Looking Ahead to the WCC Women's Basketball Tournament

With five games left before the end of the regular seasons, the Oregon State women are in the hunt for a top seed in the West Coast Conference Tournament. Getting a top four seed would mean the Beavers wouldn't have to play until the quarterfinals. A top two seed would mean the Beavers are on bye until the semifinals. Both are in reach for Oregon State, but they have a lot of work to do.

Oregon State currently sits fourth in in the conference, but that position isn't stable. The Beavers are just half a game ahead of Saint Mary's and a game behind Washington State. Anything could change week to week. Finishing anywhere from second to seventh seems possible for the Beavers.

First is probably out of the question, unfortunately. On December 28th the Beavers traveled to Spokane and beat Gonzaga 71-67. Since then the Bulldogs have not lost, with star forward Yvonne Ejim winning the WCC's player of the week five times so far this season. Ejim isn't the only Bulldog racking up awards this season. Allie Turner won the WCC's Freshman of the Week for the seventh time this week, giving Gonzaga one of the most formidable starting pairs in the conference.

Even if the Beavers take down Gonzaga in their rematch this Thursday, they're going to need to get some help from the rest of the Bulldogs' opponents, and it doesn't seem likely that help is coming. Other than the Beavers Gonzaga has games remaining against LMU, Saint Mary's, San Francisco, Pacific and Santa Clara. San Francisco is the most interesting match up, as the Dons handed the Bulldogs their only other conference loss, but since that game San Francisco has stumbled while Gonzaga has soared.

So if first place is out of the picture, how about second? That's a little more feasible. The Beavers are 2.5 games behind Portland for the second seed, Portland's schedule is not too different from Gonzaga's, featuring games San Diego, Santa Clara, San Francisco and Pacifc. The middle and bottom of the WCC standings. Except for one game, a February 15th matchup against a very strong Washington State team.

The bad news for the Beavers is that the Cougars are currently third in the standings, so whoever wins between Portland and WSU has the inside track on the #2 seed in the conference tournament. It's probably better for the Beavers chances if Washington State takes that game; the Cougars are moderately more catch-able than the Pilots, but Oregon State would still need some help.

So, first place is probably out of the question, second place is possible but unlikely unless things really break the Beavers way. So now for question 3, can the Beavers hang on to their current spot and get a bye to the quarterfinals. And the odds here are pretty good.

Other than Thursday's game against Gonzaga, the Beavers have games remaining against Santa Clara, San Diego, Saint Mary's and Pepperdine. San Diego and Pepperdine are at the bottom of the conference standings, but the Santa Clara and Saint Mary's games are going to be pretty important for the Beavers. Saint Mary's is only a half game behind the Beavers with a game in hand, but in their first meeting this season Oregon State demolished the Gaels 80-45. Even if the Beavers slip a spot after a loss to Gonzaga, they can make it up with a repeat against Saint Mary's.

Santa Clara is more dangerous. They've been an unpredictable team this season, currently eighth in the standings but with a win over Washington State and close losses against some of the other top teams in the WCC. In their first meeting the Broncos took the Beavers to overtime before Oregon State finally prevailed 74-72. The Broncos would love to get that win back, and this should be one of the tougher match ups on Oregon State's closing slate.

Oregon State should be helped by the fact that SMU and Santa Clara both have fairly tough schedules over the next month. In addition to the Beavers, SMU also gets Portland, Gonzaga and Washington State. Santa Clara also gets Portland and Gonzaga, which should hopefully help the Beavers maintain their cushion.

That's a lot of words to say that the conference has a good chance at holding steady over the next two weeks, but there's also a high chance for chaos. If the Beavers can upset Gonzaga, the top seed in the conference tournament is suddenly up for grabs. It should be an exciting few weeks for Women's Basketball fans.