3 keys to victory for San Diego State against No. 1 Arizona on Saturday

Brian Dutcher's team has a major opportunity in front of them in Phoenix

Nov 25, 2025; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; San Diego State State Aztecs guard Miles Byrd (21) reacts in the second half against Oregon Ducks in a 2025 Players Era Festival group play game at Michelob Ultra Arena. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Brian Dutcher and the San Diego State Aztecs have an opportunity to pick up a massive, resume-altering victory on Saturday against No. 1 Arizona, with tip set for 7:30 PM PT at the Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix. The game will be broadcast on ESPN2.

The Aztecs (6-3) stumbled early in a heartbreaking 2OT loss to Troy, and took two more losses in Las Vegas against Michigan and Baylor, with a tidy 17-point win over Oregon sandwiched in between.

The damage to SDSU's resume is significant, but a win in a hostile semi-road environment against the No. 1-ranked team in the AP Poll would undoubtedly change the narrative around coach Dutcher's team before the schedule shifts to Mountain West play.

Arizona (10-0) is one of seven remaining undefeated teams in college basketball, and coach Tommy Lloyd's team has already picked up five incredibly impressive wins - beating the defending champion Florida Gators in Las Vegas, UCLA at the Intuit Dome in Los Angeles, at UConn, at home against Auburn, and against Alabama in Birmingham by a whopping 21 points.

The Wildcats have a unique blend of returning talent and exciting young stars, with veteran point guard Jaden Bradley, wing Anthony Dell'Orso, and big men Mo Krivas and Tobe Awaka, joined by a pair of freshman phenoms in forward Koa Peat and guard Brayden Burries.

Dutcher's club won't have it easy on Saturday evening, but there is a path to pulling off an upset in Phoenix - and it starts on the perimeter:

1. Stay hot from deep

The Aztecs are shooting 41.1% from three as a team, the fifth-highest mark in college basketball according to KenPom. While they don't rely heavily on the outside shot, averaging just over 21 attempts per game, being able to space the floor will disrupt Arizona's defense and could open up driving lanes for SDSU's guards to get downhill to the rim.

The 'Cats have been great defensively this season, holding opponents to just a 39.7% clip from the field, but they have not been bulletproof: Alabama shot 37.5% (12-32) while UCLA (52.9%) and even Denver (37.5%) had strong nights from distance as well.

San Diego State Aztecs guard BJ Davis (10). | Photo courtesy of San Diego State University Athletics

BJ Davis (53.3%) has been SDSU's top marksman this year, but it will take more than just his contribution to knock off Arizona. Veteran guards Reese Waters (32.5%) and Miles Byrd (35%) both need to get hot from the perimeter to force Arizona into uncomfortable situations defensively, which paves a path for an upset for the Aztecs.

2. Limit second chance opportunities

This is far easier said than done against Arizona, one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. Led by Awaka and Krivas, Arizona grabs 40.5% of available offensive rebounds - the fifth-best mark in the country.

The Aztecs have done a good job of keeping teams off the glass this season, but Arizona is a different animal and will require Miles Heide, Magoon Gwath, and reserve big Jeremiah Oden to be relentlessly pursuing boards all game long.

Nov 29, 2025; Tucson, Arizona, USA; Arizona Wildcats head coach Tommy Lloyd yells at guard Dwayne Aristode (2) during the second half against the Norfolk State Spartans at McKale Memorial Center. | Aryanna Frank-Imagn Images

Arizona is far too efficient of a team offensively to give them more than one chance to score on any given possession.

3. Get Miles Byrd going

It was considered a huge storyline that San Diego State got junior Miles Byrd back for the 2025-26 season, and the 6'7 guard has shown flashes of the excellence that made him a likely pick in the 2025 NBA draft.

However, scoring consistency has been a major issue for Byrd this year. He's had four games of 13+ points - including 13 against Baylor and 19 against Lamar - but has also wilted in multiple recent games. The guard scored just two points on 1-8 shooting in the Mountain West opener against Air Force on Wednesday, and failed to score at all against Utah Valley back on Dec. 3.

San Diego State Aztecs guard Miles Byrd (21). | Photo courtesy of San Diego State University Athletics

A limited offensive performance from Byrd is a massive issue for SDSU against a potent Arizona squad, but if he can find his outside shot and/or put pressure on the rim on Saturday in Phoenix, it would go a long way toward San Diego State pulling off a major upset and getting back on the national radar.