The Question That Could Determine Harbaugh's Future
Michigan Athletics Director Warde Manuel can only control what he can control.
For example, he can't control getting a call from John Beilein one day telling him, "I'm off to the Cleveland Cavaliers." Nor can he control getting a similar call one day from Jim Harbaugh. Although Michigan's football coach was adamant he loves it here and doesn't plan on going anywhere, after rumors to the contrary surfaced from one noted coaching carousel website.
Still, no coach should be given an unconditional lifetime golden ticket unless their name ends in Saban. And while there is no question Harbaugh has done a fine job rebuilding the program, no Big Ten titles after five years has some wondering if Harbaugh doesn't finally beat Ohio State maybe Michigan should consider moving on. After all, no current power five head coach that didn't win a conference title by his fifth season has actually won one. Dabo Swinney is the closest, but he won his first conference title in year four. Next year would be year six for Harbaugh.
But after wondering about that myself, I then put myself in Manuel's shoes. What would I be looking at if I were him? If I were Manuel it would come down to the following question:
In the next three years, who has a better shot to win a Big Ten championship? A new coach, who could very well need that amount of time to fully install his program? Or Harbaugh, given where he has the program right now?
Harbaugh has never won a conference title as a major college football coach, so there's certainly no guarantee he ever will. On the other hand, new coaching hires always come with at least some inherent risk, as we've sadly learned around here before Harbaugh arrived. Any name we throw out there, and I'll refrain from throwing any specific names of guys still coaching their teams, is going to have some hole in their resume that gives us cause for pause.
There's probably only one candidate out there whose college resume is clearly superior to Harbaugh's, and that's Bob Stoops. However, there's no guarantee he even wants to coach again. Yes, he's in the XFL now, but that's a part-time gig that doesn't require nearly the commitment coaching at a Michigan does.
So is there a way to truly answer this question? Yes, but it requires another question:
Can Harbaugh continue recruiting at his current pace without winning a Big Ten title in the next two years?
Michigan currently has 39 4-and-5-star prospects on its rosters according to the 247 Composite, which ranks just behind defending national champion Clemson. In other words, that's a roster that can and should be winning a Big Ten championship.
If Manuel thinks Harbaugh can continue acquiring talent at that pace without regression from the "he never wins anything" negative recruiting narrative, or more rumors like Harbaugh confronted this week, then by all means he should stay the course believing eventually a roster that talented will break through.
Because a coaching hire is likely going to dent the current recruiting class in any year you have one, not to mention what current players may do in this transfer portal era. This is the first full year of coaching hirings and firings we'll have with the portal out there, so we have no precedent for how a roster can be depleted with such drastic change. It could be worse or typical of what we see, we just don't know. But that's a big variable, because a depleted roster is the difference between a new coach winning enough to win over fans/donors/alumni in year one or not.
Therefore, if you believe Harbaugh can continue to recruit like this, or until evidence of recruiting slippage actually presents itself, the less risky option by far for Manuel is to ride out. Or, to put a spin on a certain phrase popular in these parts, "those who recruit like this will eventually be champions."
