Scouting Report and Prediction: Michigan State 4-2 vs. #8 Wisconsin 5-0
Scouting Report and Prediction: Michigan State 4-2 vs. #8 Wisconsin 5-0
A look at this week's opponent…
Mark Dantonio and the Spartans are leaving the frying pan of Columbus and jumping into the fryer known as Madison. Dantonio said of the trip to Camp Randall, “First time going up there since 2012. Always had great games with Wisconsin. Have not played them in a while. 2016 was the last time. They came down here, but games have always been physical. Expect the same thing to happen. Have a tremendous amount of respect for Paul Chryst and what he's been able to accomplish up there and what he continues to do.”
They are a top ten team worthy of the ranking. While they are NOT Ohio State good, they are elite. A lauded offense and an undervalued defense that sits among the nation’s best.
When MSU has the ball…
The MSU offense has a reputation. Spartan Nation has said numerous times that talent is not the issue, it is scheme and coaching. Wisconsin Badger DC Jim Leonhard said this week, “I think it’s (MSU Offense) been a little inconsistent at times, but the talent is high.”
Dantonio said of the Wisconsin defense that, “I think they operate -- you're not sitting there saying, okay, here is this particular guy and he's the only guy they have. I think they operate very well together. They are very well tied together. You can tell its team defense. They have a lot of guys making a lot of plays and they are bringing people from every direction at times.”
He continued, “You know, they are tough to say, okay, where is the pressure coming from, and so you have to designate that and block them off. They do some things in the back end that keep you off-balance, as well but they will play some tight coverage and they are getting people in negative yardage situations.”
He added, “You know, last week I said there were some astronomical numbers I think we talked about, 38 touchdowns, four giving up. This week, I think they are -- when it's third and seven plus, I think, opposing offenses are one out of 39 against them, which is -- that's almost unheard of.”
He ended his praise of the Badger D by adding, “So we have to do better than that, but there's some different things statistically that they are doing very, very well and it shows in terms of how they play. They play hard. They play active. They put a premium on toughness. We do, as well. So it should be a great football game. Looking forward to it.”
I want to reiterate for what seems like the ten-thousandth time. Talent IS NOT the issue. Let me explain in detail.
In 2018 the Spartans benched Brian Lewerke and brought in Rocky Lombardi. Now relax, this isn’t a Brian vs. Rocky comment. Lombardi led the Spartans to their only scores. However, when the offensive brain trust of coaching called an option to the short side of the field, the play was a disaster and Lombardi got benched.
This year, with a different QB and a different RB, the Spartans ran the exact same play and got the same result. That staff had 365 days to fix the execution and to know if it could be executed before they called it. They didn’t. That was 100% on coaching.
Who cares how many yards you get. It is about winning. The Spartans are 4-2. If they fail in the next two games, the season, if you judge it by Dantonio’s mantra of, “Competitive for Big Ten titles” is over. For the second straight year, one of the best defenses in Spartan HISTORY will be wasted by a pathetic offensive leadership.
Say what you want, Dantonio admits to demanding perfection from his defense. As one of his coaches once told me, “It is a damn shame he doesn’t demand the same thing from the offense.”
When MSU is on defense…
Coach Dantonio said of their offense that, “It is a different type of attack. You know, when you look at Ohio State, they ran inside zone 18 times, or 20 times they were in the outside zone 18 times, and a quarterback counter once and a truck play, which is a gap schemes play, one time maybe.”
He continued, “What you get from Wisconsin is a multitude of gap schemes where they are pulling linemen, sort of counter OT, both guard and tackle pulling. You'll get truck play with them going to the tight end. You'll get inside zone. You'll get lead iso, a lot more different formations and a lot more different running-type players from a variety of informations and personnel groupings. No huddle. It's a little bit more, I want to say, old school, but now it seems contemporary. There's variations of what they do and they do it very well.”
The Badgers do nothing fancy. They simply attack right at you. I once had a parent of a very successful Spartan offensive player tell me, “Can you tell me why we have such small offensive lineman when we claim to want to be Wisconsin and Iowa?” I agree with that parent and you will see on Saturday how the Badgers develop offensive lineman and attack you.
The best way to describe the Wisconsin offense is that they have the mentality of the Spartan defense. Attack, attack and oh by the way, attack some more. It is a thing of beauty.
Intangibles…
Remember the rule of five. If MSU wins that, games are over. For those who don't remember it, it has to do with sacks and turnovers. If the Spartans have three sacks and give up two, that means they are plus one. If they then get four turnovers and give up only one that means they are plus three. That would give them a plus-four for the day. They want to get to a plus-five ratio at least every game. Teams that win the rule of five-win 91% of ball games.
To his credit, Mark Dantonio has raised the bar of expectations since his arrival. To the credit of the fans, they have stepped up with the resources to make it happen as well.
After calling last week a measuring stick and the team clearly not living up to it, Dantonio was asked this week if he is a victim of his own success?
“I think that we have high expectations within our program. I think every year we line up and say: Okay, we can win every football game. I think that's what you have to be able to do. To say I'm a victim, that might be accurate, okay. But I just believe in trying to win and continuing to preach confidence and part of that -- to go in expecting to win and expecting good things to happen.”
He went on, “Even last week, is it half-full or is it half-empty, you know. And I can point to numerous times in that football game where we got a chance. You know, you can look at all different type of scenarios. If you don't turn the ball over two times in the first four plays, what's the rest of the first half look like you certainly don't have 2:58 on the clock, but if we had scored a touchdown rather than kicked a field goal, it would have been 17-14 at the half.”
Dantonio elaborated, “So there's a lot of ifs and what ifs there that you can go through and point towards things. Now, we had to play well. We had to play perfect, and we did not. But there's enough good there that you can point to say, hey, we're hanging. We're hanging there. We're competitive. Only got 16 yards in the first quarter. Now the second quarter went very, very poorly, but there are things we could have done. After the game I said, hey, there are some things we could have done better and should do better and there are some things they did awful well, so it's a combination of both.”
He finished saying, “We're sort of hanging in there, hanging around, but we want to win every football game, and that's what we're going to try and do, and I think we have the opportunity to do that. When we've had our best year, the seniors have had their best years, we've won the close games. We've won them. So a combination of those things. It's always tight. The games are always tight.”
Extra Point…
The Spartans should keep this closer than OSU. An FG could go a long way. Especially with an offense that can’t put points on the board. Dantonio said of struggling K Matt Coghlin, “But from my perspective, you know, I need to give a guy confidence. I've seen him make kicks. He's been -- he's had a great summer camp. Probably missed two the whole camp. You know, I'm going to remain confident in him until somebody else takes over that position, but somebody else's got to take it over, too. That's another part of this, but I believe he can go in and make the kicks. That's what we're going to do.”
Prediction…
• Coach Chuck Grenier 21-14 Michigan State
• Duffy Carpenter 24-10 Wisconsin
• Jonathan Schopp 38-18 Wisconsin
• Matt Hladik 20-13 Wisconsin
• Matt Duda 45-17 Wisconsin
• Chris Stoddard 31-17 Wisconsin
Mark Dantonio told us last week that the game versus Ohio State was THE measuring stick. I agree with him. This team is not a competitive team among the ELITE teams in the Big Ten. Wisconsin is, and the Spartans have the talent, but the Spartan offensive scheme and coaching aren’t good enough to win the Big Ten. I say make it 21-10 Badgers.
How to Watch…
Who: Michigan State (4-2, 2-1 Big Ten) at #8 Wisconsin (5-0, 2-0).
Time: 3:30 p.m.
Where: Camp Randall Stadium, Madison (80,321).
TV: BTN.
Announcers: Kevin Kugler, Matt Millen and Rick Pizzo.
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