3 Reasons Why Joe Milton Will Be Michigan's Starting Quarterback In 2020

Please note this is a cost-benefit analysis. Not a personal preference.

Please note this is a cost-benefit analysis. Not a personal preference. 

I like Dylan McCaffrey, and wanted him to replace Shea Patterson when he was inconsistent and ineffective early in the 2019 season. And I believe he very well might have, if not for (in my opinion) being placed in an impossible and unwinnable situation at Wisconsin. Which resulted in McCaffrey being on the wrong end of one the most vicious (and dirtiest) hits I've ever seen a Michigan quarterback take.

That hit job kept McCaffrey out for several weeks, and was the reason he didn't play another meaningful snap the rest of the way. It also helped set up a situation where unless he's dramatically better than Joe Milton, I believe Milton will be Michigan's starting quarterback in 2020. 

There are three reasons why I believe this. 

Any experience advantage McCaffrey had is now gone. 
In a typical transition situation, a full year of experience learning Jim Harbaugh's at-times complex NFL system would give the older McCaffrey a major edge. But this isn't a typical transition situation, let alone Harbaugh's offense. It's Josh Gattis' offense now, and both McCaffrey and Milton have each had the same amount of time prepping for it. Then there's McCaffrey's aforementioned concussion, which allowed Milton to get plenty of reps as the No. 2 quarterback that otherwise would've gone to McCaffrey. Milton is actually the more physically-developed and imposing prospect, too. True, McCaffrey has seen more game action, but much of that came back in 2018 with an entirely different offense. 

The transfer portal. 
We don't know how close Milton is to getting his degree, but we have recently seen several Michigan players able to graduate in three years. If he doesn't win the job, he could very well do the same and then still have two years of eligibility remaining which could make him a coveted grad transfer. We've already seen Brandon Peters leave to find playing time, and according to Zach Shaw of 247 Sports since the transfer portal debuted in October of 2018 a quarterback has entered it every 57 hours. The likelihood Milton would stick around for another or year or two without being the starter is statistically small given the current trend line in the sport. 

His departure would put Michigan in a difficult position, since behind him is Cade McNamara, whom our Brandon Brown saw in a boot back in November -- so you wonder how his development went during his redshirt year. And then there's true freshman Dan Villari, whom I'm personally rooted for after the way he was publicly dissed as a reach at the end of the early signing period. But even an optimistic view of his potential would acknowledge he needs ample time to develop.  

Of course, the same would be true if McCaffrey chose to leave because Milton won the job, but that leads us to the third and final factor in our cost-benefit analysis. 

McCaffrey's injury history. 
Though he's attempted just 35 passes in his career so far, McCaffrey has suffered serious injuries each of the last two seasons. The concussion in 2019 and then a broken collarbone in 2018. But it's the concussion that has to be considered here, especially given the way his family responded to it last fall. Choosing to have their own doctors back in home in Denver to evaluate him independent of the university. I don't think it's because they doubted the care their son was going to get at Michigan, otherwise he still wouldn't be here. 

Far more likely is this a family of means with a stellar athletic history, so they're more aware about the nature and danger of concussions than the average household. Still, this course of action could possibly preclude a couple of possibilities -- both of which could be simultaneously true. 

One, McCaffrey may have suffered a head trauma playing in high school we're not aware of, and that's why the family wanted the doctors who looked after him back then involved. Two, because this is a family of means, there's no need for McCaffrey to take risks to provide future financial security when many other players and families don't have that luxury. 

Regardless if it's any or none of those things, at the very least if you're Michigan you cannot ignore the math here. This is a player that's already suffered two serious injuries with limited playing time. And given his athleticism is his most proven trait, the way he plays the game probably doesn't prevent him from further injury exposure. 

Conclusion
Given the cost-benefit analysis, it's likely McCaffrey has to be dramatically better than Milton to be the starting quarterback in 2020. As in good enough to be an early entree in the 2021 NFL Draft, which would give you a greater chance of convincing Milton to continue biding his time. 

Otherwise, the overall risks involved means that if the competition is close, the prospect with the cleaner injury history, and perhaps higher ceiling, will win the job. And that player is Milton.