The Michigan State Football Outlook Moving Forward: Central Michigan

Coming off their 35-21 win over Air Force in week three, the Spartans host the Central Michigan Chippewas this Saturday at 12:00 on the Big Ten Network.

Offense

Coming into 2015 it was unclear who Connor Cook’s go-to Wide Out would be. Of the Spartans coming back Cook probably had the best feel and most completions to Macgarrett Kings. Yet, as MSU prepares for the last game of September, Aaron Burbridge has surged out of the pack to establish himself as MSU’s best receiver and top target.

Burbridge was one of those 5-Star High School recruits some fans of this sport cannot get enough of. Alabama and other super powers around the nation wanted the 6’1 fleet footed pass catcher from Farmington Hills, Michigan. Some may claim that this service or that service didn’t rank him as a 5-Star, or moved him back to a 4-Star because he committed to MSU rather than one of the programs that literally support the recruiting rankings industry as a business, but who cares. How much does that ranking really matter after National Signing Day anyway? Burbridge was in high demand for good reason, and now everyone in the country is seeing why.

After flashes of brilliance and just enough of an injury bug to keep his play from reaching its potential, in 2015 it looks like it’s all coming together for this Senior. As Burbridge’s play has stepped up, he’s also beginning to make a case that he can play for a game check on Sundays in 2016. Burbridge knows that time is of the essence and that may be why we’re seeing him play and prepare with a newfound urgency, pushing beyond the adversity that slowed him in the past, and making big time plays. If Burbridge can keep after it at this pace all year, he will have a monster 2015, not just a big September.

Last week after Cook completed Touchdown pass number 3 to Burbridge for the day, MSU was up more than 3 scores (aka 25 points or more) and the stage was set to get another Quarterback in for meaningful playing time, not just handing the ball off. The Spartans chose to stick with Cook the rest of the way and did not get much out of it. Cook even took a few hits later on in the day that he had no business being in for. Cook’s enthusiasm for taking those hits aside, the decision to leave him in didn’t seem the wisest at that time, and it still doesn’t today.

MSU lost their edge after they went up 35-7. Just as we discussed in this article a week ago, a key to MSU’s amazing success over the past 30 games has been their commitment to play all 60 minutes as well as possible. The Spartan Offense sputtered out after putting 35 on the board, but did they really have to? There may have been an opportunity to keep their intensity and focus at a high level without showing up their academy opponent.

Anytime a team changes Quarterbacks during a game, there’s a different energy and attention level that comes out of an Offense. Had MSU subbed Cook out after MSU got the ball back at 35-14, the Offense would’ve been reenergized by the new signal caller(s). We have not seen enough from Tyler O’Connor or Damion Terry to know whether they can throw the ball well, whether they are solid before the snap getting MSU into what they want to run, or whether they can lead the Offense with authority at this level. Had one of those two Quarterbacks been inserted at that point, we would have begun the process of finding out. Perhaps it can happen this week.

MSU stayed with Cook and did not score another point all day. Backup Quarterbacks, a third Running Back, and other players down the depth chart could have benefited from entering the game for more snaps after MSU was up 35-14. It’s not as if Air Force possessed the “quick strike” threat needed to close such a huge gap.  MSU turned a blowout victory into a comfortable one as Air Force cut the final margin to less than two scores (less than 16 points). Going the final 26 minutes without scoring was not a great look, but MSU is ranked # 2 right now and these are the good kind of issues to have as a program.

This week look for a big effort from the MSU running game. Air Force did a good job shutting them down, and though Central Michigan has given up an average of just 128.3 yards per game so far, the Spartans need to get their running game into a higher gear before Big Ten play begins. If the Spartans think they can just line up and roll through the Chips D on account of their #2 AP Ranking, they need to check themselves. When you’re favored heavily, at home, against an in-state directional coming in with a chip on their shoulder, you do not want to end up operating as a one dimensional offense.

The Spartans Offense is not yet what it was in 2014, but we’re still only in September and their best performances should still be ahead of them. At the same time, we’re talking about a unit that’s scored more than 30-points in 11 straight games now, and you would have to expect Saturday will not break that streak. Looking at it from a broader perspective, that’s quite the scoring streak the Offense has put together. The question for this unit from this point is how they will get better on a week by week basis.

Defense

Air Force was one of the most difficult schematic challenges the Spartan Dawgs will face all year. After Saturday’s long day of work, the Spartans can attest that the Air Force version of the Triple Option is hard to handle. It makes Defenses work play after play, often messing with substitution patterns, and mentally tiring out its opponent on a regular basis. That’s how, with their limited practice time and other academy football constraints, Air Force has come up with a system that keeps them competitive with programs across the country.

The biggest goal of the Air Force effort was to avoid injury. Though MSU got bad news in the confirmation that Vayante Copeland was lost for the season (especially when you tack it onto the prior loss of Ed Davis), they appear to have made it out of the chop block-slash-cut block fiesta that was last Saturday. That was a big plus, though there were some late game worries.

MSU shuffled in Defensive Lineman when possible, but may have put a couple starters like Lawrence Thomas at risk by playing them later in the game. Thomas stayed down after a play late Saturday afternoon, sending great fear through the Spartan Nation, but it does not appear he was hurt to a significant extent. His play Saturday will shed more light on that topic.

Things have not gone perfect for the new era of the Spartan Dawgs, in losing two starters before September ends, but they are making lemonade when a lemon’s been there to snag. Last week R.J. Williamson led the secondary that’s done their part through three games gathering turnovers. MSU ranks 8th in the nation in Turnover Margin so far and is tied for 18th in Turnovers Gained. You can debate all Fall how much a team can actually do to create turnovers, but the Spartans are doing a good job of securing them when the opportunity has presented itself. Central Michigan has turned it over four times in the first three games, which bodes well for those trends to continue.

Riley Bullough will sit the 1st Half of Central Michigan because of a Targeting Penalty he picked up against Air Force. The rule does not provide much wiggle room for a hit like Bullough’s, which looked more circumstantial as far as the contact to the head and neck area than intentional. The game is played at full speed, replays are viewed in slow motion, but look for Bullough to bounce back from the situation and keep it clean the rest of the year. Serving time in the football equivalent of the penalty box should have the Spartan Dawgs on high alert for the rest of 2015 to avoid Targeting whenever possible.

Central Michigan is kind of a lost dog right now. Their Head Coach and familiar face Dan Enos skipped out of the shadow of the Soaring Eagle last offseason for an Offensive Coordinator post at Arkansas. Arkansas has some pretty big issues right now that Enos is right in the middle of. In his absence, the Chippewas have not yet fired up. Central is tied for 105th in Scoring Offense after three games and should expect a real challenge to reach their 23.7 point average Saturday afternoon.

Special Teams

Special Teams Coordinator Mark Snyder and his players know they are under the microscope because of this unit’s shaky performance early in 2015. As Spartan Football’s National Rankings ascend, so does the level of attention to any presumed weakness spotted in the team. Last Saturday there were some new faces running down kick coverage as the lineup continues to settles into itself for good. Under Dantonio, MSU has consistently sent the Spartans’ best athletes on the field and has done a good job of putting those players in position to make the kind of Special Teams plays that win the battle of field position.

MSU now has a real Place Kicking issue, however, because Michael Geiger missed badly on his sole 35-yard Field Goal attempt against Air Force. Going back to the Oregon game, when Geiger missed from 27-yards early on, his reaction to missing that kick right was concerning. Missing right the whole way was one thing, but Geiger looked dejected and hinted towards being a bit lost as he jogged off the field after that miss. That’s the concern Mark Dantonio and staff must have begun to address last Sunday. Though Geiger made an important kick later that night against Oregon, he looked bad enough and so low on confidence after missing badly against Air Force that an alarm must have been sound.

Technically, Geiger doesn’t look like he’s setting up properly before Field Goal tries. As all of you golfers out there know, if you’re lacking confidence in your setup, it usually translates into the strike. He’s likely to hit the video room hard in the coming weeks to find out where he may be “off,” and hopefully to also remind himself that in 2015 he’s ready not just to be the kicker he was in 2013, but to be a better kicker than ever. If Geiger doesn’t get his setup, performance, and confidence back soon, Mark Dantonio may have a decision to make before the thick of Big Ten play begins. The Spartans are not good enough to take the Field Goal option out of the playbook, or to let it be a 50/50 proposition, and still accomplish all the goals they are reaching higher for.

Central may not provide many opportunities for kick returns or Field Goals, but this unit needs every snap it can get to tighten things up. The Spartan Nation is worried after the wild wobbles seen from this unit in September. A better performance into October would calm those Special Teams concerns.

Overall

MSU did enough good against Air Force to lock up the win early in the 3rd Quarter, but then let some opportunities get away from them in the final quarter and a half. There’s rarely ever a call for showing an opponent up, but there’s also rarely, if ever, a reason to have your team ease up much when it comes to effort. Nebraska in the Tom Osborne era, Jimmy Johnson in his University of Miami days, and other coaches of perennial powers have tried to substitute the heck out of blowouts in order to preserve the level of their team’s effort without showing anyone up. Maybe it worked sometimes, maybe it didn’t, but the results (National Championships for those two coaches) added up big.

It’s not likely the mediocre final 25 minutes will affect MSU this year, but if teams get in the habit of pulling up on an opponent, eventually it can trip them up. In November of 2003, Oklahoma beat Texas A&M 77-0. After the game, people accused Bob Stoops of running it up. At the same time national commentators wondered if that Sooners team would go down as the best team in the history of College Football because they were smoking just about everyone they faced. Stoops insisted he didn’t run it up, but that team, and arguably that program haven’t been the same since the criticism and that season’s end. Did those accusations of running it up get into Oklahoma Football’s collective head? It’s hard to say, but it sure seemed that way as they not only lost that Big 12 Championship game, but also the BCS Championship game that year to a coach we all know and LSU.

Against Central, look for MSU to renew its commitment to play the best they can for all 60 minutes. It’s something they need to push for a little harder this week. As simple as it sounds, it’s the difference between teams that squeeze everything possible out of their potential and those that leave people wondering what happened, how it got away, and ultimately labeling a team (ex. Oklahoma in 2003) an underachiever. As long as MSU digs deep into their depth chart after getting way ahead on an overmatched opponent, this program does not need to worry about running it up too far against any opponent left on their schedule for as long as Michigan State University fields a football team. If the 3s and 4s are still scoring at will (See Nebraska at MSU, 1995), maybe then it would be time to run it up the middle 3 or 4 Downs in a row.

The 2015 Spartans have the opportunity to improve significantly in every phase of the game as they close out non-conference play, regardless of their #2 ranking. Does anyone remember who was #2 at the end of September in 2005, 2010, or even last year? Probably not, because the season ends in January. This is not the time to get anywhere complacent or satisfied. This is not the time to thump chest after making a big play in the 1st Half in just the fourth game of the year. Central Michigan is a game that MSU can show the nation, and thousands of new eyeballs checking out a little Michigan State Football on a Saturday, just how hungry this team is to Reach Higher. Any team’s going have a tough time reaching higher come season’s end if they’ve been consistently pulling up during too much of the Fall. It’s time for the Spartans to find that gas pedal again heading into October.

@JPSpartan

P. A. T. (Perhaps Another Thought…)

1. It’s time to adjust the Kick Off rules again. Placing Touchbacks at the 25 has become ridiculous. Moving it back to the 20 may not be enough. Let’s move the kicker back 3-5 yards, again, and start placing Touchbacks around the 17.5 yard line. Kick Offs may be inherently dangerous, but are far less so at the College level than in the NFL. This sport is being cheated by the current Kick Off setup.
2. When looking at Targeting Flags, Officials need to review them in real time as well as slow motion. The game is played at full speed, not in slow mo. Riley Bullough’s flag Saturday was a great example of the difference. That‘s a correction the NCAA can make relatively immediately, and can apply to other reviews as well.
3. Wow, how times have changed in the Big Ten. Michigan (10), Wisconsin (8), Illinois (5), and Iowa (2) have all been ranked inside the Top 10 of the most recent National Party School rankings from a major lifestyle and entertainment magazine. I don’t know how scientific these rankings are, but to compete seriously with the better weather schools for that kind of distinction takes some serious, serious effort.
4. Nice to hear ABC/ESPN broadcasters Brian Griese and Tom Luginbill crush a couple myths about the Spartans last Saturday relative to recruiting and the talent level Mark Dantonio has accumulated.  Funny that ESPN's the one most responsible for producing the MSU narrative in past seasons, now their own are blowing them up with the truth.