Expectations Have Never Been Higher For Michigan Hockey
There are just 13 first-round NHL Draft picks currently on the rosters of college hockey’s 59 Division I programs (and its roughly 1,600 student-athletes). Michigan has seven of them. Minnesota has two and the other 57 programs, just four total.
To say Michigan is the most talented team in college hockey in 2021-22 is a massive understatement. The Wolverines are by a long shot.
Thus, as U-M prepares to meet Denver in a Frozen Four semifinal in Boston April 7, it is the consensus favorite to win the national championship, and many are even saying that if Michigan returns to Ann Arbor empty handed (or even with a runner-up trophy), the season has been a failure.
That’s a big statement for a program that spent every single week of the season in the Top 10, swept in-state rival Michigan State an unprecedented six times, sent four players to the Olympics (two each for Canada and Team USA), finished second in the Big Ten regular season, won the Big Ten Tournament title, entered the NCAA Tournament the No. 1 overall seed, and has already won two NCAA games for the first time since advancing to the Frozen Four in 2018.
And yet, that bold declaration seems about right.
This is team that is built to overwhelm any opponent it faces, with an offense that ranks third nationally with 4.02 goals per game. U-M is one of just two programs with a pair of 20-goal scorers in sophomores Matty Beniers and Brendan Brisson (Denver is the other), boasts the top offensive defenseman in college hockey (freshman Luke Hughes leads all blue liners in goals, with 17, and points, with 39), while Michigan’s fourth line has scored 18 goals this season.
Last weekend, U-M put seven goals on a Quinnipiac team that had been allowing just 1.12 in its previous 41 contests.
Michigan scored five or more goals in 17 of its 41 games. So far, in six postseason games, when goals are supposed to be harder to come by, the Wolverines have hit the back of the net 30 times (5.00 average).
And this is not an ugly-goal-scoring team. Michigan doesn’t dump and chase the puck, hoping to create scoring chances off rebounds. This is a tic-tac-toe precision-passing club that carries the puck across the blue line and relies on individuals with incredible puck skills to create opportunities for themselves and teammates. To watch the Wolverines is to watch the kind of offense you wish permeated through every hockey rink.
Defensively, the Wolverines are no slouches, statistically. They rank seventh nationally, allowing just 2.22 goals while sophomore goalie Erik Portillo was a Big Ten Goalie of the Year finalist and is surrendering 2.13 goals per game with a .926 save percentage in 41 starts.
That’s not to say they’re immune to bad defense; U-M allowed four or more goals in six contests (all losses), including a 5-1 loss to Western Michigan, a 5-4 loss to Notre Dame and a 6-1 loss to Ohio State during the regular season.
In its 6-0 postseason run, Michigan has surrendered just 12 goals, though 10 in the last three games (two NCAA wins and the Big Ten championship win over Minnesota).
That 4-3 victory over the Golden Gophers was a tad deceiving, as Minnesota scored twice in the final minute of the third period to make the score closer than the game was, but, combined with U-M’s 7-4 NCAA Midwest Regional final win over Quinnipiac March 27, raises concerns – Michigan led Quinnipiac 4-0 entering the third period and allowed three goals in a seven-minute stretch before responding with three more of its own.
If there is a knock on this Michigan team is that the Wolverines can be unfocused, especially in their own zone, losing track of their defensive assignments and leaving the front of the net exposed. There is a sense that as much firepower as U-M possesses, the worst thing that can happen for them is to get out to a big lead, thus lulling them to sleep and creating the crevices an opponent needs to rally quickly.
Michigan was 7-3-0 in one-goal games this season and as nerve-wracking as that can be for fans, it probably allowed U-M to stay locked in for 60 minutes. That’s not to say a back-and-forth nail biter is what the Wolverines are hoping for April 7. Their ideal scenario is getting ahead by two goals early and slowly increasing that lead little by little, something they are completely capable of.
It should help that in Denver, they face another run-and-gun team that ranks first nationally in scoring with 4.28 goals per game (but ranks 46th with 2.31 allowed per contest).
Offensive fireworks should be on full display in Michigan’s game and in the entire weekend as Minnesota State (second) and Minnesota (fourth) also rank in the Top 10 nationally for scoring.
The upcoming Frozen Four should be a rare treat for college hockey fans, featuring the four best teams this year (they finished 1-4 in the Pairwise rankings, with three of them earning No. 1 seeds). The latter hasn’t happened since the 2017 Frozen Four and is only the third time in the last decade to feature three No. 1 seeds.
That may not seem like a big deal to casual college hockey fans used to the madness of the men’s basketball tournament, but college hockey only invites 16 teams. However, on any given day, any team can beat anybody, even the strongest Goliaths because of one position – the goalie. A hot goalie can ruin even the most potent offense.
On the surface, Denver goalie Magnus Chrona is not that guy – his .909 save percentage ranks 36th nationally – but he does rank 13th in goals against (2.16). In Denver’s seven-game postseason run, they have allowed just 10 goals and, like Michigan, have been blitz-krieging the opposition with tallies of 5-0, 5-2, 5-2 and 5-1.
The Pioneers won their two NCAA games uncomfortably, 3-2 and 2-1, but no one is expecting a low-scoring outcome when Michigan and Denver meet.
On paper, no one – not even Denver – can match the Wolverines, but if the best team was supposed to win it all U-M would have three or four more NCAA titles since last winning in 1998. That it has been more than 20 years doesn’t seem real (Michigan, arguably, should have titles in 2003, 2005, 2008, 2010 and 2011).
Michigan is due. And if not now, with this roster, then when?