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Questions We're Asking After Michigan's Loss At Penn State
Should the coaches give Dylan McCaffrey or Joe Milton the reins?
I know, I know, I just spent an entire post-game column praising Shea Patterson, so what gives with this question? What gives is the season is effectively over.
Michigan cannot qualify for the Big Ten Championship game. It would have to win out and then see Penn State drop three games (oh, and Ohio State would have to lose another contest in addition to THE Game). Neither scenario is likely.
Without a Big Ten title berth, even with wins over ND, Michigan State and Ohio State, a 10-2 Michigan team is not going to the playoff.
So what is Michigan playing for at this point? Pride. To beat three rivals. And while a 10-2 season would still look cosmetically way better than an 8-4 campaign, the goal is to win championships and Patterson can no longer help the Wolverines do that.
McCaffrey and Milton represent Michigan's next opportunity: in 2020.
I don't think Patterson's career at U-M should be over with, but ask yourself this - if Patterson gets the rest of the snaps at quarterback and the Wolverines win out, has the program really done anything to help itself other than optics?
No. It will enter the offseason with two QBs competing for the job and neither having extensive playing time. That's not the best option for the program's future..
Play Patterson, but play McCaffrey and Milton too. Each of those guys should even get a start so they know how it feels to be the guy coming out of the locker room.
Remember, Michigan doesn't open the 2020 season with some creampuff like Ball State. It begins the year at Washington in what will be a Top 20 showdown. Wouldn't you like the Maize and Blue to have their best chance at winning? To do so, that means giving critical in-game reps to the quarterback that will start the contest on the West Coast next fall. And that quarterback is not Patterson.
Is the Don Brown show a facade?
In Brown's four seasons in Ann Arbor, the Wolverines have ranked No. 2 in total defense (2016), No 3 (2017), No. 2 (2018) and No. 14 (2019), and have ranked No. 2 in scoring defense (2016), No. 13 (2017), No. 16 (2018) and No. 21 (2019). And yet, in 10 of the 13 losses he's been a part of, the defense utterly failed the team for either huge swaths of time or in key moments.
Iowa 2016 - Brown's defense gets a pass. The Wolverines held the Hawkeyes to 14 points, with Iowa's game-winning field-goal drive starting at the U-M 36-yard line.
Ohio State 2016 - Brown's defense does everything it can while the offense is committing three turnovers, including a pick-six, in a 30-27 double-overtime loss in Columbus. U-M could have had a stop behind the line of scrimmage on a 3rd-and-9 (that ultimately set up JT Barrett's 4th-and-1 run), but I won't roast him for that.
Florida State 2016 - Michigan's defense gets absolutely annihilated in the first quarter, giving up 17 points to put U-M in a 17-3 deficit. The defense yields a 28-yard run and a 92-yard touchdown pass, and for good measure gives up the game-winning touchdown drive in the final two minutes. FSU started the drive at the Michigan 36-yard line, but hold them to a field goal and it's a tie headed to OT.
Michigan State 2017 - free pass. The Wolverines held MSU to 14 points in the game and the offense was brutal with three interceptions and two fumbles in a second-half downpour.
Penn State 2017 - U-M's defense surrenders touchdowns on Penn State's first-two offensive series, putting the team in a 14-0 hole. After Michigan makes it 14-13, the defense gives up a 75-play touchdown drive at the end of the half that consumes just 52 seconds, then gives up an 80-yard touchdown drive to PSU on its first series of the second half. 28-13. Game over. (Eventually a 42-13 loss).
Wisconsin 2017 - Hamstrung by a third-string quarterback, Michigan has to be perfect in Madison. The Wolverines take a 10-7 lead in the third quarter The defense immediately allows a 7-play, 77-yard touchdown drive, including third-down completions on 3rd-and-13 and 3rd-and-16, and then follows that drive up by giving up a 61-yard TD drive on UW's ensuing possession. 21-10 just like that.
Ohio State 2017 - Behind John O'Korn, the offense and defense have a magical start, getting out to a 14-0 lead. Defense allows back-to-back touchdown drives as OSU makes it 14-14. In the third, O'Korn leads another TD drive, making it 21-14 and the defense instantly gives up an 11-play, 78-yard touchdown drive, Ohio State converting three third-downs. OSU takes the lead on its very next possession.
South Carolina 2017 - Michigan goes up 19-3 late in the third quarter. South Carolina's next three possessions: touchdown, touchdown, touchdown.
Notre Dame 2018 - Like Penn State in 2017, ND scores back-to-back TDs to open the game, putting U-M in a 14-0 hole. After Michigan gets on the board 14-3, its defense allows a 75-yard touchdown drive, down 21-3.
Ohio State 2018 - 62 points surrendered. But one of this defense's biggest faults is its inability to hold onto momentum after the offense has done something well (either giving the team the lead or clawing back). Michigan makes it 21-19 with just 41 seconds left in the first half. Defense allows OSU to march 71 yards in those 41 seconds and kick a field goal to seize momentum back before the half.
Florida 2018 - Michigan takes a 10-6 second-quarter lead, defense (broken record here) immediately gives up a 75-yard touchdown drive and is down at the half 13-10. In the second half, the wheels come off as the defense allows 21 points.
Wisconsin 2019 - The Badgers score 14 first-quarter points and 14 second-quarter points for a total of 28, the most a Brown defense has ever allowed in the first half of a game. Michigan's offense stunk but those touchdown drives were 75, 72, 80 and 43 yards. That's on the defense.
Penn State 2019 - The Nittany Lions score 21 first-half points but what is most damning is after Michigan makes it 21-14 at the end of the third quarter, the defense immediately allows a six-play, 75-yard touchdown drive, giving all the momentum (and another TD U-M can't overcome) back to Penn State.
That's a lot of detail and maybe you didn't stick with it, but here's the overall theme - the defense has consistently squandered any positive momentum the offense has generated or has put the team in gigantic deficits right from the start of the game.
Yes, I'm blowing right past all Michigan's wins, including an impressive three-game stretch last year against Wisconsin, Michigan State and Penn State, but ask yourself this: if the defense wasn't such a liability when it mattered the most in these 13 losses, how many does U-M win? FSU 2016, Wisconsin 2017, South Carolina 2017, Penn State 2019 would be my picks.
If that were the case, Michigan would have been an 11-2, Orange Bowl-winning, top-five national finish team in 2016, a 10-3, Top 15 team in 2017, and they'd still be in the Big Ten race this season heading into November.
Will Ronnie Bell ever be able to bounce back?
That answer to that question only Bell can truly answer. I was racking my brain trying to think of a more gut-wrenching miscue by a Wolverine at such a critical juncture in a game and came up with one - punter Blake O'Neill against Michigan State in 2015. There have been other big mistakes but how many that have decided the game's final outcome?
The defense rallied and appeared to have the stop of Barrett against Ohio State in 2016. Perhaps Jordan Glasgow's missed tackle on a Florida State kickoff return in that same year's Orange Bowl, but Michigan still led and the defense still had a chance. Shawn Crable's roughing the passer against the Buckeyes in 2006? There was still a lot of time left in the game when it happened.
The last time a Michigan wide receiver dropped a game-winning or game-tying touchdown in the final five minutes ... I can't recall one instance in my 20 years covering the U-M football program. That was the magnitude of the moment last night and that's what Bell will have to overcome.
You hope he can. Tears streaming down his face, caught by television cameras, you hope he can.
Bell had five catches for 82 yards, his 35-yard catch and run on 3rd-and-4 setting up a touchdown that brought Michigan within seven, 28-21. And he would have had a goofy 22-yard second-quarter touchdown reception if not negated by a penalty for an illegal man down field.
The former two-star recruit out of St. Louis, who was headed to play college basketball until Michigan discovered him, has been one of the program's most pleasant surprises, leading the team in receptions (25) and receiving yards (443). Oddly, he doesn't have a TD catch yet this year, and fairly or not, he's now had four end-zone passes go through his fingers, none more damning than last night.
O'Neill showed intestinal resolve following his blunder, averaging 41.6 yards per punt the rest of the season, but will forever be remembered for "trouble with the snap." The good news for Bell is that he has 2+ seasons remaining in his career to write a new chapter, but you just never know how someone will respond.
Will this drop define his career or will he overcome, make some big plays in important games going forward and become an example to future Wolverines how to emerge out of your darkest moment?
