Best And Worst Case Scenarios For Michigan Against Michigan State
Michigan has more talent than Michigan State on paper and the Spartans are also pretty beat up heading into this weekend's contest. That makes this a pretty easy game to forecast, but you never know with Sparty. The Spartan defense was billed as one the best in the country before the season started but it's been less than dominant. Michigan, on the other hand, seems to be ascending and is coming off a bye week. Those things seem to favor U-M but we've seen some lackluster performances out of the Maize and Blue this fall as well. Michigan is favored by 13.5 but it feels like it could be worse given the state of both teams right now.
Best Case
Offense
Senior quarterback Shea Patterson continues to take care of the ball and is efficient as a game manager. He has cleaned up the fumble issues that plagued him earlier in the year and there shouldn't be any outside influences on a nice, yet cold, day in Ann Arbor. He won't throw it all over the lot but he'll find a few receivers more than 20 yards down the field and tosses a couple of touchdowns. Patterson himself said that he feels completely healthy after the bye week and will run the ball more because of it. He'll keep the ball a few times and really hurt the Spartans with his legs. He's not going to rush for 100 yards, but he'll move the chains a few times and keep the Spartan defense guessing just enough.
Michigan's receivers have a physical edge against just about everyone and it's true this weekend against a Michigan State secondary that isn't defending the pass very well. Nico Collins and Donovan Peoples-Jones both have big days against defenders who simply can't check them. They both find the end zone like they did against Notre Dame and allow Patterson to have a solid, winning day.
The offensive line has now strung together several strong performances starting in the second half against Penn State and it continues against Michigan State. The Spartan front seven hasn't been as good as many thought and they're now without senior captain linebacker Joe Bachie while he sits out for taking performance enhancing drugs. That group continues to improve and moves the line of scrimmage downfield allowing Zach Charbonnet and Hassan Haskins to get it going just like they did against Notre Dame and Maryland.
Defense
The defensive line was dominant against good teams in Iowa, Penn State, Notre Dame, Maryland, and Michigan State has the worst offense of the bunch. Brian Lewerke is playing a little bit better as of late but he hasn't been a game changer and the Spartans are going to try to protect him with two freshmen offensive linemen. Michigan State is also going to be without a couple of wide receivers and its starting tight end. All of that means that Don Brown is licking his chops. The veteran coordinator sends endless pressure at Lewerke. The front seven's pressure not only affects Lewerke, but keeps Michigan State's talented running back Elijah Collins in check as well. He won't get to 50 yards.
Downfield, U-M's secondary keeps outmatched receivers locked up and things in front of them limiting big plays. The Spartans won't be able put together any long drives so scoring altogether is going to be a rare occurrence. Michigan State hasn't been able to put together many sustained drives and won't be able to against Michigan.
Worst Case
Offense
Michigan enters the game with a conservative approach and runs the ball too much, which gives Michigan State a chance to shut down the offense. Michigan State's front seven is certainly capable so running into them plays into their hands a bit.
Patterson reverts back to what we saw earlier this year when he wasn't healthy and refuses to keep the ball when yardage is there to be had. He gets antsy in the pocket and fails to keep his eyes downfield, allowing for a scrappy Michigan State defensive line to get some hits on him.
With the threat of Patterson as a runner neutralized, the Spartans sell out to stop the run and do just that. Because of that, the U-M leans on the passing game but Patterson isn't accurate or confident enough to throw the ball downfield rendering Michigan's entire offense essentially ineffective. Three and outs mount, drives stall and Michigan struggles to put points on the board.
Defense
We see something that looks like the defense's performance against Wisconsin. For some reason, Michigan's front four and linebackers are routinely out of position allowing Collins to break a couple of long runs and gain confidence.
Lewerke, who is definitely a throw-first quarterback, keeps the ball correctly on zone reads and rips off a couple of nice runs himself. He's been able to score from distance with his legs a couple of times this year and he does that against U-M giving him confidence, which completely changes his demeanor and approach as a passer. He takes chances, pushes the ball vertically and throws accurate balls, three things he hasn't done much this year.
The successful rushing attack allows Lewerke to find some big plays downfield off of play action and MSU's banged up receiving corps has its best game of the season.
How do you see the game playing out? Can Michigan actually blow out a scrappy Spartan team? Comment below!!!
