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Coaching and development are keys to success in college football. Which is why before I begin assembling my perennial forecast of the upcoming season, I assess how good are the head coaches who will have a huge say in determining how the season goes. 

Here's how my annual college football coach power ratings are compiled:

Ranking all the power five (and Notre Dame) college football coaches from first-to-worst, using the following criteria:

  • Power Five Head Coaching Overall Resume (1-10): Assessing what each head coach has done strictly as a power five head coach on a scale of 1-10.
  • Non-Power Five Head Coaching Overall Resume (1-5): Assessing what each head coach as done as either a group of five head coach, power-five top assistant coach, or NFL head/assistant coach on a scale of 1-5.
  • Current Coaching Trajectory (1-10): Assessing whether the needle for the next four years (a full recruiting cycle) is pointed up or down at this stage of each coach's career on a scale of 1-10.
  • Big Game Bonus (1-3): Coaches known for producing in big games as a head coach at the Power Five level are given a bonus of 1-3 points.
  • Hall of Fame Bonus (3 points): Coaches that are obviously destined for the College Football of Fame (for college coaching only), based on their accomplishments up until this point, were given 3 bonus points.

A total of 31 points is possible. Ties were broken first by higher score on current coaching trajectory and then by me if that didn't settle it. Coaching ratings factor into how I project each team's season to finish in my final game-by-game predictions for the preview.

  1. Dabo Swinney, Clemson 10 2 10 3 3 28
  2. Nick Saban, Alabama 10 3 8 3 3 27
  3. Jimbo Fisher, Texas A&M 8 4 6 2 3 23
  4. Mack Brown, North Carolina 9 3 6 2 3 23
  5. Brian Kelly, Notre Dame 7 5 6 1 3 22
  6. Lincoln Riley, Oklahoma 6 3 9 2 0 20
  7. Ed Orgeron, LSU 7 3 7 3 0 20
  8. Kyle Whittingham, Utah 7 3 5 2 3 20
  9. Gary Patterson, TCU 7 5 4 1 3 20
  10. Kirby Smart, Georgia 5 4 9 1 0 19
  11. Dan Mullen, Florida 7 3 8 1 0 19
  12. Kirk Ferentz, Iowa 8 2 4 2 3 19
  13. Jim Harbaugh, Michigan 7 5 6 0 0 18
  14. David Shaw, Stanford 7 2 5 1 3 18
  15. Mike Leach, Mississippi State 7 4 3 1 3 18
  16. Les Miles, Kansas 8 3 2 2 3 18
  17. James Franklin, Penn State 7 2 7 1 0 17
  18. Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern 7 2 6 2 0 17
  19. Paul Chryst, Wisconsin 6 3 6 2 0 17
  20. Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State 7 2 5 0 3 17
  21. Ryan Day, Ohio State 3 3 9 1 0 16
  22. P.J. Fleck, Minnesota 4 5 6 1 0 16
  23. Matt Campbell, Iowa State 4 3 8 1 0 16
  24. Gus Malzahn, Auburn 5 4 5 2 0 16
  25. Mario Cristobal, Oregon 4 3 7 1 0 15
  26. Tom Herman, Texas 3 5 6 1 0 15
  27. Herm Edwards, Arizona State 4 4 6 1 0 15
  28. Chip Kelly, UCLA 6 4 4 1 0 15
  29. Mark Stoops, Kentucky 6 2 5 1 0 14
  30. Bronco Mendenhall, Virginia 5 4 5 0 0 14
  31. Jeremy Pruitt, Tennessee 2 4 7 0 0 13
  32. Scott Satterfield, Louisville 3 4 6 0 0 13
  33. Pat Narduzzi, Pittsburgh 4 4 5 0 0 13
  34. Greg Schiano, Rutgers 6 4 3 0 0 13
  35. David Cutcliffe, Duke 7 3 2 1 0 13
  36. Jeff Brohm, Purdue 3 4 5 0 0 12
  37. Justin Wilcox, California 4 3 5 0 0 12
  38. Justin Fuente, Virginia Tech 4 3 5 0 0 12
  39. Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss 4 3 5 0 0 12
  40. Chris Klieman, Kansas State 2 5 5 0 0 12
  41. Scott Frost, Nebraska 1 5 5 0 0 12
  42. Clay Helton, USC 5 2 4 1 0 12
  43. Will Muschamp, South Carolina 4 4 4 0 0 12
  44. Dave Clawson, Wake Forest 5 3 3 1 0 12
  45. Mike Norvell, Florida State 0 4 6 1 0 11
  46. Tom Allen, Indiana 4 2 5 0 0 11
  47. Neal Brown, West Virginia 1 4 5 1 0 11
  48. Matt Wells, Texas Tech 1 4 5 1 0 11
  49. Dino Babers, Syracuse 4 3 3 1 0 11
  50. Karl Dorrell, Colorado 5 3 3 0 0 11
  51. Lovie Smith, Illinois 3 5 2 1 0 11
  52. Manny Diaz, Miami (Fla.) 1 3 6 0 0 10
  53. Dave Aranda, Baylor 0 4 5 1 0 10
  54. Derek Mason, Vanderbilt 4 3 3 0 0 10
  55. Dave Doeren, N.C. State 4 2 4 0 0 10
  56. Eli Drinkwitz, Missouri 0 3 5 1 0 9
  57. Mel Tucker, Michigan State 1 4 4 0 0 9
  58. Geoff Collins, Georgia Tech 1 4 4 0 0 9
  59. Kevin Sumlin, Arizona 4 3 2 0 0 9
  60. Nick Rolovich, Washington State 0 3 5 0 0 8
  61. Jimmy Lake, Washington 0 3 5 0 0 8
  62. Jeff Hafley, Boston College 0 3 5 0 0 8
  63. Mike Locksley, Maryland 0 3 5 0 0 8
  64. Sam Pittman, Arkansas 0 4 4 0 0 8
  65. Jonathan Smith, Oregon State 2 2 3 0 0 7

5 Biggest Risers from last year: Ed Orgeron+27, Scott Satterfield +24, Jeremy Pruitt +21, Ryan Day +20, Mario Cristobal +17

5 Biggest Fallers from last year: Chip Kelly -23, Dave Doeren -19, Scott Frost -15, Will Muschamp -15, Tom Herman -9

New coaches are in italics