3 keys to victory for San Diego State Aztecs vs. Colorado State Rams

What does Brian Dutcher's team need to do against a sharp shooting CSU squad?

Dec 20, 2025; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; San Diego State Aztecs head coach Brian Dutcher against the Arizona Wildcats during the Hall of Fame Series at Mortgage Matchup Center. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Brian Dutcher and the San Diego State Aztecs sit atop the standings in their final season as members of the Mountain West conference, boasting an 8-1 record in league play after an 11-point road win over UNLV on Saturday.

SDSU will have another solid test on Wednesday at home against Colorado State, just their second matchup against a team that will join them in the new-look Pac-12 next season. The Aztecs defeated Boise State in three overtimes back on Jan. 3.

Dutcher and company will hope for fewer fireworks against a struggling Colorado State team that is tied for eighth in the MWC with a 3-6 record. CSU did go 9-2 in non-con play, which included nice wins over Colorado, South Florida, and Wichita State, but it has been a disappointing run through league play for first-year head coach Ali Farokhmanesh.

The Rams made the NCAA Tournament in three of Niko Medved's final four years in Fort Collins, capped by a win over No. 5 seed Memphis last year before falling on a buzzer-beater to No. 4 seed Maryland in the Round of 32.

Medved parlayed his success into a gig at Minnesota in the Big Ten, while the Rams turned to Farokhmanesh, a longtime assistant coach and former March Madness legend from his time as a player at Northern Iowa from 2008-2010.

The Aztecs are favored to win this game, especially since it is back at home, with KenPom projecting a 77-68 final score in favor of SDSU.

In order for that projection to become a reality, here are three things coach Dutcher's squad will need to do on Wednesday:

1. Lock down on the perimeter

Farokhmanesh was known for his outside shooting while at Northern Iowa, and that trait has bled over into his coaching. The Rams are the top three-point shooting team in the country at 41.5%, averaging 10.5 makes on 25.5 attempts per game.

The team's four leading scorers - Kyle Jorgensen, Brandon Rechsteiner, Josh Pascarelli, and Carey Booth - all shoot over 42% from three, making this team particularly tough to defend. Jorgensen went 5-6 in CSU's latest game - a four-point loss to Utah State - which raised his season average to a blistering 53.5% on over three attempts per game.

Colorado State's Kyle Jorgensen celebrates after hitting a three point shot during a game against Utah State at Moby Arena on Jan. 23, 2026 in Fort Collins, Colo. | Logan Newell/The Coloradoan / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Meanwhile, Rechsteiner (42% on 6.6 3PA/G) and Pascarelli (44.9% on 5.9 3PA/G) are high-volume snipers, while Jase Butler (41.7%) and Augustinas Kiudulas (45%) add even more perimeter shooting off the bench.

The Aztecs have defended the perimeter quite well overall this year, holding opponents to 33.5% from deep, but there have been plenty of concerning outlier performances - including Grand Canyon shooting 10-21 last week in SDSU's first conference loss, as well as New Mexico shooting 40% the previous game and a four game stretch in late November-early December where Oregon, Baylor, Utah Valley, and Lamar each shot over 37%.

If Miles Byrd, Reese Waters, and the rest of SDSU's perimeter defenders step up and keep the Rams from gaining momentum on the outside, it will go a long way toward a win at Viejas Arena.

2. Win the turnover battle

Frankly, this shouldn't be a problem. Colorado State turns the ball over 21% of the time in conference play, according to KenPom, which puts them only ahead of Air Force in the Mountain West. Meanwhile, SDSU forces turnovers at a similar rate, 20.5% of the time, which includes an excellent 12.1% steal rate.

The flip side of this is that San Diego State also has ball security issues, turning it over 17.1% of the time in league play, but Colorado State is not nearly as good at forcing turnovers on the defensive end.

The Rams average just 5.5 steals per game - 314th in the country - and opponents turn the ball over an average of 10 times per game against them, which is all the way down at 334th.

For the Aztecs, this means not making stupid mistakes with the basketball. If Byrd, Waters, and Elzie Harrington can limit the unnecessary turnovers - travelling, wild passes, etc. - SDSU should get more shots up in this one, which will counter CSU's outside shooting and help lead to a victory.

3. Let Byrd cook

Miles Byrd put his name in the 2025 NBA draft process and was widely expected to leave SDSU and begin his pro career. The 6'7 wing ultimately came back to school, with high expectations as a potential breakout star.

While his numbers have dipped a bit thanks to more scoring around him, Byrd has improved his efficiency on twos (from 48.5 to 51.8%) and from deep (30.1 to 34.6%) and has been absolutely rolling as of late.

Dec 20, 2025; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; San Diego State Aztecs guard Miles Byrd (21). | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The lockdown defender has scored 20+ points in two of San Diego State's last three games: a 21-point, eight-rebound, four-block, three-steal, three-assist masterclass against New Mexico on Jan. 17, as well as a 23-point, five-assist, four-steal game with perfect 5-5 shooting from three against UNLV on Saturday.

Byrd is the best all-around player for the Aztecs, and against a CSU team that struggles defensively but can really score from the perimeter, Byrd's performance will be paramount to the Aztecs securing a victory here and a 9-1 start to league play.

The game tips off on Wednesday evening at 7:30 PM PT and will be broadcast on FS1.