These Stats Show How Fumbles are Killing Michigan

If you want to know the thin margin between winning and losing, or winning impressively and holding on, check this out.

First, some numbers to set the table here.  

Michigan tragically leads the nation in fumbles so far this season -- 17 fumbles from 12 different players. The Wolverines have lost 9 of those fumbles. Opponents have scored 36 points off of Michigan's turnovers, which is 34% of the total points the Wolverines have given up so far this fall. At the same time, Michigan is averaging just under 3 points per possession. 

Here's how those numbers play out in a real-time game setting. 

If you take the average points per Michigan possession and then include the actual game value of all these turnovers, both on the points not scored by the offense and the points given up by the defense, it amounts to almost a six point swing per game. That may not sound like a lot until you actually apply it what we've seen so far this season:

• Middle Tennessee: Goes from a 40-21 Michigan victory to a 43-18 win. The Wolverines still don't cover that 34-point spread, but in terms of optics it certainly looks better keeping such a heavy underdog in the teens. Not to mention Middle Tennessee scored both its first two touchdowns following Michigan turnovers. 
• Army: This was a 24-21 double overtime nail-biter, so a six point swing in regulation doesn't change much here. Until you realize both of the Cadets' regulation touchdowns came after Michigan turnovers. 
• Wisconsin: Nothing changes. This was never a competitive game, or at least not after Ben Mason's red zone fumble on Michigan's first possession. 
• Rutgers: Nothing really changes, because the Scarlet Knights are historically awful. 
• Iowa: The Wolverines actually won the turnover battle here, mainly because they managed to recover two of their own fumbles in a 10-3 victory. Except if you incorporate that average six-point turnover swing per game, this becomes a 13-0 shutout. 
• Illinois: Shift that 42-25 win to 45-22 and the Wolverines hit that 23-point spread right on the number. 

Add this all up, and you get a second consecutive shutout win while avoiding your offense consistently setting up the first two opponents for most of their points. Yes, the Wolverines are still 5-1 as they are now, but you certainly feel better about the trajectory of the season.