alabama, there’s no reason to believe he would not become a first round pick either. That brings us to LSU and the recent opt outs.

Why Now?

With NFL agents in their ears with legitimate concerns about COVID-19 and a bunch of money on the table next spring, perhaps it was easier than many of us know for Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Shelvin to not suit up for the purple and gold this fall. Then again, maybe it was really difficult and reasons unbeknownst to any of us influenced their situations.

Regardless, it’s heartbreaking for LSU fans, but again, it’s up to the players to make those decisions about their futures. Both players will be sorely missed on the gridiron this fall in Baton Rouge. Great players, both of them.

Would it have been better for one or both of Chase and Shelvin to decide prior to fall camp? That’s a debate for another day.

What’s Next?

There’s a trend that’s starting. It’s not going away. Superstar players are eventually going to opt out of their junior seasons. Well, at least some of those superstars will. It’s a player by player situation.

That next Chase, that next Joe Brady (okay, something close -- we are not likely to see that performance again), or any other player that is truly ready for the NFL after his sophomore year in a college uniform.

Who’s it going to be? It’s a matter of time. Somebody will do it; then another. Players are going to sit out their last college season and go prepare for the NFL draft. They want the money and to mitigate the risk of losing that money. Football is a violent sport. Players get injured. That’s why it’s only a matter of time. Another prime reason stems from agents.

Remember those agents? Oh yes, they have runners on college campuses across the country. It’s probably happening already, but those same runners could offer some money now if players sit out and sign with the agent they work for, albeit privately.

Players sometimes listen. Perhaps some will be bad decisions. Afterall, there are only so many players like Bo Jackson, Reggie White or Jadaveon Clowney born on this earth. Still, some will listen and opt out.

Accept the Inevitable; Be Prepared

Yes, what we are seeing with opting out will continue, but for different reasons than what many college players are at least saying during the pandemic. Players opting out of their final year of college football will be a major blow to college sports, but it’s just another hurdle college football programs like LSU must navigate to win a national championship.

Look no further than Derek Stingley Jr., the sophomore cornerback who is already considered one of the top defensive players in the country. If he makes a run at the Jim Thorpe award and is named an All-American for a second straight season, what’s keeping him from opting out in 2021?

Those programs that accept and prepare for these types of future situations will be the teams that consistently make a run at the college football playoffs. Teams that have no backup plans will look foolish and suffer.

LSU was hit hard this year and it’s hard to replace so much talent. That does not mean that LSU coach Ed Orgeron will not adapt during future seasons. That man loves LSU and he will do what he can to prepare his team for even the worst roster attrition, opt outs or otherwise.

So, here we are at the beginning of the opt out era. It’s just beginning. Buckle up. It’s going to be a long ride.