Reading the tea leaves, here's the odds we'd place on who's back next year, who's not, and who still might come into the Michigan football fold.
Nico Collins: 75% odds he returns for his senior season. He loves it at Michigan, and I think he sees the potential of being the one true downfield outside receiver on a team that will be loaded with speed guys inside to stress a defense. That will leave him often in man coverage.
Donovan Peoples-Jones: 50-50 are the odds he stays/goes for his senior year. If he shows out in the Citrus Bowl and demonstrates he's fully healthy, the odds he goes substantially increase.
Ambry Thomas: 95% odds he returns for his senior season. Should be preseason All-Big Ten, at worst, heading into next fall.
Cesar Ruiz: 80% odds he returns for his senior season. He'd be a third day draft pick now, but could potentially be the top center taken in the 2021 draft with a strong 2020.
Darion Green-Warren: 99.9% odds the consensus 4-star cornerback from California commits to Michigan at the U.S. Army All-American Game on January 4th. Think Quinten Johnson in the 2019 class for his recruiting endgame.
Unnamed defensive tackle via transfer portal: 90% odds Michigan adds at least one big body here to bolster its defensive tackle ranks.
Unnamed offensive tackle via transfer portal: 60% odds Michigan adds an offensive tackle to help bridge the gap for some of the young guys still developing. Michigan seems to be intent on doing so Thus, the only reason the odds aren't higher is whether somebody worthy of playing here would be willing to come in with both starting tackle spots likely spoken for next season (see Jalen Mayfield and Ryan Hayes).
Unnamed quarterback via transfer portal: I think the odds are lower than is being speculated. Let's say 25%, because those are about the chances the Wolverines can find someone worthy of a scholarship, who wouldn't mind being the third string quarterback next season. Unless you want to lose Dylan McCaffrey, or for all their Signing Day hype the coaches now believe Joe Milton was a miss. I also think if both of those guys didn't look capable of being the starter, the odds would be lower for either Collins or DPJ to return.