3 Reasons Why Jonathan Smith Hire Won't Work For Michigan State Football

Even the seemingly perfect hire can sometimes go awry. Here are three reasons why Michigan State football's hire of Jonathan Smith won't turn out well for the Spartans...

Amidst several new head coach hires in Power 5 football, Michigan State's hire of Jonathan Smith is considered by most to be among the best this offseason.

Over the weekend, we looked at three reasons why Smith's hire will work out great for the Spartans, but even the most seemingly home-run hires can sometimes fall flat. With that in mind, here are three reasons why the hire of Smith could fail for MSU.

1. Smith and his staff struggle in recruiting

If there's a fair concern regarding Michigan State's hire of Smith it probably revolves around the head coach and his staff's ability to recruit high-level players to East Lansing. The six recruiting classes Smith brought in while the head coach at Oregon State averaged No. 65 in the country, according to 247Sports' composite rankings. Smith also landed just three total four-star prospects in those six classes.

Even taking just the four highest-ranked classes of Smith's tenure with the Beavers, those classes averaged just No. 52 in the country. Now, it's important to note that Michigan State has resources and advantages in recruiting that are far superior to what Oregon State has to offer, so that should help Smith attract a higher level of high school talent. With that understanding, there's still a level of "prove it" that Smith and his staff have to attain in East Lansing.

Hired by Michigan State in November, Smith had to quickly put a staff together and salvage what was left of the Spartans' 2023 recruiting class. MSU finished with the No. 42-ranked class in the country, with four-star wide receiver Nick Marsh and four-star linebacker Brady Pretzlaff in the fold. The 2025 recruiting cycle should give us a better idea of what to expect from Smith and his staff on the trail going forward.

2. Development alone isn't enough in new Big Ten

Despite relatively modest recruiting classes at Oregon State, Smith was able to steadily improve the Beavers' program due to excellent development of under-recruited players. That's the same model that former Michigan State head coach Mark Dantonio used for success in East Lansing, winning two Big Ten championships outright and sharing a third.

While development is always going to be a huge factor for a successful football program, and there's recent history of that approach working for MSU, is development of lower-rated high school prospects alone going to be enough for the Spartans to compete for championships in the new, expanded Big Ten? In addition to the annual contenders of Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State, Michigan State will also be competing against another historical power in USC and a modern power in Oregon — not to mention a Washington program which played for the national title a year ago.

Smith's ability to develop under-recruited talent will be a breath of fresh air for Spartan fans. Michigan State had one of the top developmental programs in the country during the height of the Dantonio era, but that piece of the program has fallen off sharply over the past six to seven years. Smith should get that back on track, but it's unclear if that will be enough for the Spartans to return to the top of the conference.

3. Smith's results don't meet high expectations

It's very possible that, over time, Smith returns Michigan State to being a consistently respectable program that averages eight to nine wins per season. But, as noted above, conference championships could be hard to come by in the new, deeper Big Ten. Is that going to be enough for Spartan fans?

The answer could come down to how often MSU is making College Football Playoff appearances under Smith. The playoff recently expanded to 12 participating teams, and that number could grow to 14 by as early as 2026. Given the expanded field, Michigan State should compete for a playoff spot more often than not in the near future. How quickly does MSU's fanbase expect Smith to lead the Spartans to a playoff spot? How often should Michigan State be a playoff team? Can Smith build the Spartans into a national title contender?

We aren't so far removed from the height of the Mark Dantonio era for Michigan State fans to forget how good things were in East Lansing not too long ago, when the Spartans won those three Big Ten championships, beat Michigan in seven out of eight seasons and had three finishes inside the nation's Top 6. If Smith returns MSU to respectability and is finishing top five in the Big Ten standings consistently, but is unable to deliver championships, how long will the fanbase want to keep him around?

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