In The Fiesta Bowl, Quarterback Play Could Decide The Day
Heading into the college football playoffs, the four remaining teams have an entire season’s worth of tape to draw from.
They can pore over hours of game footage, learning formations, tendencies, and plays down to the smallest idiosyncrasies. And with over a month to prepare, both teams can dive far deeper than they could for a typical game. With this comes a deep understanding of their opponents and how they like to play.
From this analysis, TCU, and head coach Sonny Dykes have come to the same conclusion that Ohio State had — Michigan is a scary team on the ground. And because of this conclusion, quarterback play will be essential come Saturday.
In an interview with Colin Cowherd, Dykes did not mince words.
“(Michigan is) a football team that wants to run it,” Dykes said. “And they really do a nice job at staying patient with the run game. They can push people around. That’s gonna be the big challenge for us, stopping the run and making the quarterback beat us.”
For most of the Wolverines’ season, they dominated on the ground, bending teams to their will over the course of an entire game. They are a run first team, one that gets stronger over the course of a game, as they constantly bully the opposing defensive line.
During the bulk of the campaign, quarterback JJ McCarthy was serviceable, never throwing in high quantities. He was never forced to beat a team with his arm. But he also was accurate, especially earlier in the season, and didn’t make many mistakes.
Dykes and the Horned Frogs have an opportunity other teams weren’t afforded. They have the opportunity to watch how another team in the playoffs attempted the same strategy against Michigan. Ohio State attempted to stack the box and stifle the hobbled Wolverines run game, and ended up giving multiple explosive plays over the top.
When he had to, McCarthy stepped up to the plate and delivered at a level that he hadn’t all season. And in the following game against Purdue, his high level of play was just as dominating.
Yet, TCU still feels that forcing McCarthy to beat them is the right path.Of the two poisons Michigan offers, the Horned Frogs still feel pressuring McCarthy to beat them is their best chance.
Dykes has the benefit of having seen McCarthy do it, and the manner through which the Wolverines beat the Buckeyes in Columbus.
For almost three full quarters, Ohio State did successfully stifle the Michigan run game, with the Wolverines staying in the game from a couple of defensive breakdowns caused by that full investment in the run. But then the dam broke, and running back Donovan Edwards broke free, driving the score far out of reach.
Perhaps Dykes has something special schemed up and prepared.Perhaps he has spotted exploitable pieces of Michigan’s offense, and can render them less efficient than usual. But that seems somewhat unlikely, when no team has been able to stop the run so far, whether it be Blake Corum headlining or Donovan Edwards.
The Horned Frog’s 3-3-5 defensive scheme is far different from the one the Buckeyes employ, and will allow for them to sink more cleanly into coverage than the Buckeyes were. This could help to prevent the explosive plays that Michigan was able to create when Ohio State rolled the dice and stacked the box.
McCarthy adds another aspect to the Wolverines’ offensive attack, and one that wasn’t discussed much throughout the regular season. McCarthy is a great scrambler. Earlier in the season, he was put on a tight leash, but of course in the final games of the season, he’s been given the green light. McCarthy’s legs are yet another wrinkle to Michigan’s run game, and could give the Horned Frogs fits if not properly defended.
On the other side of the ball, quarterback Max Duggan may be even more important to TCU’s national title game hopes than McCarthy is to Michigan’s. Duggan is the lifeblood of the Horned Frogs team, and the conduit through which their extremely efficient offense runs.
Of course, he has had some great help around him — running back Kendre Miller put together an All Big 12 season totalling 1342 yards and 17 touchdowns, and a talented group of wide receivers led by Quentin Johnson were great targets.
But this team would not be in the playoffs without Duggan. The Horned Frogs have won five one-possession games, largely due to late heroics by Duggan and Miller. With this comes an experience that the Wolverines don’t have — if the game is close late, it will be Michigan in unfamiliar territory.
Just look at Duggan’s performance against Kansas State. Despite his exhausted offensive line repeatedly blowing coverages late in the game, he put the team on his shoulders and marched down the field. Duggan ran for 95 yards in a single drive to draw even with the Wildcats, bringing the game to overtime. And he dragged his team to the goal line in that overtime, giving his team every chance to win.
Duggan has the ability to take over a game single handedly. If he can do that, TCU can contend with any team in college football.
Both quarterbacks are being given the opportunity to take over the game. Whatever happens, there will certainly be fireworks in Glendale come Saturday.
