The Outlook Moving Forward: Purdue

Coming off their 27-22 win over the Nebraska Cornhuskers, the Spartans travel to West Lafayette to face the Purdue Boilermakers at 3:30 on ABC.

Offense

Dealing with less than ideal scoring conditions, the Offense made just enough big plays to get the job done. After the 27-3 start, who knew it would turn out that way.  They looked really good in spots but let odd penalties, turnovers, and drive stalling mistakes keep them from putting Nebraska away for good. The Offense could’ve put MSU up more than 4-scores (32-points) by the Half and buried the Huskers. “We need to be able to close it out,” Dantonio affirmed to Spartan Nation earlier this week.

Taking the good with the bad, the Offense should grow from this experience and when you look at all the talent and playmakers lining up for MSU, this should truly become a dominant Offense by the end of the year.  They will not become one if the coaching staff pull up on their reigns and slow them down before the Spartans are more than 4-scores ahead, aka 33 points. They also need to be sure the players on the field fit the situation of the game. For example, Delton Williams not getting a single carry against a bigger and more athletic Nebraska came off as an error of omission.

“I didn't really realize that he didn't play for us yesterday (on offense), he usually does,” Dantonio said Sunday night. “He's a good football player. He brings strength to the power game, to the running game.” Strength and power is exactly what they needed when tough yards were needed between the tackles later in the game. If Williams isn’t a guy that can get those yards at this point, the Spartans need to find another big strong back who can do so, sooner than later. “I think we need to reevaluate what we're doing short yardage wise in light of this past week,” Dantonio added, though he clarified that meant more than just who would be carrying the ball.  Simply put as we've discussed in past weeks, it’s time to see more of Delton Williams.

Watching the Spartans’ play calling after going up 27-3, you could sense live that their strategy had changed. Mark Dantonio confirmed an adjustment was made in his comments after the final whistle. That was simply too soon. As we’ve discussed recently, a 24-point lead (aka 3 scores on the number) is not worth what it once was. College Football has changed. Offenses play at a quicker tempo, get off more plays, and can score quicker to come back from further behind. To pull when up only 24-points left MSU on the edge of peril. Had MSU gone up 33 points or more, Nebraska would have needed 5 separate scores to best MSU. There’s a huge difference between three scores and five, just in the amount of game clock a team would realistically need to pull them all off.

Connor Cook looked up and down Saturday night, but out of the Spartans near melt down a new and perhaps critical opportunity was created for Cook in terms of leadership. Cook needs to grow from Nebraska to become the type of guy who will refuse to let his team slip from such a big lead. Because he is the Quarterback, with all that the position entails, he can make a big difference by emerging as that kind of leader when needed.

While it’s nearly impossible to speak intelligently about the internal workings of a football team from afar, and recognizing that it’s speculative at best, the end of the Nebraska game identified that this team could use more and stronger leadership. Cook is still gaining valuable experience and improving on what is already a fine playing career. He has already become a real NFL prospect, some even suggesting he could become a 1st Round Draft Pick one day. But he doesn’t appear to be an overwhelming “rah-rah” type of leader, and it didn’t standout that he was leading from the front as the Spartans tried to avoid a total collapse in the 4th Quarter. Again, this just appears to be an area that Cook can grow from after Nebraska, it’s not suggesting he was to blame or did anything wrong to bring MSU to the edge of danger.

While not everyone can lead like Pete Carroll, Cook needs to tighten his grip on this unit. Granted, he only runs the plays that are called, but the Offense went “3 and Out” with a missed Field Goal try over four of its final five possessions. They could’ve used more from the Offense to break the Nebraska momentum, and Cook is the guy that must lead them moving forward.

Neither Cook nor any other player calls the Offense for MSU, that’s on the coaches. The same goes for deciding which players are rotating in and out during any given series. It looked a lot like the MSU Offense “flipped the switch" off when up 27-3 and went too conservative. The ghost of a too conservative past seemed to pop up its ugly head again, almost out of nowhere. We thought it had been put to bed for good. As we saw late last Saturday night, once you flip that switch off for an Offense, good luck trying to flip it back on during the same game. “We’re just fortunate to hang on at the end there,” Brad Salem summed up after an incredibly scary 4th Quarter while walking off the Spartan Stadium turf.  The Spartans tried to flip the switch back on very late in the 4th and it didn’t work out too well. Hopefully the entire Nebraska experience will go down as an important lesson learned, and spur new growth from different areas of this high powered unit.

Defense

Without question the Spartan Dawgs came out hungry and looking to eat Saturday night. They gave Nebraska’s Tommy Armstrong the “Devin Gardner running for your life” treatment pretty much from the opening snap. Armstrong didn’t get anywhere near the protection he needed for most of the night as he took a number of big hits from Marcus Rush, Ed Davis, and others. The snarl returned to the Spartans Defense.

We talked last week about Marcus Rush, who got a lot of run in prior weeks from those around the game including the men that actually Coach it. Rush was all over Tommy Armstrong all night, forcing a fumble, and leading a unit that notched 10 tackles for loss and 5 sacks in cementing a place in Nebraska lure as one of the most dominating Defenses they’ve faced during the Bo Pelini era. “We took the leverage angles away from the running back, just like we said we’d do,” Dantonio said after his Defense shut Ameer Abdullah down to just 45-yards on 24 carries. Abdullah should not have numbers that weak for the rest of 2014.

As good as the Spartan Dawgs were Saturday night, and they were nearly perfect at times, they were humbled a bit in the 2nd Half. That’s not a bad thing. After an actual set of adjustments that worked a little bit for Nebraska, they moved the ball on the Spartans and found uncovered receivers on the way to 9 points. A couple times Armstrong didn’t get a chance to see completely wide open receivers during that stretch, and MSU again struggled to adjust or communicate on occasions. It should be a positive that this unit played their best half of the season, and they will find a few things to sharpen up on from the final part of the game when Nebraska made their run. The experience will only drive the Defense to chase perfection with that much more intensity.

Not that complacency is an issue around this program right now, but if the Defense had totally blanked Nebraska in 6-score laugher, how much motivation to improve would they have gathered from that result? How much harder would they grind to sharpen their sword in the coming weeks? Expect this Defense to build off the best of Nebraska and learn from the scary parts of that night to improve from here.

Special Teams

Anyone that didn’t get the value of Special Teams before last week saw the light Saturday night. There was plenty of good, bad, and ugly on display in the less than clement weather. From the beginning to the end, when the Nebraska onside attempt had to be elegantly secured by Kurtis Drummond, big things were happening on both sides of the field.

Mike Sadler had a poor start punting, then started dropping punts inside the 5-yard line and taunting @FauxPelini with a couple strokes of that Twitter icon’s imaginary cat. Later in the game he misfired and Nebraska turned a punt around for a 62-yard touchdown return that cut the score to 27-22. “Punt the ball out of bounds, that’s what we’re supposed to do,” Coach D said in his Lockeroom show immediately after the game about that play. Nine times Sadler punted Saturday night, three of them ended up inside the 20, one was returned for a score, and his day as much as any other individual was a microcosm (look it up if you need to) of the ups and downs of Nebraska.

“We can’t miss a Field Goal at the end of the game,” Dantonio also pointed out on his radio post-game show. Michael Geiger had been very reliable during his MSU career so far, missing only a couple times and never at a critical moment. Having only tried one Field Goal in the last month and kicking on a sloppy, cold, and wet field, perhaps the odds were against things going smoothly as Geiger lined up for a 37-yarder that would’ve put MSU back up 8-points. As that kick rattled off the uprights, many in Spartan Nation got a visceral notion that this bumpy ride was not over yet, and there could be a crash landing on the way.

Moving forward this unit needs to tighten up their kick coverages, keep their Field Goal kicker in a better game rhythm, and hope that Sadler finds consistency again after the erratic action from last Saturday night. They should look to get a big play out of their own return games at some point too because speed and agility are in good supply. Nebraska was probably the wildest Special Teams game around this program in some time.

Overall

A concern for MSU after the Nebraska let down must be leadership. Not chemistry, which continues to appear a team strength, but leadership at least in terms of numbers. That’s an observation from the outside only, not a personal criticism. It looks like MSU lacked the leadership needed to stop the free fall that continued to build during the final act of the late Nebraska thriller. They had plenty of chances to stop the snowball from growing, but couldn’t cut it off. Had that game gone the other way and the Spartans completed an epic “come from ahead loss,” that would’ve really dinged the program and burned off a chunk of the momentum made during 2013. If they want to contend for a national title, they need to grow from Nebraska because they left a prime opportunity to make a strong statement to the country out on the field.

The Spartans had a chance to complete a surprising 1st Half knockout of the Cornhuskers. That was their time to put on a big show, especially as other top teams were going down around the game. They didn’t get it done. They could’ve put Nebraska away for good early in the 3rd, but didn’t get it done. The conservative play calling that popped back up needs to be shed for good if they are to make their best argument to be a part of the Playoff. Face it, they need to blow people out and dominate the weaker Big Ten opponents to give the Playoff Committee no choice by to include MSU in one of their four slots. But honestly the Spartans didn’t do much to bump up their perception Saturday night.  Come November, the win may be really watered down if Nebraska ends up a three loss team or more.

Yes, this program has gotten to the point where we can nitpick about wins a little bit. What a nice problem to have. Yet, because we’re talking about contending for a National Title, not just the Big Ten, we should be straight and admit that MSU blew a chance to destroy Nebraska by at least 4-scores. Instead they let the Huskers hang around, things got flukey, and then got extremely scary all too fast. Again, it’s a great problem to have, but this is not a sugar coating article series. If you’re looking for that, look elsewhere. This is just one assessment considering the national picture of Saturday night’s good but slippery 27-22 win. Those of you watching on TV heard ESPN’s Kirk Herbstriet allude to some of the same points made above, though he was more matter of fact that MSU badly missed their opportunity the way the game flipped on them late.

MSU won’t be tested again for about month unless Michigan finds a rabbit buried in a hat somewhere. Purdue is up next and they may be the Spartans weakest Big Ten foe of 2014. There may not be a program in America that's had a tougher time with the evolution of College Football since the early 2000s than Purdue. Purdue once had a schematic advantage when Joe Tiller was running the show. They also had a string of future NFL Quarterbacks led by perhaps the Big Ten’s best Quarterback of all time, Drew Brees. You knew they had something schematic going on because they got so much out of such average overall talent. Beyond Brees, there was Kyle Orton and a other players mixed in that overachieved. Those days are long gone, and Purdue seems to have even slipped backwards from the Danny Hope era.

We haven’t seen many signs that the Boilers are turning the corner yet and there's no expectation they will be too competitive with Michigan State this weekend. MSU should get up early and often on Purdue. This is another game they should probably win by more than 4-scores, aka 32-points. That sounds like it’s a lot because it is a lot of points. But that's how wide the spread looks when you line these two teams up.

We’ve talked about this team’s need to be consistent for all 60-minutes of each game this season. We’ve harped on how they need to simply play their best for all 60, despite the score, and let the final number play themselves out. Last week that did not happen. Yet, we’ve acknowledged as students of this great game just how difficult that is to pull off in College Football. Just look at all the highly ranked teams that lost to unranked foes last week.  (Nice going, Rich Rodriguez)  It's not that simple.

Out of the best and worst moments of last week, expect the Spartans to bring a focus and polish to West Lafayette this week. Expect them to complete the 1st Half knock out against a very overmatched Purdue team that seems at least 5-years away from decency again. After that they need to keep their foot on the gas and manage the lead beyond 4-scores before thinking of easing up a bit. That drive and focus to play all 60-minutes is really what to eyeball at Purdue. It’s the ability to play all 60 at your best that will ultimately separate the four Playoff teams from all the rest.

P.A.T. (Perhaps Another Thought…)

1. Last week began with a thriller in Eugene that was heavily decided by an excessive celebration penalty on Oregon after they stopped Arizona on a 4th Down. Autzen was jumping, Oregon was expecting to drive down and score to protect their perfect 2014 record, and then came the flag. Did you see that one in all the crazy action from last week? The Pac-12 weekend was just getting started though. The “take two” Field Goal scenario for UCLA to try and snatch a win from Utah that they didn’t deserve was another instant classic. Then came the insane WSU-Cal finish, co-starring the NCAA single game passing record. I take two things away from the wild west coast action from College Football’s upside down weekend:

a.  The Pac-12 Officials are basically a reality show of their own. I know Wisconsin fans are with me on that one.

b.  The Pac-12 craziness was just another reminder of how exciting this sport is because of the wild swings and unpredictable finishes we see so often. That’s why College Football is the superior sports entertainment product to the NFL.

1. The SEC isn’t as good as ESPN and the SEC say they are. Oh, what a difference 15 years makes. Remember the late 90s in the Big Ten, when the bulk of the league was beating itself, Bowl Games were about the fourth biggest game on MSU’s schedule, and the SEC was a “first to 40” unfinished product? The SEC is very good right now, but they don’t have 6 of the best 15 teams in the country today, and they probably won’t at the season’s end.
2. Playing an NFL game every Thursday night is too much. Playing every other Thursday, now that might be the answer. Every Thursday is too soon, too often, and too watered down. Let’s see some more appropriate spacing next year, NFL.