Staff Predictions: Michigan State vs. Minnesota
After two wins against Mid-American Conference opponents, Michigan State was shown its shortcomings in a 39-28 loss to Washington a week ago. Now, the Spartans look to bounce back when they open Big Ten play on Saturday in East Lansing.
Michigan State (2-1) will host Minnesota (3-0) in a critical game for both programs. While these programs compete on opposite sides of the Big Ten, both have aspirations of reaching the conference championship game. The loser of Saturday’s game will have ground to make up immediately in their division standings.
The loss to Washington revealed that the Spartans have problems on the back end of their defense once again. In addition, MSU’s depth and talent issues along the offensive line reared their ugly head once again against the Huskies.
Meanwhile, the Golden Gophers still have something to prove after opening their season with wins over overmatched foes New Mexico State, Western Illinois and Colorado.
Michigan State and Minnesota will meet on the gridiron for the first time since 2017, which resulted in a 30-27 victory for the Spartans. In fact, MSU has won each of the last five meetings with the Golden Gophers. Michigan State holds a 30-17 all-time advantage in this series, but is entering Saturday’s game a three-point home underdog.
Without further ado, Spartan Nation senior writer Matthew Lounsberry and contributor Aedan Mulcrone each share 3 Bold Predictions as well as Game Previews, and Final Score Predictions below:
Matt’s 3 Bold Predictions
1.) MSU’s defense holds Minnesota’s Mo Ibrahim under 100 rushing yards
Mo Ibrahim is one of the best and most experienced tailbacks in the Big Ten. He’s scored 40 rushing touchdowns and has run for nearly 3,500 yards in his career. Ibrahim has averaged 111.8 rushing yards per game over the course of his career, and he’s averaging 154.7 yards on the ground through three games in 2022.
Meanwhile, Michigan State’s defense has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in its last 16 games. It’s a tall task, but I think the Spartans keep that streak alive this Saturday. Minnesota will find some success on the ground – they average 312.7 rushing yards per game – but the Gophers will have to spread it around to multiple backs.
2.) Jayden Reed has 5+ catches, 80+ yards, at least one touchdown
I haven’t been given an update on Jayden Reed’s health or status for this game, but I expect him to be back. That’s just my own gut feeling, I’m not privy to any inside information on that.
With that said, I’m sure it was frustrating for Reed to sit at home and watch his team struggle last week in Seattle. If he’s back on the field, he’ll make an impact. I’ll call for the senior wide receiver to grab at least five catches, go over 80 yards receiving and find the endzone as well.
3.) Payton Thorne throws for 275+ passing yards, three touchdowns
I just don’t know what to expect out of Michigan State’s run game this week. The Spartans were held to just 42 rushing yards a week ago, and Minnesota has allowed just 69.7 rush yards per game so far this season – albeit against subpar competition.
Due to that, I think MSU needs another big game out of Payton Thorne. The redshirt junior was one of the lone bright spots for the Spartans at Washington, completing a career-high 30 passes for 323 yards and three touchdowns.
I’ll call for a similar stat line for Michigan State’s signal-caller in Week 4.
Aedan’s 3 Bold Predictions
1.) Tre Mosley extends his touchdown streak
Mosley has caught a touchdown pass in each of Michigan State’s first three games. If Jayden Reed returns to the lineup this week, the Spartans will have their full complement of skill position threats to throw at the Gophers.
Minnesota has a good secondary, but I question their depth on the back end. MSU has outmatched their first three opponents on the outside with its superior perimeter talent.
Payton Thorne has done a good job working through his progressions through the first three games, which is part of the reason his throws have been spread around to guys like Mosley and Germie Bernard.
Michigan State’s rushing performance was underwhelming against Washington, and Minnesota probably has a better run defense than the Huskies. I expect offensive coordinator Jay Johnson to dial up more passes in this game, which should mean more targets for Mosley.
2.) MSU records their first interception of the season
With Minnesota senior receiver Chris Autman-Bell out for the season, paired with Tanner Morgan’s accuracy struggles, Michigan State will get its first interception of the season in Week 4, and it will be a much-needed boost of confidence for the Spartans.
Morgan is a good quarterback, but his accuracy can come and go at times. Head coach Mel Tucker said he took the Spartans' poor performance against the pass personally, and there’s a high level of motivation to get that fixed. This is a great opportunity for Michigan State to prove it's taken a step forward.
3.) Jalen Berger rushes for and catches a touchdown
Tailback Jalen Berger will be looking to bounce back after an underwhelming performance against Washington. I’m not comfortable saying how many rushing yards he’ll have, but I’ll say that scores twice.
The rushing touchdown will be in a short yardage situation, as Minnesota’s defense has been good at preventing big plays.
Like I said in my Mosley prediction, I expect the ball to be thrown a lot more. Berger has been targeted more out of the backfield in the last two games. The Gophers’ pass defense will be focused on other areas, which will open up the passing game more for Mosley and Berger.
Matt’s Preview, Score Prediction
I’m fascinated by this game and by this matchup. Both of these teams have aspirations of making it to the Big Ten championship game, and starting conference play with a loss puts a damper on those hopes, especially Michigan State. The Spartans still have games against Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan and Penn State.
Minnesota’s biggest offensive strength is its run game, but Michigan State’s defense has been excellent against the run over these last two seasons. I’m excited to see how that matchup plays out. I also want to see how the Spartans adjust offensively – do they come out and let Payton Thorne sling the ball around to their various pass-catching weapons? Can MSU’s O-line improve after a poor showing against Washington?
I’ve gone back and forth on this game throughout the week. Michigan State opened as a one-point favorite, but the line quickly shifted four points in favor of Minnesota, and the Spartans now find themselves as a three-point home underdog.
My gut tells me that Mel Tucker will have this team fired up to go out and prove that they belong in the discussion for a Big Ten championship. However, I think Minnesota is a good football team, and the various injuries that the Spartans have accumulated in 2022 scare me in a game that is bound to be physical. Score Prediction: Michigan State 31, Minnesota 33
Aedan’s Preview, Score Prediction
I hate picking against Michigan State, but I’m going to in this game. I hope I’m wrong, but the Spartans haven’t proven that they’ve fixed the issues in pass defense from a year ago.
Minnesota has shown that they mean business in 2022. This program has improved from top to bottom every year since Fleck got to Minneapolis. They are my pick to win the Big Ten West this season.
Michigan State was beaten in the trenches against Washington, from the first snap to the last, and it doesn’t get any easier this week. Someone on the Spartans’ defensive line needs to step up, and the offensive line needs to find the right rotation and stick with it. Michigan State might find some answers this weekend, but the game might get out of reach before those answers are found. Score Prediction: Michigan State 30, Minnesota 34
