The Outlook Moving Forward: Nebraska

Coming off their bye week, the Spartans travel to Lincoln to face the Nebraska Cornhuskers at 7:00 p.m. on ESPN.

Offense

Two weeks ago we talked in detail about this unit’s struggles at Michigan. Against Indiana the struggles largely continued until the Hoosiers fell apart after the game was out of reach. That's when MSU ran in a couple Touchdowns to make the final 52-26. “The score didn’t really indicate how the game went,” Mark Dantonio confirmed on his post game radio show after the game. Though they finally put up a big total on the scoreboard, the Offense didn't get out of the Indiana win any healthier than they were going into it. Thankfully, the sorely needed bye week arrived to hopefully rejuvenate a unit that has not performed up to expectations through eight games.

Bill Parcells used to say “you are what your record says you are.” For the most part, that applies to statistics too. The Spartans start the week ranked 88th in Rushing Offense. MSU is 40th in Passing Offense, 43rd in Scoring Offense, and 59th in Total Offense. Those rankings are not outstanding, nor are they on the doorstep of becoming great. You can point to injuries, play calling, game planning, youth, and other things if you’re trying to explain why the MSU Offense has struggled in 2015. They’ve all contributed to a unit that’s looked overwhelmed, and too often unable to get the ball to players in the best situations to succeed. Perhaps we will see a drastically different looking Offense coming out of the bye. They should have a chance to look very good against a Defense that's on the verge of a complete meltdown.

Nebraska’s had big problems all over the field in 2015, especially at crunch time, but not when it comes to stopping the run. The Huskers rank 13th in Rushing Defense right now, giving up only 108.4 yards per game. If the Spartans want to make moving the ball and scoring more difficult Saturday night they need to only stay run-first-stubborn. Nebraska shouldn't give up many yards on the ground, especially in early downs, so look for MSU to either struggle again to run the ball effectively or to get more creative and throw more often on 1st Down.

As good as the Huskers have been at stopping the run, they’ve been a total disaster trying to defend the pass. The old “blackshirts” must cringe when they see that Nebraska ranks 124th out of 127 teams in Passing Yards Allowed. Talk about a green light for Connor Cook and the MSU stable of pass catchers! We know Mark Dantonio doesn’t want to throw the ball 50-times Saturday night, but maybe this week MSU should go after the passing holes in Nebraska’s Defense until the Huskers prove they can stop them.

The biggest reason Nebraska has the 92nd rated Total Defense going into November play is the issues they've had defending the pass. Giving up 28.1 points per game has Nebraska 75th in Scoring Defense, which must be another tough pill for the Husker faithful to swallow. Despite going on the road to arguably the best football environment in the Big Ten, Michigan State should score a bunch of points Saturday night. Cook should have ample opportunities to put up big numbers, and the MSU Offense should be far more than the 2015 Huskers Defense can handle. It's up to the Spartans to make those good things happen.

Defense

We’ll never know how good 2015 Spartan Dawgs could’ve been heading into November if they lined up at full strength all season, but we do know the current playing group turned the corner in October. Down at least three starters for the remainder of the season, the new era Spartan Dawgs may have stumbled a bit on the way to 8-0 but have been recently looking better and better by the week. As the leaves changed color this group gathered their feet and started to grow towards in identity. Their best football is still ahead of them, which is exactly how they want it starting November play.

Harlon Barnett and Mike Tressel made a national splash at Michigan when they kept MSU in a game so many thought they’d physically be unable to compete in. The Spartans Defensive Line took that game over and got stronger as that game went on. Their growth seemed to elevate the entire unit, which knows as a group that their best play is needed in November if the Spartans will earn a shot to play for championships in December. Going to Nebraska will give Spartan Nation a pretty good idea whether this unit can consistently play at a championship level because the Huskers do have some playmakers.

Nebraska may be a 3-6 football team but their Offense can move the ball. They rank 27th in Passing Offense, 69th in Rushing Offense, and 44th in Scoring Offense. Though they’re not elite and haven’t gotten enough points out of their scoring opportunities through October, they are not without the talent to convert more often in their final games. Tommy Armstrong (Quarterback) should be healthy again this week, and leads a unit that put up 45 at Purdue last week in his absence. The Huskers may be without some familiar-named skill players, but cannot be easily overlooked.

If MSU thinks they'll glide into Lincoln and just shut down the Huskers Offense like they did to some of the more limited attacks they faced earlier this year, they’re in for quite a surprise. But if this unit can pick up where they left before the bye week and continue to build off the power and speed of their front four, Saturday night could be a bit of a statement game for the 2015 Spartan Dawgs. The opportunity and talent is there for November to become the month that the Spartan Defense becomes dominant once again.

Special Teams

Overall, this unit has been a huge disappointment through October. One play, however, can make such an enormous difference. The "Michigan State Miracle" not only put Jalen Watts-Jackson on the national map, it saved the Spartans chances at a Playoff spot this year, kept Harbaugh-mania in check, and kept Paul Bunyan safely away from whatever life in Ann Arbor must entail. That play can never be celebrated enough, but the Spartans have serious work to do on Special Teams or it will cost them dearly before the end of 2015.

Alarm bells sounded from this unit during the opener at Western Michigan and have yet to go completely silent. At this point MSU needs to simply eliminate the big play that’s cost them too often on kick returns this year. No one is looking for this unit to make another play like we saw in Ann Arbor, they're just hoping the season's hopes and dreams don't go up in Special Teams smoke sometime this month. MSU begins November ranking 78th in Kickoff Return Defense and an astonishing 118th in Net Punting. That's a lot to overcome and as discussed in this article in past weeks, the Spartans’ Coaching Staff needed to take an “all hands on deck” approach to fixing their biggest Special Teams issues. It will be interesting to see how they did.

While the bye week should’ve given this unit a chance to clean up their kick coverage, who knows if the actual kickers will look any different in November. Hopefully a refreshed Michael Geiger has reviewed enough tape and put in the extra reps needed to rediscover his form of 2013. MSU also has to solidify their iffy Punt game as soon as possible. You cannot be near the bottom of the nation in Net Punting and find your way to the top of the final polls. Punts are too important to close games. No one really expects an MSU kicker to win them a game at this point, but there is a major concern that a kicker could end up costing them one.

The Spartan Nation's top fear as November play begins is that Special Teams will cost the team their first loss. This unit did not look prepared for 2015, but obviously they need to step their game up for November. It remains ironic that the play of the season came from this group, but if Mark Dantonio and company cannot fix the fundamental issues they have coming out of the bye week, prepare to hold your breath during Special Teams' Downs all month long.

Overall

Somehow the beat up Spartans made it to the bye week undefeated. It hasn’t been pretty, it hasn’t been very effective at times, but their play through October has them in position to compete for championships in November. That, in and of itself, is a real accomplishment. Yet, because so many of their wins have been less than dominant, MSU can expect they’ll need to win the rest of their games to earn a spot in the College Football Playoff. The idea of a 1-loss MSU team still earning a spot in that foursome should safely be forgotten at this point. But this program doesn’t spend much time looking that far ahead, nor too far behind. That psychological approach is definitely by design.

“The thing I’m most proud of is we’re 25-4 after we play a big game, an emotional game (since 2008),” Dantonio said after the gritty Indiana win. “That’s a measuring stick for everybody that ever comes here (to play).” What an impressive measuring stick that is when you look around the country each week to see teams either face plant or grasping for a bail out win. Saturday night MSU arrives to Lincoln with a chance to win their twelfth straight game for the first time since the 1950s. That's the state of Spartan Football right now, College Football Playoff committee members…and thanks for stopping by.

The Spartans needed the bye week in the worst way not only to get physically healthy, but also mentally refreshed. Hopefully that time gave the MSU Coaching Staff the opportunity to tweak things, in all three phases, to position this team to reach higher in November. Offensively, MSU needs to adjust its game plan to transition this unit from a slight underachiever into one that can produce with the best units in the country. They have the tools to do that, but if they stay with the same approach we’ve seen through eight games, expect their struggles to continue. Defensively the Spartan Dawgs need to continue to get pressure up front and otherwise keep building on the cohesive progress they put together leading up to the bye. On Special Teams, MSU can only hope to be sufficient in November and try to keep away from a massive gaffe that could cost them so much. Though the Spartans are a considerable favorite heading into Lincoln this week, they truly cannot show up expecting a total coast to victory.

A lot of new Head Coaches end up winning more games in their first year than expected, for a bunch of different reasons.  That is not going to happen at Nebraska during Mike Riley’s first season. The Huskers are a shocking 3-6 football team right now. Just as stunning, they're 1-4 in conference play. Many of those losses have come in a shocking fashion too, leaving the nation of Big Reds that cheered Bo Pelini’s dismissal after he went 66-27 over seven seasons with a whopping heap of disbelief. While the 2015 season may be already lost, if Mike Riley could somehow pull out a victory over the # 7 Spartans Saturday night in front of the home crowd, it would serve as a major turning point for his Huskers.

As Spartan Nation knows, the 2015 Spartans have been on a mission since early January. This team has been pointing to a berth in the College Football Playoff since the aftermath of the Cotton Bowl Comeback. The fact that they've arrived to November with all of their goals still possible is already a measure of success, though far from completing the great task at hand. Nothing but a championship effort will get the job done at Nebraska Saturday night.  Expect Michigan State Football to show up to Memorial Stadium with that in mind.

@JPSpartan

PA. T. (Perhaps Another Thought…)

1. The College Football Playoff is a business first. Keep that in mind when reacting to the early week’s rankings. The first set had Notre Dame and Alabama far too high, but logically placed in order to protect the Playoff's business interests. ESPN is dealing with unprecedented business challenges these days, and we haven't seen all the ink on the Playoff's contract with them. That may play a bigger factor in ranking these teams than anyone associated with the Playoff will ever admit. It might also explain why another committee member resigned last week before this year's process got underway.
2. The Gophers failed to manage the downside at the end of the Michigan game last week. Michigan was on the road, was stuck playing a backup Quarterback with next to no experience, and couldn’t stop the Gophers from gaining over 450 yards of Offense before they setup for that 1st and Goal. There’s no way the Gophers could let that drive end with anything less than a Field Goal try. Minnesota has great facilities now, has reestablished a programmatic identity, and should not become a “learn on the job” Head Coaching position. They should not elevate their interim Head Coach after that debacle that happened on Saturday night.
3. College Football may be in for a serious market correction if TV subscriber fees continue to nose dive. That could mean awful timing for the Big Ten, who was once practically assured of having the most lucrative TV deal of any conference. It could also be transformative news for Notre Dame, which may be out of luck if Comcast continues its trend of shredding its sports broadcasting efforts.
4. Top Four I have coming out of October, in alphabetical order: Alabama, Clemson, Michigan State, Ohio State. If we end up with a handful of 1-loss teams after the regular season ends, get ready for some serious controversy and heartache over the holiday season.