This Is Why The Miami Hurricanes Are Favored Against North Carolina
Miami Hurricanes fans cannot unsee what they witnessed in that ugly, inexcusable, 45-31 loss at home to Middle Tennessee. Meanwhile, North Carolina is off to a 4-1 start and their offense is humming.
Throughout the week, I've witnessed the reactions of Hurricanes fans who casually follow betting lines. When they find out Miami is favored by a field goal against Carolina, they all say the same thing: "Why?"
I'm a casual sports bettor with a decent understanding of the lines, but I'm a novice, not an expert. Rather than explaining it myself, I contacted someone who bets on games for a living.
I asked Lee Sterling, host of Locked On Bets, to explain to us in the simplest of terms why Miami is a betting favorite against a North Carolina team that's off to a much better start than our Canes.
"The goal of a lines-maker is to get half the money bet on one side, and half on the other side. They opened the line at 3.5 to 4 (in favor of Miami) and it's been bet down to Miami at just a 3-point favorite. So, money has been coming in on Carolina, as we expected at that line."
Is he saying the wrong team is favored? No, not exactly.
"I think it's gonna stabilize and stay here (at Miami -3)," he said. "Miami is playing at home. North Carolina is one of the worst road underdogs during the Mack Brown era."
Lee told me that strictly based on the talent and the recent results, he'd view this as a "pick'em game." He feels Miami's brand and reputation can definitely influence the lines.
"Miami has a history. People bet the Hurricanes like they bet Notre Dame, the Steelers, the Cowboys, and teams they're familiar with."
Lee will not be giving this game out as a play for his clients at Paramount Sports because he doesn't feel there's a strong play in either direction. However, he leans to Miami to win the game as long as they can follow a certain blueprint:
"I went back and I studied the Notre Dame game. That was the one team that really dominated North Carolina. How did they do it? They ran the football. Power spread. Similar quarterback to Miami but maybe not as talented. They ran the ball all over North Carolina. North Carolina's defense is horrible."
The Fighting Irish ran for 287 team yards against Carolina en route to a 45-32 win. Lee thinks Miami has the muscle up front and the caliber of running backs to do similar damage. A run-heavy attack can take precious time off the clock, too.
Miami's defense will have to contain UNC quarterback Drake Maye, though.
"He's not only a real good passer but he's an underrated runner. What I found Notre Dame had success with - their best rushing tactic - was not trying to go all out into just getting a sack. They did a lot of twisting and their most successful rushes were when they slanted their defensive tackles out and then their defensive ends looped inside. It confused Maye and he likes to go between the guard and tackle to run the ball when he has a gap."
In Lee's eyes, Miami's defensive depth might just be good enough to keep Maye off balance.
"I think Miami can have some success on defense because they can go eight or nine deep on the defensive front."
He gave me a final score prediction in Miami's favor and I promise, I did not twist his arm for it!
"I think Miami is probably going to win this game something like 30-24 or 34-27. I would lay the three points if I had to choose a side."
The Miami Hurricanes host the North Carolina Tar Heels at 4:00PM on Saturday, October 8th, 2022 from Hard Rock Stadium.
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