WHAT IF: J.T. Barrett Was Ruled Short
With the sports community coming to a standstill while our country (and the world) battles to counter the coronavirus pandemic, we will be looking back at moments in Michigan sports history and how one decision, one small change could have had a dramatic impact.
The Moment - Nov. 26, 2016
In Year 2 of the Jim Harbaugh era, Michigan ran out to a 9-0 record before a 14-13 loss at Iowa in Week 10. The Wolverines' position nationally didn't change as they stayed third in the College Football Playoff Rankings, and after a win over Indiana, the Maize and Blue entered THE Game ranked No. 3 in a matchup against No. 2 Ohio State, Big Ten title game and playoff implications on the line.
Michigan led 17-7 late in the third quarter, its defense dominating Ohio State's one-dimensional run-first offense, but a couple of key miscues - a pick-six, a fumble on the OSU goal line and a second interception at the Michigan 35-yard line (returned 22 yards to the 13) provided opportunities for Ohio State to tie the game, 17-17, at the end of regulation, sending it into overtime.
The rivals traded touchdowns in the opening overtime. U-M had the ball first in the second overtime and were forced to settle for a field goal after a third-down pass interference of wide receiver Grant Perry was not flagged.
Three plays into the Buckeyes' possession, Ohio State faced a 4th-and-1 at the Michigan 16-yard line. OSU quarterback JT Barrett kept the ball going left, and diving for the first-down marker he was awarded the line to gain by the nose of the ball.
One play later, Buckeye Curtis Samuel scored on a 15-yard touchdown run and Ohio State had a 30-27 victory.
What It Meant
Michigan fell to sixth in the final playoff rankings and went to the Orange Bowl to play Florida State.
Penn State, by virtue of a head-to-head tiebreaker with Ohio State, played in and won the Big Ten Championship against Wisconsin. OSU, however, finished the season 11-1 and No. 3 in the playoff rankings, meeting Clemson in the College Football semifinals and losing 31-0.
The Tigers would go on to beat Alabama 35-31 to win their first national championship in more than 30 years.
Immediate Alternate Universe
Had Barrett been ruled short by the officials, the game would have ended Michigan 27-24 victors, Big Ten East champions, and after its head-to-head 49-10 win over Penn State in October, headed to the Big Ten Championship against Wisconsin.
Harbaugh would have been 1-1 against Ohio State and Urban Meyer while Meyer lost his first game to Michigan, 1-4 after five meetings.
Phase II
Michigan had bested Wisconsin earlier in the season, 14-7, holding a pedestrian Badger rushing offense (by their standards, they ranked 39th nationally averaging 203.1 yards per game) to just 71 yards on 28 carries while the Wolverines' stout pass defense limited Wisconsin QB Alex Hornibrook to a 54.8 passer rating on that day.
U-M's offense wasn't at its best in late November, limited by a collarbone injury to starting signal-caller Wilton Speight. He would be forced to play through it in the Big Ten Championship, as he did in Columbus.
Still, with Michigan's defense playing at an elite level, a game-breaker on offense and special teams in Jabrill Peppers, and playmakers in Jehu Chesson, Amara Darboh and Jake Butt, the Maize and Blue would have been favored.
Penn State beat Wisconsin 38-31 in Indianapolis. U-M's game probably would have looked much different, but it's fair to argue Michigan would have won.
With a Big Ten Championship secure, Michigan would have earned a spot in the College Football Playoff, either as the two or three seed. Alabama, which was 13-0, would have likely remained the No. 1 seed, still matching up with No. 4 Washington.
It's hard to imagine Ohio State, at 10-2, or Penn State, at 10-2, making the top four.
Could the Wolverines have beaten Clemson? Probably not. The Tigers, behind dynamic QB Deshaun Watson, pummeled Ohio State in the semifinals before stunning the Crimson Tide. Perhaps if Speight recovered fully, but it would have been a herculean challenge. Clemson wins.
Domino Effect
Though Michigan probably would have lost in the semifinals, the program and Harbaugh would have received major bumps, as U-M would have announced to the college football world it was back in a big way, similar to what Georgia did under Kirby Smart.
In Year 2 of the Smart era in 2017, the Bulldogs made the playoff, finishing their season 13-2 and No. 2 in the country. Michigan would have been 12-2 and No. 3 in 2016.
Since that 2017 season, UGA has gone 11-3 and 12-2, ranking No. 7 and No. 4 nationally, signing the nation's No. 1 class in the 2018 recruiting calendar, the No. 2 class in 2019 and the No. 1 class again in 2020.
Now, Georgia has greater access to more fertile recruiting territories than Michigan does (the southeast is littered with a greater quantity of five- and four-stars compared to the Midwest) and may bend the rules in a way that the Maize and Blue do not, but undoubtedly, the Wolverines would have had better chances to sign more Top 50 recruits in the 2017, 2018 and 2019 classes.
During those three years, Michigan signed the No. 5, No. 22 and No. 8 classes nationally, inking six total Top 50 prospects. One would have to imagine they would have fared a little better, getting into that Top 5 range and probably another 6-10 Top 50 recruits, helping to sustain their on-field potential and giving them the athletes to go toe-to-toe with Meyer's Ohio State teams in 2018-19.
Where would Michigan and Harbaugh be today? Many of the negative themes - won-loss record against Top 10 teams, record on the road against Top 25 teams, lack of Big Ten titles, record against Ohio State - all would have been poof like that.
A victory in Columbus may have instilled a culture of winning the toughest games, carrying over into future seasons while (possibly) creating a little doubt among the Buckeyes.
U-M went 8-5, 10-3 and 9-4 in 2017-19, finishing unranked, No. 14 and No. 18 nationally. I'd be willing to bet if they had beaten Ohio State on that November day in 2016, the fate of the Maize and Blue would have looked a lot different with a second Big Ten title-game opportunity and another college football playoff. They may have even tipped the rivalry back to an equal position.
