Some Thoughts On First 2020 Top 25 For College Football
Bill Bender of The Sporting News just released his first top 25 for the 2020 college football season, and I have we some thoughts.
Bender is one of the best college football writers out there. He does his homework and isn't a hot take arsonist, or click-bait commando. Thus, I'd put more stock in his version of a "way too early preseason top 25" then most others. However, that doesn't mean I don't have some disagreements.
You can see the full reasoning for Bender's picks here. But for now, let's just list his first attempt at a way-too-early preseason top 25 for the 2020 season:
1. Clemson
2. Ohio State
3. Alabama
4. LSU
5. Georgia
6. Oregon
7. Oklahoma
8. Notre Dame
9. Penn State
10. Florida
11. Auburn
12. Minnesota
13. Texas
14. Wisconsin
15. Michigan
16. Texas A&M
17. Oklahoma State
18. Utah
19. Louisville
20. Cincinnati
21. North Carolina
22. Arizona State
23. Virginia
24. Central Florida
25. Boise State
Now some thoughts, starting at the top.
For the last few years I've done what I call the Total Team Talent Ratings, which are meant to measure the talent potential each power five program and Notre Dame has on its roster. This is different from what analytics like Bill Connelly's at ESPN, who is a must read, does with what he puts out. His primarily measure returning production, which is a far better metric then just counting returning starters in this era of specialization.
However, returning production doesn't tell me how good the talent you have waiting in the wings to replace that lost production might be.
I've used my Team Total Talent Ratings, which I'll unveil for the first time for 2020 after the NFL early entree deadline later this month, to help me compile a pretty good record on preseason win total best bets the past few years (more on that in the spring). But I'm already running my numbers in real time with each day's news of offseason attrition/addition. And based on what I'm currently seeing, here's some things of note:
2020 will actually be Clemson's most overall talented roster in the four seasons I've been doing this, but also its least experienced.
Ohio State, Alabama, and Georgia are going to be neck-and-neck for the most overall talented rosters heading into next season. The Dawgs just got a boost with the addition of Wake Forest transfer quarterback Jamie Newman, who might actually be an upgrade over Jake Fromm given his skill set as it relates to where the college game is at the moment.
Oregon and Oklahoma are going to easily have the most talented rosters in their respective conferences. They just each have new quarterbacks to groom.
Depending on how the NFL entry deadline shakes out, Penn State could have a top five overall most-talented roster when my metric debuts.
Unless they hammer the transfer market this will be the least talented roster Texas has had under Tom Herman, but still top 25 overall.
Wisconsin is getting gutted, and as more of a developmental program the Badgers aren't the type to just re-load on the fly.
According to my numbers, Utah would be the most overrated team listed.
Virginia's ranking is interesting, because it will return a lot except for star quarterback Bryce Perkins, who was the catalyst for Bronco Mendenhall's turnaround the past two seasons and easily the program's best player.
While Michigan will have a top 10 overall most-talented roster in 2020, I think the ranking is fair given it's about where the Wolverines tend to finish.
Finally, there's a team Bill hasn't ranked that could end up with a top 10 overall most-talented roster in the country, depending on incoming transfer eligibility. That's a little tease, and I'll save that one for now.
