Know The Enemy: Michigan To Face Michigan State In Top Ten Matchup
It's 7-0 vs. 7-0. It's two top-ten teams. It's the Paul Bunyan Trophy. It's Michigan vs. Michigan State.
This weekend's game is at the center of the college football universe as ESPN College Gameday, Fox's Big Noon Kickoff and the crew from Barstool Sports all decided to converge on East Lansing to cover the huge rivalry matchup between Michigan and Michigan State.
The two fanbases know a lot about each other and have grown to hate each other over the years. Michigan State currently has bragging rights and the Paul Bunyan Trophy after beating U-M in Ann Arbor last year as 21-point underdogs. This year, the Wolverines will invade Spartan Stadium as 4.5-point favorites in hopes of moving to 8-0.
Matthew Lounsberry of Spartan Nation points out what Michigan State does well and what they're not so good at. He also identifies three standout Spartans and gives a breakdown of how the game might look.
Team Strength
The biggest strength of the Spartans is their balanced approach on offense. Kenneth Walker III gets all the love at tailback -- for good reason, he’s a Heisman candidate -- but make no mistake, Michigan State can do a lot of damage with quarterback Payton Thorne and wideouts Jalen Nailor and Jayden Reed. The Spartans rank 27th in the nation in offensive yards per game (35th in rushing, 50th in passing), and also reside within the Top 30 in scoring offense. This is the best offense that Michigan will have seen so far. The Wolverines’ cornerbacks got torched in this game a season ago, and there’s no doubt that MSU’s passing attack has improved dramatically since then. The threat of Walker in the backfield makes Nailor and Reed all the more dangerous. So, what is Mike Macdonald going to do? Load the box to stop Walker, and risk the big play over the top? Or, take a more balanced approach, and risk Walker running wild? That’s the challenge that this Spartan offense presents.
Team Weakness
Michigan State’s secondary has proven to be the area to attack for opposing offenses. The Spartans rank dead last in the Big Ten in passing yards allowed per game (285.4) and 120th out of 129 FBS teams. While Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara hasn’t lit the world on fire with his passing numbers, this game presents an opportunity for him to have a big game. It’s not all bad when the Spartans are defending the pass however, as they lead the conference with 26 sacks on the season. If MSU can put pressure on McNamara, that would go a long way towards protecting their corners in coverage.
Three Players To Know
RB Kenneth Walker III, No. 9
Walker burst onto the scene with a huge performance in Week 1 against Northwestern (23 carries, 264 yards, 4 TDs) and has had national attention ever since. At 5-10, 210 pounds, Walker is a good-sized back who is tough to take down, but he’s also shown excellent agility and speed in the open field. The transfer from Wake Forest is currently 2nd in the nation in rushing yards (997 on 152 carries) and has scored nine touchdowns on the ground and added another through the air. Walker can make guys miss in a phone booth, so it’s paramount for defenders to swarm to the ball when it’s in his arms. No matter who the opponent is, Walker is priority No. 1 for any defensive scheme.
QB Payton Thorne, No. 10
Thorne may be the most overlooked player on Michigan State’s roster, and that’s a mistake for opposing defenses. The sophomore from Naperville, Ill. has thrown for 1,701 yards and 15 touchdowns against only 4 interceptions. His QBR of 73.8 ranks 20th in the nation. Thorne brings an element to the Spartan offense that was missing in guys like Rocky Lombardi and Brian Lewerke. His accuracy downfield and in the intermediate throws stands out, and he’s taking advantage of the many weapons he has around him. Thorne has also shown his athleticism on a number of occasions. He can escape the pocket, pick up yards with his legs and even made an incredible catch up the sideline with a foot in-bounds against Indiana two weeks ago. Thorne could very well be the key to a Spartans’ victory this week.
WR Jalen Nailor, No. 8
Nailor is a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses. At 6-0, 109 pounds, he’s bigger than most cornerbacks he’s lined up across from, and he has the ability to high-point the football. But don’t test this guy with a safety either -- nicknamed “Speedy”, Nailor is a deep threat with the best of them in this conference. The junior wideout’s rare combination of size and speed has allowed him to account for 512 yards and 6 touchdowns through the air on 27 catches. With Nailor lined up alongside fellow wideout and big-play threat Jayden Reed, there aren’t too many receiving corps across the country that can match what the Spartans put on the field.
Game Overview/Prediction:
On paper, these two squads match up very well with one another. Neither team has faced an overly-challenging schedule through seven games. Against common opponents (Northwestern, Nebraska, Rutgers), Michigan State has won by a combined 38 points, while Michigan has won by 36 points. That’s a razor-thin point differential. However, I feel like Michigan State has some advantages in the game. The Spartans are at home -- that hasn’t mattered in the last six games of this series, but it still gives MSU an edge. Michigan State is more balanced offensively than Michigan, making them less predictable and more difficult to defend. Mel Tucker and his staff trust their quarterback to make plays down the field. Can we say the same thing about Jim Harbaugh with Cade McNamara? That’s a huge question, because the best area to attack the Spartans’ defense is the secondary. Michigan State has the more proven weapons on the outside in Jalen Nailor and Jayden Reed. I feel like Michigan has to have success in its run game in order to win. I don’t know if the Spartans need Kenneth Walker to have a big game, the threat of him alone will open things up in the pass game. For these reasons, I’m giving the edge to Sparty in a bit of a shootout.
